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Author: Francis Fukuyama
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 0815729898
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 208
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Book Description
A host of catastrophes, natural and otherwise, as well as some pleasant surprises—like the sudden end of the cold war without a shot being fired—have caught governments and societies unprepared many times in recent decades. September 11 is only the most obvious recent example among many unforeseen events that have changed, even redefined our lives. We have every reason to expect more such events in future. Several kinds of unanticipated scenarios—particularly those of low probability and high impact—have the potential to escalate into systemic crises. Even positive surprises can be major policy challenges. Anticipating and managing low-probability events is a critically important challenge to contemporary policymakers, who increasingly recognize that they lack the analytical tools to do so. Developing such tools is the focus of this insightful and perceptive volume, edited by renowned author Francis Fukuyama and sponsored by The American Interest magazine. Bl indside is organized into four main sections. "Thinking about Strategic Surprise" addresses the psychological and institutional obstacles that prevent leaders from planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating the necessary resources to deal with them. The following two sections pinpoint the failures—institutional as well as personal—that allowed key historical events to take leaders by surprise, and examine the philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. In "Pollyana vs. Cassandra," for example, James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook debate the future state of the world going forward. Mitchell Waldrop explores why technology forecasting is so poor and why that is likely to remain the case. In the book's final section, "What Could Be," internationally renowned authorities discuss low probability, high-impact contingencies in their area of expertise. For example, Scott Barrett looks at emerging infectious diseases, while Gal Luft and Anne Korin discuss energy security. How can we avoid
Author: Francis Fukuyama
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 0815729898
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 208
Get Book Here
Book Description
A host of catastrophes, natural and otherwise, as well as some pleasant surprises—like the sudden end of the cold war without a shot being fired—have caught governments and societies unprepared many times in recent decades. September 11 is only the most obvious recent example among many unforeseen events that have changed, even redefined our lives. We have every reason to expect more such events in future. Several kinds of unanticipated scenarios—particularly those of low probability and high impact—have the potential to escalate into systemic crises. Even positive surprises can be major policy challenges. Anticipating and managing low-probability events is a critically important challenge to contemporary policymakers, who increasingly recognize that they lack the analytical tools to do so. Developing such tools is the focus of this insightful and perceptive volume, edited by renowned author Francis Fukuyama and sponsored by The American Interest magazine. Bl indside is organized into four main sections. "Thinking about Strategic Surprise" addresses the psychological and institutional obstacles that prevent leaders from planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating the necessary resources to deal with them. The following two sections pinpoint the failures—institutional as well as personal—that allowed key historical events to take leaders by surprise, and examine the philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. In "Pollyana vs. Cassandra," for example, James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook debate the future state of the world going forward. Mitchell Waldrop explores why technology forecasting is so poor and why that is likely to remain the case. In the book's final section, "What Could Be," internationally renowned authorities discuss low probability, high-impact contingencies in their area of expertise. For example, Scott Barrett looks at emerging infectious diseases, while Gal Luft and Anne Korin discuss energy security. How can we avoid
Author: Michael Lewis
Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company
ISBN: 0393330478
Category : Biography & Autobiography
Languages : en
Pages : 346
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Book Description
Story of Michael Oher, a rising gridiron star, who was rescued from the ghettos of Memphis and placed with a wealthy family to help develop his football skills.
Author: Zoe Cannon
Publisher: Z.J. Cannon
ISBN:
Category : Fiction
Languages : en
Pages : 326
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Book Description
All's fair in love and war... Mal and Bastian have always known that when Humanity Ascendant declares war on the gods, they’ll be fighting on opposite sides. But that’s always felt like a problem for another day. Not anymore. Mal knows Bastian won’t live to see the end of this fight The only question is how many of Mal’s friends he’ll take down with him. Unless Mal stops the war before it starts. She has one shot, and she’s going to take it. Even if that means defying her god. Even if it means deceiving her allies. Even if it means losing Bastian...
Author: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107025060
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 593
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Book Description
Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. This Special Report explores the social as well as physical dimensions of weather- and climate-related disasters, considering opportunities for managing risks at local to international scales. SREX was approved and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November 2011 in Kampala, Uganda.
Author: Lynda Smiley
Publisher: Partridge Africa
ISBN: 148280574X
Category : Body, Mind & Spirit
Languages : en
Pages : 269
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Book Description
On the blind side is an account of the rehabilitation of some of the men and women Lynda has trained when they lost their sight either through accident or illness or on the battlefield. They are all heroes. Theirs are stories of bravery and courage, of hope and fulfillment. Arriving at the Enid Whitaker Rehabilitation for the Blind at a crisis point in their lives, often suicidal, always downcast, they departed on completion of their course full of new ambition to conquer the world. Running in tandem with the stories of the rehabilitees are brief vignettes from Lyndas own history, glimpses into how she came to take up the work she did. The contents include chapters such as: In the beginningLyndas own background for doing the work Clash of the Titians a case history of one of the students Pancakes and snow...an account of optacon teaching Too much sugar about Diabetes Mellitus The book should appeal to the general reader, to those facing impending loss of sight, and those who are already blind, as well as to professionals in the field of blindness. It is an essentially human story of hope and courage which Lynda had the privilege to witness many, many times in the course of her career as the first locally trained Mobility Instructress in South Africa. Lynda was employed by the South African National Council for the Blind and later by St Dunstans for War Blinded Veterans.Today she freelances in the community.
Author: Geraldine Murfin-Shaw
Publisher: Lulu.com
ISBN: 1326774115
Category : Biography & Autobiography
Languages : en
Pages : 390
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Book Description
Downing tools in the allotment where they have toiled for the last six years, Valerie and her husband Wolfram decide to cycle to Germany to visit his mother. Before they leave, Val's guide the Aztec Priest appears among the bean rows and tells her this will be a Vision Quest - and so it turns out to be, not least due to their involvement in Channel 4's 'Real Holiday Show'. In spite of the dangers they encounter on this trip they develop an appetite for foreign parts and embark on many subsequent cycling adventures, all of which turn out more or less disastrously. Travel with them as they ride through France, Italy and their beloved Black Forest - the stoic Val shouting instructions from behind as the hapless blind Wolf does his best to avoid hitting anything. Share their horrors and delights at the larger-than-life characters they meet abroad and the comradeship of their Asian neighbours on the allotments. A heartwarming and spiritual tale of two lives inextricably intertwined - until Fate intervened.
Author: Justin Henshell
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 131721188X
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 332
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Book Description
The ever evolving technology of waterproofing presents challenges and risks for architects and engineers who do not specialize in the field. The revised edition of The Manual of Below-Grade Waterproofing Systems provides the education and product information to enable designers to take a sound, fundamental approach to these contemporary challenges. Building designers specify waterproofing systems and materials that are often based on limited and subjective manufacturers’ literature or past experience with systems that work under specific conditions, but will fail in other installations. Leakage usually leads to litigation. This book gives you the tools to prevent that. This manual covers the history and science of waterproofing materials, the considerable distinctions between waterproofing roofs and plazas and below-grade surfaces, the critical procedures for protecting waterproofing materials during construction, diagnosing and remediating leaks, writing specifications, and detailing waterproofing components. The pros and cons of every waterproofing material and system are comprehensively covered. You will learn how to: • weigh positive- versus negative-side waterproofing systems • weigh dampproofing versus waterproofing • coordinate with all the professionals in the waterproofing delivery chain • follow environmental protection and government regulations This book is an essential resource for architects, civil engineers, contractors, designers, materials manufacturers, and all other professionals involved with the design and construction of underground spaces.
Author: Alex G. Malloy
Publisher: Antique Trader
ISBN: 9780930625856
Category : Antiques & Collectibles
Languages : en
Pages : 724
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Book Description
With more than 30,000 updated prices and over 650 photos and illustrations, "Comics Values Annual" provides an indispensable reference for dealers and collectors of all types of comics. Malloy offers reader-friendly grading and pricing charts, arranged by publisher, plus regional market reports from the nation's top experts and interviews with comics illustrators and writers.
Author: Gerhard Frank
Publisher: LIT Verlag Münster
ISBN: 3643801114
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 353
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Book Description
Philosopher, natural scientist, and dramaturge to theme parks, museums, zoos, and other types of venues, Frank has been in the global attraction business for 25 years. He draws on that background and on his education in zoology and human biology (U. of Vienna) to study human experience with the same scientific vigor that human cognition has been studied for three decades. He discusses what human experience consists of, the making of reality, how to design attractions and experiences, a system-related classification, a process-related classification, and on the verge of a new attraction era. Distributed in the US by ISBS. Annotation ©2012 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com).
Author: Louise Simonson
Publisher: Brighter Minds Children's Publishin
ISBN: 9781577911791
Category : Juvenile Fiction
Languages : en
Pages : 98
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Book Description
