Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
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Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author: Martin Eichenbaum
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 022639574X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 517
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Book Description
This year, the NBER Macroeconomics Annual celebrates its thirtieth volume. The first two papers examine China’s macroeconomic development. “Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy” by Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha outlines the key characteristics of growth and business cycles in China. “Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom” by Hanming Fang, Quanlin Gu, Wei Xiong, and Li-An Zhou constructs a new house price index, showing that Chinese house prices have grown by ten percent per year over the past decade. The third paper, “External and Public Debt Crises” by Cristina Arellano, Andrew Atkeson, and Mark Wright, asks why there appear to be large differences across countries and subnational jurisdictions in the effect of rising public debts on economic outcomes. The fourth, “Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration” by Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, and William Kerr, explains how the network structure of the US economy propagates the effect of gross output productivity shocks across upstream and downstream sectors. The fifth and sixth papers investigate the usefulness of surveys of household’s beliefs for understanding economic phenomena. “Expectations and Investment,” by Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer, demonstrates that a chief financial officer's expectations of a firm's future earnings growth is related to both the planned and actual future investment of that firm. “Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation” by Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura shows that an increasing number of prime-age Americans who are not in the labor force report no desire to work and that this decline accelerated during the second half of the 1990s.
Author: Shu-Heng Chen
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0190877502
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 785
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Book Description
The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance provides a survey of both the foundations of and recent advances in the frontiers of analysis and action. It is both historically and interdisciplinarily rich and also tightly connected to the rise of digital society. It begins with the conventional view of computational economics, including recent algorithmic development in computing rational expectations, volatility, and general equilibrium. It then moves from traditional computing in economics and finance to recent developments in natural computing, including applications of nature-inspired intelligence, genetic programming, swarm intelligence, and fuzzy logic. Also examined are recent developments of network and agent-based computing in economics. How these approaches are applied is examined in chapters on such subjects as trading robots and automated markets. The last part deals with the epistemology of simulation in its trinity form with the integration of simulation, computation, and dynamics. Distinctive is the focus on natural computationalism and the examination of the implications of intelligent machines for the future of computational economics and finance. Not merely individual robots, but whole integrated systems are extending their "immigration" to the world of Homo sapiens, or symbiogenesis.
Author: Philippe Aghion
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 9780691094854
Category : Biography & Autobiography
Languages : en
Pages : 596
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Book Description
Assembling some of the leading figures in the field of macroeconomics, this text highlights the continuing influence of the ideas of Edmund Phelps since the early 1960s. The contributions address many of the most important current areas of macroeconomic research in 2003.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 145197020X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
This paper presents a brief survey of the empirical literature on survey-based exchange rate expectations. The literature in general supports the presence of a non-zero risk premium and rejects the hypothesis of rational expectations. The crucial result is that, while short-run expectations tend to move away from some long-run “normal” values, long-run expectations tend to regress toward them. If this nature of short-run expectations increases the volatility of exchange rate movements, there may be a basis for some official measure to minimize short-run exchange rate movements.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Banks and banking
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
Author: Gail Bliss
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Transport workers
Languages : en
Pages : 94
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Book Description
Author: Arie Arnon
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030413578
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 244
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Book Description
This book provides a unique historical perspective on expectations in economic theory, and applications of expectations models in economic history. Based on papers presented at the 2017 Thomas Guggenheim Conference, it brings together the work of economists, historians of economics, and economic historians on issues and events concerning expectations in economics and economic history. The contributions address: (i) the history of expectations models; (ii) growth, expectations and political economy; (iii) controversies regarding expectations methods and models; (iv) expectations in theory and reality; and (v) expectations in economic history. The book opens with a lecture by Thomas Guggenheim Prize winner Duncan Foley on the evolution of expectations in modern economic thought. The remaining content is divided into two parts, the first of which focuses on the utilization of expectations in the “ancient” and “meso” periods of high theory, i.e., from Smithian to Keynesian approaches. The papers cover topics such as “modern” applications of expectations in both “Tobinesque-Phillips” and “Harrodian-Solowian” contexts, and the debate between Friedmanite and Keynesian approaches to expectation formation. In turn, the last part presents essays on the role of economic expectations in connection with historical events and contexts, ranging from the early 20th century to World War II, and on the application of expectations theory to hyperinflation and stabilization, taking Israel as a case study.
Author: Mr.Rudolfs Bems
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 148439223X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks for countries with flexible exchange rates. We find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.
Author: Emanuel Kopp
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484363671
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 22
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Book Description
In recent years, term premia have been very low and sometimes even negative. Now, with the United States economy growing above potential, inflationary pressures are on the rise. Term premia are very sensitive to the expected future path of growth, inflation, and monetary policy, and an inflation surprise could require monetary policy to tighten faster than anticipated, inducing to a sudden decompression of term and other risk premia, thus tightening financial conditions. This paper proposes a semi-structural dynamic term structure model augmented with macroeconomic factors to include cyclical dynamics with a focus on medium- to long-run forecasts. Our results clearly show that a macroeconomic approach is warranted: While term premium estimates are in line with those from other studies, we provide (i) plausible, stable estimates of expected long-term interest rates and (ii) forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates as well as cyclical macroeconomic variables that are stunningly close to those generated from large-scale macroeconomic models.
