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Author: Luis Molinas Sosa
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108897924
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 55
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Book Description
Since Meese and Rogoff (1983) results showed that no model could outperform a random walk in predicting exchange rates. Many papers have tried to find a forecasting methodology that could beat the random walk, at least for certain forecasting periods. This Element compares the Purchasing Power Parity, the Uncovered Interest Rate, the Sticky Price, the Bayesian Model Averaging, and the Bayesian Vector Autoregression models to the random walk benchmark in forecasting exchange rates between most South American currencies and the US Dollar, and between the Paraguayan Guarani and the Brazilian Real and the Argentinian Peso. Forecasts are evaluated under the criteria of Root Mean Square Error, Direction of Change, and the Diebold-Mariano statistic. The results indicate that the two Bayesian models have greater forecasting power and that there is little evidence in favor of using the other three fundamentals models, except Purchasing Power Parity at longer forecasting horizons.
Author: Luis Molinas Sosa
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108897924
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 55
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Book Description
Since Meese and Rogoff (1983) results showed that no model could outperform a random walk in predicting exchange rates. Many papers have tried to find a forecasting methodology that could beat the random walk, at least for certain forecasting periods. This Element compares the Purchasing Power Parity, the Uncovered Interest Rate, the Sticky Price, the Bayesian Model Averaging, and the Bayesian Vector Autoregression models to the random walk benchmark in forecasting exchange rates between most South American currencies and the US Dollar, and between the Paraguayan Guarani and the Brazilian Real and the Argentinian Peso. Forecasts are evaluated under the criteria of Root Mean Square Error, Direction of Change, and the Diebold-Mariano statistic. The results indicate that the two Bayesian models have greater forecasting power and that there is little evidence in favor of using the other three fundamentals models, except Purchasing Power Parity at longer forecasting horizons.
Author: Felipe Larraín B.
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
Reviews some empirical evidence on the recent performance of alternative exchange rate arrangements in emerging markets. Examines the concrete circumstances under which either polar regime should be adopted. Studies how to make flexibility work in practice, with special attention to inflation targets and alternativie monetary policy rules. Focuses on the possible role of capital controls as a complementary policy.
Author: Mr.Marcos d Chamon
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484375688
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 320
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Book Description
Foreign exchange intervention is widely used as a policy tool, particularly in emerging markets, but many facets of this tool remain limited, especially in the context of flexible exchange rate regimes. The Latin American experience can be informative because some of its largest countries adopted floating exchange rate regimes and inflation targeting while continuing to intervene in foreign exchange markets. This edited volume reviews detailed accounts from several Latin American countries’ central banks, and it provides insight into how and with what aim many interventions were decided and implemented. This book documents the effectiveness of intervention and pays special attention to the role of foreign exchange intervention policy within inflation-targeting monetary frameworks. The main lesson from Latin America’s foreign exchange interventions, in the context of inflation targeting, is that the region has had a considerable degree of success. Transparency and a clear communication policy have been key. For economies that are not highly dollarized, rules-based intervention helped contain financial instability and build international reserves while preserving inflation targets. The Latin American experience can help other countries in the design and implementation of their policies.
Author: Ricardo Ffrench-Davis
Publisher: Santiago : ECLAC, Office of the Executive Secretary
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
This paper examines the foreign exchange systems adopted by Argentina, Chile and Mexico during the Asian crisis, a time when intermediate exchange rate regimes proved to be ineffective and ceased to be used. Argentina opted for a pegged foreign exchange system, Chile for a band exchange system, and Mexico implemented a float exchange system. The paper evaluates how the different exchange rate systems had an impact on financial stability and the productive sectors in the countries.
Author: Carol Wise
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 9780815716846
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 196
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Book Description
Most of the analysis of Latin American exchange rate problems and policies has concentrated on the economic side of things. This volume instead examines the politics of exchange rate management in four nations that had very different approaches and results. Although the Mexican peso crash, Brazil's currency crisis, Argentina's maintenance of a currency board, and Venezuelan policy responses to the shocks of 1997-98 have had major international financial ramifications, the origins and outcomes of these dramatic events have yet to be analyzed in a single volume. The contributors tie these policy episodes together using solid comparative analysis, in order to better inform the policy debate on these issues.
Author: Sebastian Edwards
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 45
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Book Description
Abstract: In this paper I discuss some of the most important lessons on exchange rate policies in emerging markets during the last 35 years. The analysis is undertaken from the perspective of both the Latin American and East Asian nations. Some of the topics addressed include: the relationship between exchange rate regimes and growth, the costs of currency crises, the merits of â??dollarization, â?? the relation between exchange rates and macroeconomic stability, monetary independence under alternative exchange rate arrangements, and the effects of the recent global â??currency warsâ?? on exchange rates in commodity exporters.
Author: Andrés Velasco
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange rates
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Book Description
Author: Gilbert Le Gras
Publisher: Financial Times/Prentice Hall
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 384
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Book Description
With democratic governments and new economic controls in place, and monetary union a distinct possibility, South American economies once again seem attractive to industry and investors. The New New World examines the politics, markets, infrastructure, commodities and demographics of the Mercosur and Andean Community nations. It evaluates the South American markets for both current and future investors and will aid your assessment of the viability and return on investments in this new world.
Author: Augusto de la Torre
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 0821365444
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 232
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Book Description
Back in the early 1990s, economists and policy makers had high expectations about the prospects for domestic capital market development in emerging economies, particularly in Latin America. Unfortunately, they are now faced with disheartening results. Stock and bond markets remain illiquid and segmented. Debt is concentrated at the short end of the maturity spectrum and denominated in foreign currency, exposing countries to maturity and currency risk. Capital markets in Latin America look particularly underdeveloped when considering the many efforts undertaken to improve the macroeconomic environment and to reform the institutions believed to foster capital market development. The disappointing performance has made conventional policy recommendations questionable, at best. 'Emerging Capital Markets and Globalization' analyzes where we stand and where we are heading on capital market development. First, it takes stock of the state and evolution of Latin American capital markets and related reforms over time and relative to other countries. Second, it analyzes the factors related to the development of capital markets, with particular interest on measuring the impact of reforms. And third, in light of this analysis, it discusses the prospects for capital market development in Latin America and emerging economies and the implications for the reform agenda.
Author: Chrystell Flota
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange rates
Languages : en
Pages : 212
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Book Description
