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Author: Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Currency fluctuations provide a substantial source of movements in relative prices that is largely exogenous to the firm. This paper evaluates empirically and theoretically the importance of exchange rate movements on job reallocation across and within sectors. The objective is (1) to provide accurate estimates of the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, and (2) to further our understanding of how reallocative shocks propagate through the economy. The empirical results indicate that exchange rates have a significant effect of gross and net job flows in the traded goods sector. Moreover, the paper finds that job creation and destruction comove positively, following a real exchange rate shock. Appreciations are associated with additional turbulence, and depreciations with a "chill." The paper than argues that existing non-representative agent reallocation models have a hard time replicating the salient features of the data. The results indicate a strong tension between the positive comovements of gross flows in response to reallocative disturbances and the negative comovement in response to aggregate shocks.
Author: Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Currency fluctuations provide a substantial source of movements in relative prices that is largely exogenous to the firm. This paper evaluates empirically and theoretically the importance of exchange rate movements on job reallocation across and within sectors. The objective is (1) to provide accurate estimates of the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, and (2) to further our understanding of how reallocative shocks propagate through the economy. The empirical results indicate that exchange rates have a significant effect of gross and net job flows in the traded goods sector. Moreover, the paper finds that job creation and destruction comove positively, following a real exchange rate shock. Appreciations are associated with additional turbulence, and depreciations with a "chill." The paper than argues that existing non-representative agent reallocation models have a hard time replicating the salient features of the data. The results indicate a strong tension between the positive comovements of gross flows in response to reallocative disturbances and the negative comovement in response to aggregate shocks.
Author: Eddy Bekkers
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We study the labor market effects of realignment in fixed bilateral exchange rates, such as China's peg to the US dollar. We employ the open economy model by de Melo and Robinson to identify the core parameters of the real, trade side of the economy driving the unemployment effects of bilateral exchange rate realignment. A small open economy version of the model is explored analytically and a large multicountry version numerically. Analytics in the small open economy model show that unemployment effects of adjusting of a bilateral peg hinge on the fraction exported to and imported from the trading partner. A larger fraction exported to and a smaller fraction imported from the trading partner make it more likely that revaluation of a trading partner's currency has beneficial effects. Numerics in the large economy model show that Chinese revaluation can generate both positive and negative unemployment effects depending upon underlying parameter values. Adverse unemployment effects can go along with an improving trade balance.
Author: Linda S. Goldberg
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
The effects of exchange rate fluctuations across the population is an important issue for increasingly globalized economies. Previous studies using industry aggregate data have found differences across industries in the labor market implications of exchange rates, reporting that industry wages are significantly more responsive than industry employment. We offer an explanation for this paradoxical finding. Using Current Population Survey data for 1976 through 1998, we document that the main mechanism for exchange rate effects on wages occurs through job turnover and the strong consequences this has for the wages of workers undergoing such job transitions. By contrast, workers who remain with the same employer experience little if any wage impacts from exchange rate shocks. In addition, we find that the least educated workers who also have the most frequent job changes shoulder the largest adjustments to exchange rates.
Author: Karl Brunner
Publisher: North-Holland
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 268
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Book Description
Author: Wanjoong Kim
Publisher: 대외경제정책연구원
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange rates
Languages : en
Pages : 58
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Book Description
Author: Haifang Huang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We estimate the effects of exchange rate on U.S. employment, exploiting differences in industrial composition across major cities. We find that a 1% depreciation of export-weighted real exchange rate has a positive 0.98% direct effect on manufacturing employment. Its indirect effect on local nonmanufacturing employment rises with the size of the local manufacturing sector, consistent with the hypothesis that there exists a local spillover from the tradable to the nontradable sector. In cities with heavy concentration of manufacturing employment, the indirect effect is statistically significant and about 60% as large as the direct effect measured by the number of jobs.
Author: Robert Alexander Mundell
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Employment stabilization
Languages : en
Pages : 22
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Author: Richard C. Marston
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226507254
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 332
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Book Description
Economists writing on flexible exchange rates in the 1960s foresaw neither the magnitude nor the persistence of the changes in real exchange rates that have occurred in the last fifteen years. Unexpectedly large movements in relative prices have lead to sharp changes in exports and imports, disrupting normal trading relations and causing shifts in employment and output. Many of the largest changes are not equilibrium adjustments to real disturbances but represent instead sustained departures from long-run equilibrium levels, with real exchange rates remaining "misaligned" for years at a time. Contributors to Misalignment of Exchange Rates address a series of questions about misalignment. Several papers investigate the causes of misalignment and the extent to which observed movements in real exchange rates can be attributed to misalignment. These studies are conducted both empirically, through the experiences of the United States, Great Britain, Japan, and the countries of the European Monetary System, and theoretically, through models of imperfect competition. Attention is then turned to the effects of misalignment, especially on employment and production, and to detailed estimates of the effects of changes in exchange rates on several industries, including the U.S. auto industry. In response to the contention that there is significant "hysteresis" in the adjustment of employment and production to changes in exchange rates, contributors also attempt to determine whether the effects of misalignment can be reversed once exchange rates return to earlier levels. Finally, the issue of how to avoid—or at least control—misalignment through macroeconomic policy is confronted.
Author: Congressional Research Congressional Research Service
Publisher: CreateSpace
ISBN: 9781507735916
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
Exchange rates affect the price of every country's imports and exports, as well as the value of every overseas investment. Following the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and ensuing economic recession, disagreements among countries over exchange rates became more widespread. At the heart of disagreements is whether or not countries are using exchange rate policies to undermine free markets and intentionally push down the value of their currency in order to gain a trade advantage at the expense of other countries. A weak currency makes exports cheaper to foreigners, which can lead to higher exports and job creation in the export sector. There can also be implications for other countries. In general, exporters and firms producing import-sensitive goods may find it harder to compete against countries with weak currencies. Consumers and businesses that rely on inputs from abroad may benefit when other countries have weak currencies, because imports may become cheaper. The United States has found itself on both sides of debates over exchange rates. On one hand, some Members of Congress and U.S. policy experts argue that U.S. exports and U.S. jobs have been adversely affected by the exchange rate policies adopted by China, Japan, and a number of other countries. On the other hand, some emerging markets, notably Brazil, argued during the global financial crisis that expansionary monetary policies in the United States and other developed countries caused the currencies of developed countries to depreciate, hurting the competitiveness of emerging markets. However, these concerns have diminished as the dollar has strengthened in recent months. Through the International Monetary Fund (IMF), countries have committed to avoid "currency manipulation." There are also provisions in U.S. law to address "currency manipulation" by other countries. In the context of recent disagreements, neither the IMF nor the U.S. Treasury Department has determined any country to be manipulating its exchange rate. There are differing views on why. Some argue that countries have not engaged in policies that violate international commitments on exchange rates or triggered provisions in U.S. law relating to currency manipulation. Others argue that currency manipulation has occurred, but that estimating a currency's "fundamental" value is complicated, and that the provisions do not effectively respond to exchange rate disputes.
Author: José Campa
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Dollar, American
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
"Using two decades of annual data, we explore the links between real exchange rates and employment, wages, and overtime activity in specific U.S. manufacturing industries. Across two-digit industry levels of aggregation, exchange rate movements do not have large effects on numbers of jobs or on hours worked. More substantial effects are picked up in industry wages, especially for industries characterized by low price-over-cost markup ratios, and in overtime wages and overtime employment. The industry-by-industry pattern of wage responsiveness is not strongly related to industry export orientation or changes in overall external orientation. Industries with low price-over-cost markups and those with a less skilled workforce exhibit relatively larger employment elasticities but lower wage elasticities"--Abstract
