Excess Volatility and Speculative Bubbles in the Canadian Dollar

Excess Volatility and Speculative Bubbles in the Canadian Dollar PDF Author: John David Murray
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780662249092
Category : Canada
Languages : en
Pages : 43

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Book Description
Greater intervention by the public sector is often proposed as a solution to the increased speculation and excessive price volatility thought to characterise today's competitive world financial system. This paper attempts to determine whether financial asset prices are in fact subject to excess volatility, using the Canadian dollar as a representative asset. The first section describes the behaviour of the Canadian dollar over 25 years beginning in June 1970, when Canada decided to return to a flexible rate system. Broad movements in the dollar as well as daily changes are examined and compared with those of other major currencies and financial assets. This is followed by a series of tests designed to check for persistent misalignments in the currency. A reduced-form model of real exchange rate determination is estimated using cointegration techniques, and the analysis is extended with a test for speculative bubbles based on a regime-switching specification in which the market is dominated at different times by speculative traders and other agents guided by more fundamental factors. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of the results obtained.

Excess Volatility and Speculative Bubbles in the Canadian Dollar

Excess Volatility and Speculative Bubbles in the Canadian Dollar PDF Author: John David Murray
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780662249092
Category : Canada
Languages : en
Pages : 43

Get Book

Book Description
Greater intervention by the public sector is often proposed as a solution to the increased speculation and excessive price volatility thought to characterise today's competitive world financial system. This paper attempts to determine whether financial asset prices are in fact subject to excess volatility, using the Canadian dollar as a representative asset. The first section describes the behaviour of the Canadian dollar over 25 years beginning in June 1970, when Canada decided to return to a flexible rate system. Broad movements in the dollar as well as daily changes are examined and compared with those of other major currencies and financial assets. This is followed by a series of tests designed to check for persistent misalignments in the currency. A reduced-form model of real exchange rate determination is estimated using cointegration techniques, and the analysis is extended with a test for speculative bubbles based on a regime-switching specification in which the market is dominated at different times by speculative traders and other agents guided by more fundamental factors. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of the results obtained.

The Stock Market: Bubbles, Volatility, and Chaos

The Stock Market: Bubbles, Volatility, and Chaos PDF Author: G.P. Dwyer
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401578818
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 206

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Book Description
Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. and R. W. Hafer The articles and commentaries included in this volume were presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' thirteenth annual economic policy conference, held on October 21-22, 1988. The conference focused on the behavior of asset market prices, a topic of increasing interest to both the popular press and to academic journals as the bull market of the 1980s continued. The events that transpired during October, 1987, both in the United States and abroad, provide an informative setting to test alter native theories. In assembling the papers presented during this conference, we asked the authors to explore the issue of asset pricing and financial market behavior from several vantages. Was the crash evidence of the bursting of a speculative bubble? Do we know enough about the work ings of asset markets to hazard an intelligent guess why they dropped so dramatically in such a brief time? Do we know enough to propose regulatory changes that will prevent any such occurrence in the future, or do we want to even if we can? We think that the articles and commentaries contained in this volume provide significant insight to inform and to answer such questions. The article by Behzad Diba surveys existing theoretical and empirical research on rational bubbles in asset prices.

The Dollarization Debate

The Dollarization Debate PDF Author: Dominick Salvatore
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0198035365
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 496

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Book Description
This book takes a global approach, with an emphasis on North and Latin America respectfully, by discussing one of today's most controversial topics in business; Dollarization. With the collapse of the former Soviet Union, and the formation of the Euro in Europe, many countries and debating whether or not a common currency is in their best interest. This intriguing volume brings together the leading participants in the current dollarization debates. Many advocate the notion of a common currency, while others feel that in doing so will create financial costs for all that take part, with the severity varying from country to country.

After the Euro

After the Euro PDF Author: Colin Crouch
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191522643
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 304

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Book Description
Now that the process of full implementation of European Monetary Union has begun, it is time to shift attention away from the process of introduction to the implications that the common currency will have for a wide range of institutions and policy areas. The wider political and social institutions of the European Union are not well developed there is an institutional deficit which parallels the more widely know democratic deficit. Monetary arrangements of nation states are imbedded in a range of political, cultural, economic and historical factors. Will mechanisms of these kinds eventually develop at the European level? Can national structures adapt to meet the challenge? The contributors to After the Euro tackle these questions and in doing so, take the debate beyond the economic and sovereignty questions which have so far dominated the debate.

Global Financial Crises

Global Financial Crises PDF Author: Joseph R. Bisignano
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461543673
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 434

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Book Description
Since 1990, major banking and current crises have occurred in many countries throughout the world - including Mexico and Latin America in 1994-95, East Asia in 1997-98, and Russia and Brazil in 1998 - with large costs both to the individual countries experiencing the crises and to other nations. As a result, considerable effort has been expended by economists and policymakers to identify the causes of these crises and to design programs with the aim both of preventing similar crises from occurring in the future, and of minimizing the costs when these do occur. These studies have cut across national boundaries, being undertaken by individual researchers and organizations in particular countries, as well as by international institutions. This book collects the papers and discussants' comments presented at a conference co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, and held in Chicago, in early October 1999. The purpose of the conference was to identify and discuss the lessons to be learned from these crises. Topics discussed included reviews of the crises in the individual countries and regions; analyses of the policy responses, both by the affected countries and by official international institutions; what has been learned from these crises; deposit insurance reform; the design of bank capital regulation; the role of bank supervision and regulation; and the future of official international financial institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The conference participants included a broad range of academic, industry, and regulatory experts from more than twenty-five countries. Because of the timeliness of the conference and the wide-ranging expertise of the participants, the papers in this book should be of significant interest both to students of financial crises and to domestic and international policymakers.

Document de Travail

Document de Travail PDF Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Canada
Languages : en
Pages : 48

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Book Description


Yield Curve Modelling at the Bank of Canada

Yield Curve Modelling at the Bank of Canada PDF Author: David Bolder
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780662276029
Category : Government securities
Languages : en
Pages : 70

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Book Description


The Canadian Journal of Economics

The Canadian Journal of Economics PDF Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Canada
Languages : en
Pages : 1490

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Book Description
A general interest journal in economics.

North American Linkages

North American Linkages PDF Author: University of Calgary
Publisher: Calgary : University of Calgary Press
ISBN:
Category : Canada
Languages : en
Pages : 720

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Book Description
Globalization continues to link the economies of all three North American partners into the world economy. At the same time, Canada's trade linkages with the U.S. and Mexico are growing rapidly and continue to evolve, creating new opportunities and some unique challenges. The overall policy challenge for Canada is how to better manage challenges and maximize opportunities presented by the growing North American linkages.Over thirty internationally renowned experts contribute to this in-depth volume on important policy issues of deepening North American linkages.

Dollarization in Canada

Dollarization in Canada PDF Author: John David Murray
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Dollar, American
Languages : en
Pages : 60

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Book Description
The possible potential benefits of Canada formally adopting the US dollar -- is this debate irrelevant since the Canadian economy is already highly 'dollarized"?, etc. --Abstract.