Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464818029
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 150
Book Description
Although global economic activity is recovering and output in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is expected to grow in 2021, containing COVID-19 remains a challenge in the region. Enterprise survey data for the emerging and developing countries in the region show that COVID-19 had a profound and heterogeneous impact on firms. Smaller, younger, and female-run businesses were hit harder and had greater difficulty recovering. But the crisis also played a cleansing role and economic activity in ECA appears to have been reallocated toward more productive firms during the crisis, particularly in countries with more competitive markets. Firms with high pre-crisis labor productivity experienced significantly smaller drops in sales and employment than firms with low pre-crisis labor productivity and were also more likely to adapt to the crisis by increasing online activity and remote work. Many governments in ECA implemented broad policy support schemes to address the initial economic fallout from the crisis. Overall, this government support was more likely to go to less productive and larger firms, regardless of the level of their pre-crisis innovation. As economies enter the economic recovery phase, it will be important for policy makers in all countries to phase out broad policy support measures as soon as appropriate and focus on fostering a competitive business environment, which is key to a strong recovery, resilience to future crises, and sustainable, long-term economic growth.
Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2021
Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464818029
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 150
Book Description
Although global economic activity is recovering and output in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is expected to grow in 2021, containing COVID-19 remains a challenge in the region. Enterprise survey data for the emerging and developing countries in the region show that COVID-19 had a profound and heterogeneous impact on firms. Smaller, younger, and female-run businesses were hit harder and had greater difficulty recovering. But the crisis also played a cleansing role and economic activity in ECA appears to have been reallocated toward more productive firms during the crisis, particularly in countries with more competitive markets. Firms with high pre-crisis labor productivity experienced significantly smaller drops in sales and employment than firms with low pre-crisis labor productivity and were also more likely to adapt to the crisis by increasing online activity and remote work. Many governments in ECA implemented broad policy support schemes to address the initial economic fallout from the crisis. Overall, this government support was more likely to go to less productive and larger firms, regardless of the level of their pre-crisis innovation. As economies enter the economic recovery phase, it will be important for policy makers in all countries to phase out broad policy support measures as soon as appropriate and focus on fostering a competitive business environment, which is key to a strong recovery, resilience to future crises, and sustainable, long-term economic growth.
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464818029
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 150
Book Description
Although global economic activity is recovering and output in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is expected to grow in 2021, containing COVID-19 remains a challenge in the region. Enterprise survey data for the emerging and developing countries in the region show that COVID-19 had a profound and heterogeneous impact on firms. Smaller, younger, and female-run businesses were hit harder and had greater difficulty recovering. But the crisis also played a cleansing role and economic activity in ECA appears to have been reallocated toward more productive firms during the crisis, particularly in countries with more competitive markets. Firms with high pre-crisis labor productivity experienced significantly smaller drops in sales and employment than firms with low pre-crisis labor productivity and were also more likely to adapt to the crisis by increasing online activity and remote work. Many governments in ECA implemented broad policy support schemes to address the initial economic fallout from the crisis. Overall, this government support was more likely to go to less productive and larger firms, regardless of the level of their pre-crisis innovation. As economies enter the economic recovery phase, it will be important for policy makers in all countries to phase out broad policy support measures as soon as appropriate and focus on fostering a competitive business environment, which is key to a strong recovery, resilience to future crises, and sustainable, long-term economic growth.
Global Economic Prospects, June 2021
Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464816662
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 339
Book Description
The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464816662
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 339
Book Description
The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
Impact Evaluation in Practice, Second Edition
Author: Paul J. Gertler
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464807809
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 444
Book Description
The second edition of the Impact Evaluation in Practice handbook is a comprehensive and accessible introduction to impact evaluation for policy makers and development practitioners. First published in 2011, it has been used widely across the development and academic communities. The book incorporates real-world examples to present practical guidelines for designing and implementing impact evaluations. Readers will gain an understanding of impact evaluations and the best ways to use them to design evidence-based policies and programs. The updated version covers the newest techniques for evaluating programs and includes state-of-the-art implementation advice, as well as an expanded set of examples and case studies that draw on recent development challenges. It also includes new material on research ethics and partnerships to conduct impact evaluation. The handbook is divided into four sections: Part One discusses what to evaluate and why; Part Two presents the main impact evaluation methods; Part Three addresses how to manage impact evaluations; Part Four reviews impact evaluation sampling and data collection. Case studies illustrate different applications of impact evaluations. The book links to complementary instructional material available online, including an applied case as well as questions and answers. The updated second edition will be a valuable resource for the international development community, universities, and policy makers looking to build better evidence around what works in development.
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464807809
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 444
Book Description
The second edition of the Impact Evaluation in Practice handbook is a comprehensive and accessible introduction to impact evaluation for policy makers and development practitioners. First published in 2011, it has been used widely across the development and academic communities. The book incorporates real-world examples to present practical guidelines for designing and implementing impact evaluations. Readers will gain an understanding of impact evaluations and the best ways to use them to design evidence-based policies and programs. The updated version covers the newest techniques for evaluating programs and includes state-of-the-art implementation advice, as well as an expanded set of examples and case studies that draw on recent development challenges. It also includes new material on research ethics and partnerships to conduct impact evaluation. The handbook is divided into four sections: Part One discusses what to evaluate and why; Part Two presents the main impact evaluation methods; Part Three addresses how to manage impact evaluations; Part Four reviews impact evaluation sampling and data collection. Case studies illustrate different applications of impact evaluations. The book links to complementary instructional material available online, including an applied case as well as questions and answers. The updated second edition will be a valuable resource for the international development community, universities, and policy makers looking to build better evidence around what works in development.
The Global Findex Database 2017
Author: Asli Demirguc-Kunt
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464812683
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 228
Book Description
In 2011 the World Bank—with funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation—launched the Global Findex database, the world's most comprehensive data set on how adults save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk. Drawing on survey data collected in collaboration with Gallup, Inc., the Global Findex database covers more than 140 economies around the world. The initial survey round was followed by a second one in 2014 and by a third in 2017. Compiled using nationally representative surveys of more than 150,000 adults age 15 and above in over 140 economies, The Global Findex Database 2017: Measuring Financial Inclusion and the Fintech Revolution includes updated indicators on access to and use of formal and informal financial services. It has additional data on the use of financial technology (or fintech), including the use of mobile phones and the Internet to conduct financial transactions. The data reveal opportunities to expand access to financial services among people who do not have an account—the unbanked—as well as to promote greater use of digital financial services among those who do have an account. The Global Findex database has become a mainstay of global efforts to promote financial inclusion. In addition to being widely cited by scholars and development practitioners, Global Findex data are used to track progress toward the World Bank goal of Universal Financial Access by 2020 and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The database, the full text of the report, and the underlying country-level data for all figures—along with the questionnaire, the survey methodology, and other relevant materials—are available at www.worldbank.org/globalfindex.
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464812683
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 228
Book Description
In 2011 the World Bank—with funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation—launched the Global Findex database, the world's most comprehensive data set on how adults save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk. Drawing on survey data collected in collaboration with Gallup, Inc., the Global Findex database covers more than 140 economies around the world. The initial survey round was followed by a second one in 2014 and by a third in 2017. Compiled using nationally representative surveys of more than 150,000 adults age 15 and above in over 140 economies, The Global Findex Database 2017: Measuring Financial Inclusion and the Fintech Revolution includes updated indicators on access to and use of formal and informal financial services. It has additional data on the use of financial technology (or fintech), including the use of mobile phones and the Internet to conduct financial transactions. The data reveal opportunities to expand access to financial services among people who do not have an account—the unbanked—as well as to promote greater use of digital financial services among those who do have an account. The Global Findex database has become a mainstay of global efforts to promote financial inclusion. In addition to being widely cited by scholars and development practitioners, Global Findex data are used to track progress toward the World Bank goal of Universal Financial Access by 2020 and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The database, the full text of the report, and the underlying country-level data for all figures—along with the questionnaire, the survey methodology, and other relevant materials—are available at www.worldbank.org/globalfindex.
Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Spring 2021
Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464816980
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 172
Book Description
Governments play a critical role in the economies of Europe and Central Asia, where government expenditures are close to 40 percent of gross domestic product and the public sector accounts for nearly 27 percent of total employment, which is almost twice the global average. The public sector often attracts some of the best educated workers in the region. And support for a larger public sector is increasing due to aging populations and their growing health care and long-term care needs, rising inequality and greater support for redistribution, and increasing expenditures as governments address the challenges posed by the COVID-19 crisis. The significant role that government plays underscores the importance of the quality of governance in determining productivity and growth and effectively responding to the region’s economic and social challenges. Digital technology and the data revolution offer the potential to increase efficiency, transparency, responsiveness, and citizen trust, directly impacting the quality of government. Across the world, the quality of government is increasingly informed by the extent to which governments harness digital tools and GovTech to optimize management, service delivery, and overall state capacity. Technology and data are also key for fostering collaboration between governments and civil society to improve public sector efficiency and service delivery. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the costs associated with delaying digitalization and GovTech implementation and the opportunities that lie in public sector modernization.
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464816980
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 172
Book Description
Governments play a critical role in the economies of Europe and Central Asia, where government expenditures are close to 40 percent of gross domestic product and the public sector accounts for nearly 27 percent of total employment, which is almost twice the global average. The public sector often attracts some of the best educated workers in the region. And support for a larger public sector is increasing due to aging populations and their growing health care and long-term care needs, rising inequality and greater support for redistribution, and increasing expenditures as governments address the challenges posed by the COVID-19 crisis. The significant role that government plays underscores the importance of the quality of governance in determining productivity and growth and effectively responding to the region’s economic and social challenges. Digital technology and the data revolution offer the potential to increase efficiency, transparency, responsiveness, and citizen trust, directly impacting the quality of government. Across the world, the quality of government is increasingly informed by the extent to which governments harness digital tools and GovTech to optimize management, service delivery, and overall state capacity. Technology and data are also key for fostering collaboration between governments and civil society to improve public sector efficiency and service delivery. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the costs associated with delaying digitalization and GovTech implementation and the opportunities that lie in public sector modernization.
Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2022
Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464819289
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 178
Book Description
Globalization, demographic trends, the green transition, and technological innovations are transforming labor markets in Europe and Central Asia, altering their institutional and contractual arrangements, and creating disparities and vulnerabilities in the labor force. Systemic risks—economic, health, or climate-related—are also playing an increased role in driving poverty and vulnerability. Social protection systems in Europe and Central Asia will need to be reformed to address these challenges and provide adequate protection to workers and families. Countries in the region responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by implementing social protection packages with a substantial contribution of job protection policies. Analysis of the impact of these policies suggests that while job protection policies may have preserved employment in the short run, this may have come at the expense of efficiency and growth. In the long run, income protection policies may be better at addressing the needs of vulnerable groups as labor markets continue evolving. A policy package that combines a guaranteed minimum income with labor market policies that facilitate job transitions can best help countries address long-term challenges.
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464819289
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 178
Book Description
Globalization, demographic trends, the green transition, and technological innovations are transforming labor markets in Europe and Central Asia, altering their institutional and contractual arrangements, and creating disparities and vulnerabilities in the labor force. Systemic risks—economic, health, or climate-related—are also playing an increased role in driving poverty and vulnerability. Social protection systems in Europe and Central Asia will need to be reformed to address these challenges and provide adequate protection to workers and families. Countries in the region responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by implementing social protection packages with a substantial contribution of job protection policies. Analysis of the impact of these policies suggests that while job protection policies may have preserved employment in the short run, this may have come at the expense of efficiency and growth. In the long run, income protection policies may be better at addressing the needs of vulnerable groups as labor markets continue evolving. A policy package that combines a guaranteed minimum income with labor market policies that facilitate job transitions can best help countries address long-term challenges.
Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2020
Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464816433
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 180
Book Description
The COVID-19 pandemic has hit human capital directly in Europe and Central Asia, adversely affecting both education and health. School closures may lead to learning losses equivalent to a third to a full year of schooling, and they are likely to exacerbate inequalities, by disproportionately affecting students from disadvantaged backgrounds. The disease has already killed thousands of people, and some patients who survive will suffer long-term damage to their health. Recovery from the pandemic will thus require strong investment in education and health. This update examines human capital outcomes in the region and the ways in which the pandemic is likely to affect them. A focus on the quality of tertiary education and health risk factors of obesity, smoking, and heavy drinking highlights the challenges that are particularly important for the region. Post-COVID 19 policy initiatives to improve education and health will need to recognize the challenges posed by increased reliance on remote learning and the importance of being prepared for future pandemics, given the vulnerability of the region’s aging societies and the large number of people with underlying health risks.
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464816433
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 180
Book Description
The COVID-19 pandemic has hit human capital directly in Europe and Central Asia, adversely affecting both education and health. School closures may lead to learning losses equivalent to a third to a full year of schooling, and they are likely to exacerbate inequalities, by disproportionately affecting students from disadvantaged backgrounds. The disease has already killed thousands of people, and some patients who survive will suffer long-term damage to their health. Recovery from the pandemic will thus require strong investment in education and health. This update examines human capital outcomes in the region and the ways in which the pandemic is likely to affect them. A focus on the quality of tertiary education and health risk factors of obesity, smoking, and heavy drinking highlights the challenges that are particularly important for the region. Post-COVID 19 policy initiatives to improve education and health will need to recognize the challenges posed by increased reliance on remote learning and the importance of being prepared for future pandemics, given the vulnerability of the region’s aging societies and the large number of people with underlying health risks.
Global Productivity
Author: Alistair Dieppe
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464816093
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 552
Book Description
The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464816093
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 552
Book Description
The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD
Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2019
Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464815062
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 136
Book Description
The share of immigrants in Western and Eastern Europe has increased rapidly over the past four decades. Today, one of every three immigrants in the world goes to Europe. Furthermore, although globally only one-third of migration takes place within regions, intraregional migration is especially high within Europe and Central Asia, with 80 percent of the region's emigrants choosing to move to other countries in the region. In high-income destination countries, migrants are often blamed for high unemployment and declining social services. There are also widespread concerns about brain drain in the migrant sending countries of Eastern Europe, the Western Balkans, and Central Asia. This update focuses on the design of policies on labor mobility and presents the trends, determinants, and impacts of low- and high-skilled labor.
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464815062
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 136
Book Description
The share of immigrants in Western and Eastern Europe has increased rapidly over the past four decades. Today, one of every three immigrants in the world goes to Europe. Furthermore, although globally only one-third of migration takes place within regions, intraregional migration is especially high within Europe and Central Asia, with 80 percent of the region's emigrants choosing to move to other countries in the region. In high-income destination countries, migrants are often blamed for high unemployment and declining social services. There are also widespread concerns about brain drain in the migrant sending countries of Eastern Europe, the Western Balkans, and Central Asia. This update focuses on the design of policies on labor mobility and presents the trends, determinants, and impacts of low- and high-skilled labor.
Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Spring 2022
Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464818665
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 118
Book Description
In February 2022, the world was shocked by the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine. The war is having a devastating impact on human life and causing economic destruction in both countries, and will lead to significant economic losses in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region and the rest of the world. It comes at a particularly vulnerable time for ECA as its economic recovery was expected to be held back by scarring from the pandemic and lingering structural weaknesses. The economic impact of the conflict has reverberated through multiple channels, including commodity and financial markets, trade and migration links, and the damaging impact on confidence. Moreover, the war has added to mounting concerns about a sharp global slowdown, surging inflation and debt, and a spike in poverty levels. Neighboring ECA countries are likely to suffer considerable economic damage because of their strong trade, financial, and migration links with Russia and Ukraine. The war is also causing a destabilizing wave of refugees, financial stresses in vulnerable countries, runaway inflation expectations, and food insecurity. A protracted conflict could further heighten policy uncertainty and fragment critical trade and investment networks.
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464818665
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 118
Book Description
In February 2022, the world was shocked by the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine. The war is having a devastating impact on human life and causing economic destruction in both countries, and will lead to significant economic losses in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region and the rest of the world. It comes at a particularly vulnerable time for ECA as its economic recovery was expected to be held back by scarring from the pandemic and lingering structural weaknesses. The economic impact of the conflict has reverberated through multiple channels, including commodity and financial markets, trade and migration links, and the damaging impact on confidence. Moreover, the war has added to mounting concerns about a sharp global slowdown, surging inflation and debt, and a spike in poverty levels. Neighboring ECA countries are likely to suffer considerable economic damage because of their strong trade, financial, and migration links with Russia and Ukraine. The war is also causing a destabilizing wave of refugees, financial stresses in vulnerable countries, runaway inflation expectations, and food insecurity. A protracted conflict could further heighten policy uncertainty and fragment critical trade and investment networks.