Author: Konstantin Platonov
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 129
Book Description
My dissertation contributes to the macroeconomics of self-fulfilling prophecies. It demonstrates the importance of shocks to beliefs in accounting for aggregate fluctuations. The dissertation consists of three chapters. The first chapter is a paper joint with Roger E.A. Farmer. We integrate Keynesian economics with general equilibrium theory in a new way. We develop a simple graphical apparatus, the IS-LM-NAC framework, that can be used by policy makers to understand how policy affects the economy. A new element, the No-Arbitrage-Condition (NAC) curve, connects the interest rate to current and expected future values of the stock market and it explains how 'animal spirits' influence economic activity. Our framework provides a rich new approach to policy analysis that explains the short-run and long-run effects of policy. The second chapter studies implications of self-fulfilling beliefs in open economies. Uncovered interest parity states that the carry trade should deliver zero profit, on average. The data robustly reject this hypothesis. In a large sample of countries, high interest rate currencies earn excess returns at short horizons and negative excess returns at longer horizons. I rationalize this observation in a two-country overlapping generations model with complete markets that features multiple dynamic equilibria. Because newborns cannot make decisions about consumption and savings before they are born, there is a set of self-fulfilling beliefs of the currently alive generations about the decisions of the future newborns. I utilize the multiplicity of dynamic equilibria by imposing a structure on the formation of beliefs. Beliefs are self-fulfilling, and shocks to these beliefs generate a large and volatile risk premium that is correlated with the interest rate differential. Changes in uncertainty about beliefs cause a reversal of expected excess returns associated with the current interest differential, similar to the reversal found in the data. I provide empirical evidence in favor of my mechanism and show that persistence of past expectations can account for most of the observed deviation from uncovered interest parity. The third chapter extends the methodology developed in the first chapter to the open economy framework. I build a model of the eurozone crisis. I study a two-country model in which agents form self-fulfilling beliefs about asset prices. Using the labor market search and matching frictions and abandoning Nash bar- gaining over wage, I create multiple equilibria on the labor market where any unemployment rate can be sustained as a steady state. Self-fulfilling beliefs about the future value of assets select the equilibrium. I show that sudden downward revisions of beliefs ('animal spirits') cause stagnation in real economic activity, international financial contagion, and, in the absence of recovery in confidence, permanently high rates of unemployment. High unemployment is viewed as a new steady state, not a temporary deviation from the natural rate of unemployment. Policy aimed at recovering the eurozone needs to trigger optimistic beliefs about the value of assets.
Essays on Keynesian Models of Closed and Open Economies
Author: Konstantin Platonov
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 129
Book Description
My dissertation contributes to the macroeconomics of self-fulfilling prophecies. It demonstrates the importance of shocks to beliefs in accounting for aggregate fluctuations. The dissertation consists of three chapters. The first chapter is a paper joint with Roger E.A. Farmer. We integrate Keynesian economics with general equilibrium theory in a new way. We develop a simple graphical apparatus, the IS-LM-NAC framework, that can be used by policy makers to understand how policy affects the economy. A new element, the No-Arbitrage-Condition (NAC) curve, connects the interest rate to current and expected future values of the stock market and it explains how 'animal spirits' influence economic activity. Our framework provides a rich new approach to policy analysis that explains the short-run and long-run effects of policy. The second chapter studies implications of self-fulfilling beliefs in open economies. Uncovered interest parity states that the carry trade should deliver zero profit, on average. The data robustly reject this hypothesis. In a large sample of countries, high interest rate currencies earn excess returns at short horizons and negative excess returns at longer horizons. I rationalize this observation in a two-country overlapping generations model with complete markets that features multiple dynamic equilibria. Because newborns cannot make decisions about consumption and savings before they are born, there is a set of self-fulfilling beliefs of the currently alive generations about the decisions of the future newborns. I utilize the multiplicity of dynamic equilibria by imposing a structure on the formation of beliefs. Beliefs are self-fulfilling, and shocks to these beliefs generate a large and volatile risk premium that is correlated with the interest rate differential. Changes in uncertainty about beliefs cause a reversal of expected excess returns associated with the current interest differential, similar to the reversal found in the data. I provide empirical evidence in favor of my mechanism and show that persistence of past expectations can account for most of the observed deviation from uncovered interest parity. The third chapter extends the methodology developed in the first chapter to the open economy framework. I build a model of the eurozone crisis. I study a two-country model in which agents form self-fulfilling beliefs about asset prices. Using the labor market search and matching frictions and abandoning Nash bar- gaining over wage, I create multiple equilibria on the labor market where any unemployment rate can be sustained as a steady state. Self-fulfilling beliefs about the future value of assets select the equilibrium. I show that sudden downward revisions of beliefs ('animal spirits') cause stagnation in real economic activity, international financial contagion, and, in the absence of recovery in confidence, permanently high rates of unemployment. High unemployment is viewed as a new steady state, not a temporary deviation from the natural rate of unemployment. Policy aimed at recovering the eurozone needs to trigger optimistic beliefs about the value of assets.
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 129
Book Description
My dissertation contributes to the macroeconomics of self-fulfilling prophecies. It demonstrates the importance of shocks to beliefs in accounting for aggregate fluctuations. The dissertation consists of three chapters. The first chapter is a paper joint with Roger E.A. Farmer. We integrate Keynesian economics with general equilibrium theory in a new way. We develop a simple graphical apparatus, the IS-LM-NAC framework, that can be used by policy makers to understand how policy affects the economy. A new element, the No-Arbitrage-Condition (NAC) curve, connects the interest rate to current and expected future values of the stock market and it explains how 'animal spirits' influence economic activity. Our framework provides a rich new approach to policy analysis that explains the short-run and long-run effects of policy. The second chapter studies implications of self-fulfilling beliefs in open economies. Uncovered interest parity states that the carry trade should deliver zero profit, on average. The data robustly reject this hypothesis. In a large sample of countries, high interest rate currencies earn excess returns at short horizons and negative excess returns at longer horizons. I rationalize this observation in a two-country overlapping generations model with complete markets that features multiple dynamic equilibria. Because newborns cannot make decisions about consumption and savings before they are born, there is a set of self-fulfilling beliefs of the currently alive generations about the decisions of the future newborns. I utilize the multiplicity of dynamic equilibria by imposing a structure on the formation of beliefs. Beliefs are self-fulfilling, and shocks to these beliefs generate a large and volatile risk premium that is correlated with the interest rate differential. Changes in uncertainty about beliefs cause a reversal of expected excess returns associated with the current interest differential, similar to the reversal found in the data. I provide empirical evidence in favor of my mechanism and show that persistence of past expectations can account for most of the observed deviation from uncovered interest parity. The third chapter extends the methodology developed in the first chapter to the open economy framework. I build a model of the eurozone crisis. I study a two-country model in which agents form self-fulfilling beliefs about asset prices. Using the labor market search and matching frictions and abandoning Nash bar- gaining over wage, I create multiple equilibria on the labor market where any unemployment rate can be sustained as a steady state. Self-fulfilling beliefs about the future value of assets select the equilibrium. I show that sudden downward revisions of beliefs ('animal spirits') cause stagnation in real economic activity, international financial contagion, and, in the absence of recovery in confidence, permanently high rates of unemployment. High unemployment is viewed as a new steady state, not a temporary deviation from the natural rate of unemployment. Policy aimed at recovering the eurozone needs to trigger optimistic beliefs about the value of assets.
Essays In The Fundamental Theory Of Monetary Economics And Macroeconomics
Author: John Smithin
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company
ISBN: 9814525294
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 341
Book Description
This book provides a comprehensive overview, in the form of eight long essays, of the evolution of monetary theory over the three-quarters of century, from the time of Keynes to the present day. The essays are originally based on lecture notes from a graduate course on Advanced Monetary Economics offered at York University, Toronto, written in the style of academic papers. The essays are mathematical in method — but also take a historical perspective, tracing the evolution of monetary thought through the Keynesian model, the monetarist model, new classical model, etc, up to and including the neo-Wickesellian models of the early 21st century. The book will be an essential resource for both graduate and advanced undergraduate students in economics, as well as for individual researchers seeking basic information on the theoretical background of contemporary debates.
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company
ISBN: 9814525294
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 341
Book Description
This book provides a comprehensive overview, in the form of eight long essays, of the evolution of monetary theory over the three-quarters of century, from the time of Keynes to the present day. The essays are originally based on lecture notes from a graduate course on Advanced Monetary Economics offered at York University, Toronto, written in the style of academic papers. The essays are mathematical in method — but also take a historical perspective, tracing the evolution of monetary thought through the Keynesian model, the monetarist model, new classical model, etc, up to and including the neo-Wickesellian models of the early 21st century. The book will be an essential resource for both graduate and advanced undergraduate students in economics, as well as for individual researchers seeking basic information on the theoretical background of contemporary debates.
The Keynesian Recovery and Other Essays
Author: Peter Howitt
Publisher: University of Michigan Press
ISBN: 9780472102105
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 272
Book Description
This volume brings together Howitt's key contributions to the development of macroeconomic theory
Publisher: University of Michigan Press
ISBN: 9780472102105
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 272
Book Description
This volume brings together Howitt's key contributions to the development of macroeconomic theory
Keynes, Money, and the Open Economy
Author: Philip Arestis
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 240
Book Description
A collection of 11 original essays on such topics as Keynes' philosophy and the post-Keynesian monetary theory, Paul Davidson's rediscovery of Keyne's finance motive and the liquidity preference versus loanable funds debate, money as a time machine in the new financial world, endogenous money and the state of trade, and international trade and the real world. Also includes an unannotated primary bibliography for American pioneer in post-Keynesian economics Davidson (b. 1930). Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 240
Book Description
A collection of 11 original essays on such topics as Keynes' philosophy and the post-Keynesian monetary theory, Paul Davidson's rediscovery of Keyne's finance motive and the liquidity preference versus loanable funds debate, money as a time machine in the new financial world, endogenous money and the state of trade, and international trade and the real world. Also includes an unannotated primary bibliography for American pioneer in post-Keynesian economics Davidson (b. 1930). Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
Essays on Small Open Economy New Keynesian DSGE Models
Author: Phuong Nguyen Van
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
Toward a New Economics
Author: Alfred S. Eichner
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 266
Book Description
Presents the body of Post-Keynesian theory as an integrated whole, demonstrating that it is just as comprehensive and coherent as the neoclassical synthesis.
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 266
Book Description
Presents the body of Post-Keynesian theory as an integrated whole, demonstrating that it is just as comprehensive and coherent as the neoclassical synthesis.
Keynesian Economics
Author: Graham Keith Shaw
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Biography & Autobiography
Languages : en
Pages : 184
Book Description
Keynesian Economics is a well written book. The various schools of thought in macroeconomics are exposed in a very simple and comprehensive way, and the reader gets a good understanding of the state of macroeconomic theory and policy in the last two decades. O.F. Hamouda, The Economic Journal
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Biography & Autobiography
Languages : en
Pages : 184
Book Description
Keynesian Economics is a well written book. The various schools of thought in macroeconomics are exposed in a very simple and comprehensive way, and the reader gets a good understanding of the state of macroeconomic theory and policy in the last two decades. O.F. Hamouda, The Economic Journal
Post-Keynesian Essays from Down Under Volume I: Essays on Keynes, Harrod and Kalecki
Author: G. Harcourt
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1137475382
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 375
Book Description
Joseph Halevi, Geoff Harcourt, Peter Kriesler and J. W. Nevile bring together a collection of their most influential papers on post-Keynesian thought. Their work stresses the importance of the underlying institutional framework, of the economy as a historical process and, therefore, of path determinacy. In addition, their essays suggest the ultimate goal of economics is as a tool to inform policy and make the world a better place, with better being defined by an overriding concern with social justice. Volume I analyses the contributions of Keynes, Harrod and Kalecki.
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1137475382
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 375
Book Description
Joseph Halevi, Geoff Harcourt, Peter Kriesler and J. W. Nevile bring together a collection of their most influential papers on post-Keynesian thought. Their work stresses the importance of the underlying institutional framework, of the economy as a historical process and, therefore, of path determinacy. In addition, their essays suggest the ultimate goal of economics is as a tool to inform policy and make the world a better place, with better being defined by an overriding concern with social justice. Volume I analyses the contributions of Keynes, Harrod and Kalecki.
An Alternative Macroeconomic Theory: The Kaleckian Model and Post-Keynesian Economics
Author: John E. King
Publisher: Springer
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 252
Book Description
This volume presents an alternative macroeconomic theory based on the contributions of Michal Kalecki. Kalecki's importance as a pioneer of post-Keynesian theory has long been recognized by such prominent economists as Joan Robinson and Lawrence Klein. While in the U.S. post-Keynesian economics has drawn more heavily on indigenous sources (i.e. Weintraub, Davidson and Minsky) and on Keynes himself, European, Indian and Australian post-Keynesians have always regarded Kalecki as their principal source and inspiration. The book covers topics on methodology, price theory, trade cycles and economic growth, monetary economics, socialism, and concludes with a complete bibliography on Kalecki.
Publisher: Springer
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 252
Book Description
This volume presents an alternative macroeconomic theory based on the contributions of Michal Kalecki. Kalecki's importance as a pioneer of post-Keynesian theory has long been recognized by such prominent economists as Joan Robinson and Lawrence Klein. While in the U.S. post-Keynesian economics has drawn more heavily on indigenous sources (i.e. Weintraub, Davidson and Minsky) and on Keynes himself, European, Indian and Australian post-Keynesians have always regarded Kalecki as their principal source and inspiration. The book covers topics on methodology, price theory, trade cycles and economic growth, monetary economics, socialism, and concludes with a complete bibliography on Kalecki.
Full Employment and Growth
Author: James Tobin
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 336
Book Description
A collection of twenty-six essays written by Yale economics professor Tobin, "the Keynesian who won't quit" (and proud of it). These essays defend Keynesian policies against extremes of classical economics, as well as respond to recent economic developments in the areas of "globalization," the transition to capitalism in former communist economies, and the rise in poverty and inequality in the US. The volume is divided five parts dealing with macroeconomic, monetary, fiscal, international economic relations, and social policies. Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 336
Book Description
A collection of twenty-six essays written by Yale economics professor Tobin, "the Keynesian who won't quit" (and proud of it). These essays defend Keynesian policies against extremes of classical economics, as well as respond to recent economic developments in the areas of "globalization," the transition to capitalism in former communist economies, and the rise in poverty and inequality in the US. The volume is divided five parts dealing with macroeconomic, monetary, fiscal, international economic relations, and social policies. Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR