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Author:
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ISBN: 9781339401652
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 232
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The Great Recession of 2008-09 in the U.S. was characterized by high and persistent unemployment and lack of bank lending due to liquidity issues. The recession was preceded by a housing crisis that quickly spread to the banking and broader financial sectors. We attempt to account for the depth and persistence of unemployment by considering the relationship between credit and firm hiring explicitly. To do so, we introduce search and matching frictions to characterize the dynamics of credit markets in a series of macroeconomic models that present different types of distortions in the labor market as well as in the interbank market. We obtain a novel propagation and amplification mechanism of a financial crisis associated to an inefficiency wedge that affects the aggregate production function of the economy and depends directly on credit conditions.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781339401652
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 232
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Book Description
The Great Recession of 2008-09 in the U.S. was characterized by high and persistent unemployment and lack of bank lending due to liquidity issues. The recession was preceded by a housing crisis that quickly spread to the banking and broader financial sectors. We attempt to account for the depth and persistence of unemployment by considering the relationship between credit and firm hiring explicitly. To do so, we introduce search and matching frictions to characterize the dynamics of credit markets in a series of macroeconomic models that present different types of distortions in the labor market as well as in the interbank market. We obtain a novel propagation and amplification mechanism of a financial crisis associated to an inefficiency wedge that affects the aggregate production function of the economy and depends directly on credit conditions.
Author: Jeremy Rastouil
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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During the Great Recession, the interactions between housing, labor and entry highlight the existence of narrow propagation channels between these markets. The aim of this thesis is to shed a light on labor market interactions with firm entry and financial business cycles, by building on the recent theoretical and empirical of DSGE models. In the first chapter, we have found evidence of the key role of the net entry as an amplifying mechanism for employment dynamics. Introducing search and matching frictions, we have studied from a new perspective the cyclicality of the mark-up compared to previous researches that use Walrasian labor market. We found a less countercyclical markup due to the acyclical aspect of the marginal cost in the DMP framework and a reduced role according to firm's entry in the cyclicality of the markup. In the second chapter, we have linked the borrowing capacity of households to their employment situation on the labor market. With this new microfoundation of the collateral constraint, new matches on the labor market translate into more mortgages, while separation induces an exclusion from financial markets for jobseekers. As a result, the LTV becomes endogenous by responding procyclically to employment fluctuations. We have shown that this device is empirically relevant and solves the anomalies of the standard collateral constraint. In the last chapter, we extend the analysis developed in the previous one by integrating collateral constrained firms in order to have a more complete financial business cycle. The first result is that an entrepreneur collateral constraint integrating capital, real commercial estate and wage bill in advance is empirically relevant compared to the collateral literature associated to the labor market which does not consider these three assets. The second finding is the role of the housing price and credit squeezes in the rise of the unemployment rate during the Great Recession. The last two chapters have important implications for economic policy. A structural deregulation reform in the labor market induces a significant rise in the debt level for households and housing price, combined with a substantial rise of firm debt. Our approach allows us to reveal that a macroprudential policy aiming to tighten the LTV ratio for household borrowers has positive effects in the long run for output and employment, while tightening LTV ratios for entrepreneurs leads to the opposite effect.
Author: Christine N. Tewfik
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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My dissertation is comprised of three papers on the causes and consequences of the U.S. Great Recession. The emphasis is on the role that financial frictions play in magnifying financial shocks, as well as in informing the effectiveness of potential policies. Chapter 1, "Financial Frictions, Investment Delay and Asset Market Interventions," co-authored with Shouyong Shi, studies the role of investment delay in propagating different types of financial shocks, and how this role impacts the effectiveness of asset market interventions. The topic is motivated by the observation that, during the Great Recession, governments conducted large-scale asset market interventions. The aim was to increase the level of liquidity in the asset market and make it easier for firms to obtain financing. However, firms were observed to have delayed investment by hoarding liquid funds, part of which were obtained through the interventions. We construct a dynamic macro model to incorporate financial frictions and investment delay. Investment is undertaken by entrepreneurs who face liquidity frictions in the equity market and a collateral constraint in the debt market. After calibrating the model to the U.S. data, we quantitatively examine how aggregate activity is affected by two types of financial shocks: (i) a shock to equity liquidity, and (ii) a shock to entrepreneurs' borrowing capacity. We then analyze the effectiveness of government interventions in the asset market after such financial shocks. In particular, we compare the effects of government purchases of private equity and of private debt in the open market. In addition, we examine how these effects of government interventions depend on the option to delay investment. In Chapter 2, "Housing Liquidity and Unemployment: The Role of Firm Financial Frictions," I build upon the role that firms' ability to obtain funding plays in the severity of the Great Recession. I focus specifically on how the housing crisis reduced the ability of firms to obtain funding, and the consequences for unemployment. An important feature I focus on is the role of housing liquidity, or how easy it is to sell or buy a house. I analyze how an initial fall in housing market liquidity, linked to rising foreclosure costs for banks, affects labor market outcomes, which can have further feedback effects. I focus on the role that firm financial frictions play in these feedback effects. To this end, I construct a dynamic macro model that incorporates frictional housing and labor markets, as well as firm financial frictions. Mortgages are obtained from banks that incur foreclosure costs in the event of default. Foreclosure costs also affect the ease with which firms can borrow, and this influences their hiring decisions. I calibrate the model to U.S. data, and find that a rise in foreclosure costs that generates a 10% fall in the firm loan-to-output ratio results in a 3 percentage point rise in the unemployment rate. The rise in unemployment makes it more difficult for indebted owners to avoid defaulting on their mortgage. This rise in default, on the order of 20 percent, creates further slack in the housing market by both increasing the number of houses on the market and reducing the amount of buyers. Consequently, there are large drops in housing prices and in the size of mortgage loans. Notably, when firm financial frictions are absent, I observe a counter-factual fall in the unemployment rate, which mitigates the effects on the housing market, and even results in a fall in the mortgage default rate. The results highlight the importance of the impact of the housing market crisis on a firm's willingness to hire, and how firms' limited access to credit magnifies the initial housing shock. In Chapter 3, "Housing Market Distress and Unemployment: A Dynamic Analysis," I add to the contributions of my second paper, and extend the analysis to determine the dynamic effects of the housing crisis on unemployment. In Chapter 2, I focused on comparing stationary equilibria when there is a rise in the foreclosure costs associated with mortgage default. However, a full analysis must also take into account the dynamic effects of the shock. In order to do the dynamic analysis, I modify the model in my job market paper to satisfy the conditions of block recursivity. I do this by incorporating Hedlund's (2016) technique of introducing real estate agents in the housing market that match separately with buyers and sellers. Doing this makes the model's endogenous variables independent of the distribution of households and firms. Rather, the impact of the distribution is summarized by the shadow value of housing. This greatly improves the tractability of the model, and allows me to compute the dynamic response to a fall in a bank's ability to sell a foreclosed house, thus raising the costs of mortgage default. I find that the results are largely dependent on the size and persistence of the shock, as well as the level of firm financial frictions that are present. When firm financial frictions are high, as represented by the presence of an interest rate premium charged to firms, and the initial shock is large, the shock is transferred to firms via an endogenous rise in the cost of renting capital. Firms scale back on production and reduce employment. The rise in unemployment increases the debt burden for households with large mortgages. They can try and sell, but find it difficult to do so because they must sell at a high price to be able to pay off their debt. If they fail, they are forced to default, thus further raising the mortgage costs of banks, further reducing resources to firms, and propagating the initial shock. However, the extent of the propagation is limited; once the shock wears off, the economy recovers to its pre-crisis levels within two quarters. I discuss the reasons why, and what elements would be needed for greater persistence.
Author: Dongchen Zhao
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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This dissertation consists of three chapters. The first chapter concerns the secular changes in the U.S. firm size distribution and firm dynamics. This chapter sets up a quantitative model of firm dynamics with debt heterogeneity to study the implications of changes in real interest rates for the firm size distribution and firm dynamics. It shows that the decline in long-term real interest rates since the early 1980s can account for a significant fraction of the shift in employment shares to large firms as well as the decline in firms per capita and firm entry rates experienced in the U.S. over the same period. In the model, firms endogenously choose financial intermediaries issuing debt with either earnings-based (EBC) or asset-based (ABC) borrowing constraints. The two types of constraints arise naturally from the imperfect enforceability of debt contracts and are in line with recent empirical findings. A decline in real interest rates benefits firms with EBC more because they are not constrained by their assets and can expand more due to increased earnings. Since firms with higher earnings optimally choose earnings-based lending, the decline in real interest rates shifts employment shares to larger firms. Moreover, the growth of large firms crowds out smaller firms and firm entry through general equilibrium effects. The paper tests the mechanism in cross-country data from the OECD and finds a stronger association between the decline in real interest rates and changes in firm dynamics, especially in countries with deeper credit markets. In the second chapter, I study the effects of government regulations on firm dynamism. The impact of government regulations on the economy is a central topic in policy debates. However, due to the endogeneity of regulations and challenges in measuring them, these debates remain contentious. This paper establishes the causal effects of government regulations on firm dynamism by employing a novel shift-share (Bartik) instrument in conjunction with the RegData dataset, which quantifies regulations based on the text of federal regulatory documents. The primary assumption for identification is that, for each sector, the exposure to regulations from different government agencies at the beginning of the period is exogenous to any confounding factors. The findings reveal that government regulatory restrictions significantly increase firm exit rates and discourage the formation of establishments, while having no substantial impact on firm entry. Furthermore, these restrictions contribute to reduced job creation, elevated job destruction, and diminished overall employment. These effects are consistently observed across various age groups. The results lend support to the idea that government regulations can raise production costs for firms and/or enhance the monopolistic power of certain companies. Both mechanisms can diminish the profits of affected firms, leading to increased firm exit rates and reduced labor demand. Additionally, the findings refute the interpretation of regulations as solely serving as entry barriers. The final chapter of the dissertation investigates the labor market outcomes for involuntary part-time workers and their subsequent effects on welfare levels. Through an analysis of survey data, I demonstrate that involuntary part-time workers exhibit reservation wages comparable to those of unemployed workers. This similarity largely stems from parallel wage offers and offer arrival rates. Contrary to previous research, this finding indicates that involuntary part-time workers experience welfare levels akin to unemployed workers. One possible explanation for this discrepancy lies in the methodology of prior studies. Conclusions drawn from earlier research, which primarily focused on the faster transition of involuntary part-time workers into full-time positions compared to other workers, may be flawed. This is because these workers also tend to revert to their previous job types at a faster rate. To further explore the implications of these discoveries, I employ a quantitative search model. The calibrated model supports the assertion that involuntary part-time workers experience welfare levels similar to those of unemployed workers. Furthermore, the model suggests that neither extending unemployment insurance to part-time workers nor enhancing the likelihood that unemployed workers transition to part-time positions would effectively increase the prevalence of full-time employment
Author: Feng Dong (Economist)
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Electronic dissertations
Languages : en
Pages : 160
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The dissertation, which consists of three chapters, is devoted to exploring financial and labor markets with frictions. Chapter I: Unemployment and Capital Misallocation. The recent recession was associated not only with a marked disruption in the credit market, but also a sharp deterioration in labor market conditions, as evidenced by high unemployment rates and an outward shift in the Beveridge curve. Motivated by such co-movements of the credit market and the labor market, in this chapter I develop a tractable dynamic model with heterogeneous entrepreneurs, credit constraints, and labor-search frictions. In this framework, the misallocation of capital across firms has an adverse effect on the matching efficiency in the labor market. I then quantify the importance of capital misallocation for understanding the behavior of unemployment rate. I find that the credit crunch was the key driving force behind the outward shift in the Beveridge curve during and after the Great Recession. More broadly, I find that credit market frictions and labor search frictions almost equally contributed to unemployment over all business cycles between 1951 and 2011. Chapter II: Asset Exchange with Search Frictions and Costly Information Acquisition. The second chapter presents a model to characterize conditions under which centralized and decentralized markets (CM/DM) co-exist for asset trading. The asset payoff and trading motive are the seller's private information. CM is immune to search frictions, but suffers from adverse selection. In contrast, DM is subject to search frictions, but it is sustainable since buyers acquire costly information on the asset payoff, and offer a trading menu different from that posted by uninformed buyers. As matching efficiency in the DM increases and the information cost decreases, more trade migrates from CM with adverse selection to DM with search frictions. In the limit, DM with search frictions converges to CM with complete information. I use the model to address the heterogeneous welfare effect of a government asset purchase programs like the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Chapter III: A Search-Based Theory of The Life-Cycle Pattern of Asset Holding. The third chapter investigates the implications of search frictions for a household's life cycle pattern of asset trading as well as for its size distribution in the OTC. General types of preferences are considered and the usual search-theoretic restriction of indivisibility on asset holding is removed. I employ the birth-and-death process to analytically characterize the non-stationary life-cycle pattern of asset holding by each cohort. In the presence of search frictions in the OTC, our paper predicts that the life cycle of asset holding by each cohort conforms to a geometric distribution while the size distribution of asset holding in each cross-section follows a logarithmic pattern. In the end, our model yields Gibrat's law for asset trading in the OTC.
Author: Christoph Ungerer
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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The classical treatment of market transactions in economics presumes that buyers and sellers engage in transactions instantly and at no cost. In a series of applications in the housing market, the labour market and the market for corporate bonds, this thesis shows that relaxing this assumption has important implications for Macroeconomics and Finance. The first chapter combines theory and empirical evidence to show that search frictions in the housing market imply a housing liquidity channel of monetary policy transmission. Expansionary monetary policy attracts buyers to the housing market, raising housing liquidity. Higher housing sale rates in turn allow lenders to threaten foreclosure more effectively, because the expected carrying costs on foreclosure inventory are lower. Ex-ante, this makes banks willing to offer larger loans, stimulating aggregate demand. The second chapter uses a heterogeneous firm industry model to explore how the macroeconomic response to a temporary employer payroll tax cut depends on the hiring and firing costs faced by firms. Controversially, the presence of non-convex labour adjustment costs suggests that tax cuts create fewer jobs in recessions. When firms hoard labour during downturns, they do not respond to marginal tax cuts by hiring additional workers. The third chapter develops a theory in which trader career concerns generate an endogenous transaction friction. Traders are reluctant to sell assets below historical purchase price, since realizing a loss signals to the employer that the trader is incompetent. The chapter documents empirically several properties of corporate bond transaction data consistent with this theory of career-concerned traders.
Author: Alireza Sepahsalari
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Author: Neil Ware White (IV)
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 276
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This dissertation examines the impacts on the labor market of monetary policy and macroeconomic uncertainty. The first chapter examines how monetary policy shocks in the U.S. affect the flows of workers among three labor market categories--employment, unemployment, and non-participation--and assesses each flow's relative importance to changes in labor market "stock'' variables like the unemployment rate. I find that job loss accounts for the largest portion of monetary policy's effect on labor markets. I develop a New Keynesian model that incorporates these channels and show how a central bank can achieve welfare gains from targeting job loss, rather than output, in an otherwise standard Taylor rule. The second chapter examines the role of monetary policy in "job polarization.'' I argue that contractionary monetary policy has accelerated the decline of employment in routine occupations, which largely affected workers with a high-school degree but no college. In part by disproportionately affecting industries with high shares of routine occupations, contractionary monetary policy shocks lead to large and persistent shifts away from routine employment. Expansionary shocks, on the other hand, have little effect on these industries. Indeed, monetary policy's effect on overall employment is concentrated in routine jobs. These results highlight monetary policy's role in generating fluctuations not only in the level of employment, but also the composition of employment across occupations and industries. The third chapter introduces new direct measures of uncertainty derived from the Michigan Survey of Consumers. The series underlying these new measures are more strongly correlated with economic activity than many other series that are the basis for uncertainty proxies. The survey also facilitates comparison with response dispersion or disagreement, a commonly used proxy for uncertainty in the literature. Dispersion measures have low or negative correlation with direct measures of uncertainty and often have causal effects of opposite sign, suggesting that they are poor proxies for uncertainty. For the measures based on series most closely correlated with economic activity, positive uncertainty shocks are mildly expansionary. This result is robust across identification and estimation strategies and is consistent with "growth options'' theories of the effects of uncertainty.
Author: Mario Rafael Silva
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780355307344
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 200
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I study the interactions between liquidity constraints, monopolistic competition, and search frictions for product markets, labor markets, and credit markets. Monopolistic competition is especially important for three different reasons. First, there is an externality that links the demand of firms to the state of the economy. Second, under free entry, the product space is influenced by policy and interacts with liquidity constraints. Third, monopolistic competition generates markups, which can augment other wedges and thereby interact with liquidity constraints.The first chapter considers the role played by endogenous variety and monopolistic competition in the long-run transmission of monetary policy. The combination of free entry and product variety gives rise to both an intensive margin (quantity of particular good) and extensive margin (extent of variety), and search frictions imply that firm entry involves a congestion externality. Inflation generally reduces variety. Under constant-elasticity-of-substitution (CES) preferences, firms are inefficiently small, with the inefficiency increasing in product differentiation and the extent of search frictions. The Friedman rule, which involves contracting the money supply at the rate of time preference, is the best policy under CES preferences. In contrast, with variable elasticity of demand, inflation can increase firm size, reduce markups, and raise welfare, even though output is lower. Under CES preferences, the welfare cost of inflation is high; moreover, it increases monotonically with the markup and is higher with endogenous variety than with a fixed variety alternative.The second chapter departs from the dramatic growth of revolving credit since 1970 relative to both consumption and consumer credit. Importantly, revolving credit primarily determines short-run household liquidity and comoves positively with product variety. I augment the Mortensen-Pissarides model with an endogenous borrowing constraints and free entry of monopolistically competitive firms. Unemployment is amplified from a two-way feedback: higher debt limits encourage firm entry and raise product variety (the entry channel), and greater variety makes default more costly and thereby raises the equilibrium debt level (the consumption value channel). I compare the model to a counterfactual economy in which either channel is shut down and find that mean amplification exceeds 50%. Furthermore, only the model economy generates a procyclical response of the credit-to-consumption ratio, as observed in the data.The third chapter examines the role of corporate finance and imperfect competition in the pass through of monetary policy to the real lending rate and its transmission into investment. Monopolistically competitive entrepreneurs can finance investment opportunities using bank-issued credit or money. They seek loans in an over-the-counter market where the terms of the contract (loan size, interest rate, and down payment) are negotiated subject to pledgeability constraints. I investigate pass through of the policy rate to the real lending rate and its transmission to output and investment, taking into account the interplay of (1) heterogeneous financial frictions from limited enforcement and (2) aggregate demand externalities from monopolistic competition. Whereas returns to scale or product diversity are not important for the pass through, the former substantially affect the transmission of policy to investment and output. Furthermore, financial frictions interact positively with demand complementarities from monopolistic competition. Greater dispersion of financial frictions reduces investment and output and also increases transmission unevenly across the range of nominal policy rates, having a maximal effect at about a policy rate of 9%.
Author: Meri Obstbaum
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789526047355
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 51
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