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Author: Zhengyang Chen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We propose a novel approach that embeds Rational Expectations (RE) into a low- dimensional structural vector autoregression (SVAR). We establish an instrumental variable procedure internal to the SVAR founded on a purely theoretical framework, which does not rely on any mapping strategy to a reduced form. Alternatively, a separate strategy considers data external to the SVAR to aid in the identification of structural shocks on a purely empirical basis. We report clouds of responses from an RE-consistent theoretical model as well as regions of plausible responses from the empirical approach. We conclude that a Taylor Rule characterization of monetary policy shocks remains relevant when the theoretical RE-SVAR is properly augmented with information from fluctuations--or momentous events--in markets that garnered increased attention since 2008, such as reserves and various money markets.
Author: Zhengyang Chen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We propose a novel approach that embeds Rational Expectations (RE) into a low- dimensional structural vector autoregression (SVAR). We establish an instrumental variable procedure internal to the SVAR founded on a purely theoretical framework, which does not rely on any mapping strategy to a reduced form. Alternatively, a separate strategy considers data external to the SVAR to aid in the identification of structural shocks on a purely empirical basis. We report clouds of responses from an RE-consistent theoretical model as well as regions of plausible responses from the empirical approach. We conclude that a Taylor Rule characterization of monetary policy shocks remains relevant when the theoretical RE-SVAR is properly augmented with information from fluctuations--or momentous events--in markets that garnered increased attention since 2008, such as reserves and various money markets.
Author: Emerson Fernandes Marçal
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The rational expectation hypothesis is widely used in finance and macroeconomics. A natural research question comprises investigating whether models that use this hypothesis can fit the data well. Researchers have been developing econometric procedures to test rational expectation models. Johansen and Swensen showed how to test rational expectation restrictions in the case where the data generating process is a cointegrated vector autoregressive model. This study aims to achieve three objectives. The first objective is to extend Johansen and Swensen's framework to the case where the data generating process is a cointegrated vector autoregressive model with abrupt structural change (CVAR-SC). The second goal is to show that the type of rational expectation restrictions analysed in this paper imply co-breaking, as defined by Hendry. Finally, the restrictions on the CVAR-SC parameters implied by the present value model, which is a particular rational expectation model, are analysed and derived, and a test is developed. Two empirical exercises are reported. The first is Engsted's dataset and the second uses the dividend and share prices of an important Brazilian retail bank.
Author: Lutz Kilian
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108186874
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 757
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Book Description
Structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models are important tools for empirical work in macroeconomics, finance, and related fields. This book not only reviews the many alternative structural VAR approaches discussed in the literature, but also highlights their pros and cons in practice. It provides guidance to empirical researchers as to the most appropriate modeling choices, methods of estimating, and evaluating structural VAR models. The book traces the evolution of the structural VAR methodology and contrasts it with other common methodologies, including dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. It is intended as a bridge between the often quite technical econometric literature on structural VAR modeling and the needs of empirical researchers. The focus is not on providing the most rigorous theoretical arguments, but on enhancing the reader's understanding of the methods in question and their assumptions. Empirical examples are provided for illustration.
Author: Gary A. Anderson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Rational expectations (Economic theory)
Languages : en
Pages : 62
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Author: M. Hashem Pesaran
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Author: Gianni Amisano
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783642606243
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 200
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Author: Arnold Zellner
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9781139453431
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 736
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Book Description
Bringing together a collection of previously published work, this book provides a discussion of major considerations relating to the construction of econometric models that work well to explain economic phenomena, predict future outcomes and be useful for policy-making. Analytical relations between dynamic econometric structural models and empirical time series MVARMA, VAR, transfer function, and univariate ARIMA models are established with important application for model-checking and model construction. The theory and applications of these procedures to a variety of econometric modeling and forecasting problems as well as Bayesian and non-Bayesian testing, shrinkage estimation and forecasting procedures are also presented and applied. Finally, attention is focused on the effects of disaggregation on forecasting precision and the Marshallian Macroeconomic Model that features demand, supply and entry equations for major sectors of economies is analysed and described. This volume will prove invaluable to professionals, academics and students alike.
Author: John W. Keating
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Author: Graham Keith Shaw
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 150
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Author: Adam Cagliarini
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Interest rates
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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