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Author: Asian Development Bank
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230501060
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 164
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Book Description
Since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, East Asia has implemented a number of initiatives designed to strengthen monetary and financial cooperation, bolstering the region's resilience to economic and financial vulnerabilities. One such initiative is the ASEAN+3 Information Exchange and Policy Dialogue, which includes development of early warning systems (EWS) for financial crises. This book examines efforts to develop EWS models. Specifically, the book analyzes the current understanding of the causes of currency and banking crises, describes recent progress in developing and applying EWS models for currency and banking crises, reviews methodolgical issues, assesses the predictive power of EWS models and also highlights areas where further research is required to make these models more effective tools for policy analysis. The case studies apply both parametric and nonparametric approaches to EWS modleing using data from six East Asian countries.
Author: Asian Development Bank
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230501060
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 164
Get Book Here
Book Description
Since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, East Asia has implemented a number of initiatives designed to strengthen monetary and financial cooperation, bolstering the region's resilience to economic and financial vulnerabilities. One such initiative is the ASEAN+3 Information Exchange and Policy Dialogue, which includes development of early warning systems (EWS) for financial crises. This book examines efforts to develop EWS models. Specifically, the book analyzes the current understanding of the causes of currency and banking crises, describes recent progress in developing and applying EWS models for currency and banking crises, reviews methodolgical issues, assesses the predictive power of EWS models and also highlights areas where further research is required to make these models more effective tools for policy analysis. The case studies apply both parametric and nonparametric approaches to EWS modleing using data from six East Asian countries.
Author: Qaiser Munir
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781466694842
Category : BUSINESS & ECONOMICS
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Addresses the inequity of developed and developing nations from the bottom up through an exploration of current literature, specific case-studies, and data-based recommendations for new crisis indicators. It explores such topics as the Greek debt crisis, electronic banking, and financial crises in developing economies.
Author: Morris Goldstein
Publisher: Peterson Institute
ISBN: 9780881322378
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 166
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Book Description
This study reviews the literature on the origins of currency and banking crises. It presents empirical tests on the performance of alternative early-warning indicators for emerging-market economies. The book also identifies crisis-threshold values for early-warning indicators.
Author: Mr.Stijn Claessens
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475561008
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 66
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Book Description
This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Author: Carmen M. Reinhart
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691152640
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 513
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Book Description
An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last 800 years.
Author: Ms. Sally Chen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513582305
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 79
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Book Description
Can the upturns and downturns in financial variables serve as early warning indicators of banking crises? Using data from 59 advanced and emerging economies, we show that financial overheating can be detected in real time. Equity prices and output gap are the best leading indicators in advanced markets; in emerging markets, these are equity and property prices and credit gap. Moreover, aggregating this information flags financial crisis many years before the crisis. Lastly, we find that the length of financial cycles is of medium-term frequency, calling into question the longer frequency widely used in the estimation of countercyclical capital buffers.
Author: Paolo Manasse
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451875258
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF financing in excess of 100 percent of quota. By means of logit and binary recursive tree analysis, we identify macroeconomic variables reflecting solvency and liquidity factors that predict a debt-crisis episode one year in advance. The logit model predicts 74 percent of all crises entries while sending few false alarms, and the recursive tree 89 percent while sending more false alarms.
Author: Mr.Stijn Claessens
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484355261
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 754
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Book Description
The lingering effects of the economic crisis are still visible—this shows a clear need to improve our understanding of financial crises. This book surveys a wide range of crises, including banking, balance of payments, and sovereign debt crises. It begins with an overview of the various types of crises and introduces a comprehensive database of crises. Broad lessons on crisis prevention and management, as well as the short-term economic effects of crises, recessions, and recoveries, are discussed.
Author: Dominic Barton
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0471429732
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 323
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Book Description
A corporate guide to crisis management in volatile financial markets Current financial crises in Argentina, Japan, and Turkey are being played out on the front pages of newspapers, and these are just the most recent financial crises that have rolled across the globe in the last decade and whose far-reaching impact hurts business around the world. Dangerous Markets: Managing in Financial Crises recognizes that no global corporation or financial institution can afford to ignore the potential of a financial storm and will help top management and financial professionals navigate through this often disastrous maze. While many books discuss financial crises and their ramifications, none has presented an action plan for managing these storms—until now. Dangerous Markets: Managing in Financial Crises presents a method that allows executives and financial professionals to recognize the warning signs of a financial crisis and act appropriately before the situation spirals out of control. Based on years of research and practice in cleaning up the mess, McKinsey consultants Barton, Newell, and Wilson reveal the warning signs of potential financial catastrophes and provide unique principles that can be followed to shape and manage a strategy for survival.
Author: Mr.Eduardo Borensztein
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 9781557758286
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption to other developing countries, and have even had repercussions on advanced economies. To predict crises, their causes must be clearly understood. Two competing strands of theories are reviewed in this paper. The first focuses on the consequences of such policies as excessive credit growth in provoking depletion of foreign exchange reserves and making a devaluation enevitable. The second emphasizes the trade-offs between internal and external balance that the policymaker faces in defending a peg.
