Dynamic Relationship Between Futures Trading and Spot Price Volatility PDF Download
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Author: Rahuldeb Das
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
In this study, an attempt has been made to identify the relationship between the spot price and the level of futures trading in the Indian commodity market using Granger causality test. For a better explanation of causality, the procedure of forecast error variance decomposition has been used. The study indicates that for most of the commodities there is a causal relationship between unexpected futures trading volume and spot price volatility. Furthermore, there is a weak form of causality between spot price volatility and unexpected futures open interest.
Author: Rahuldeb Das
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
In this study, an attempt has been made to identify the relationship between the spot price and the level of futures trading in the Indian commodity market using Granger causality test. For a better explanation of causality, the procedure of forecast error variance decomposition has been used. The study indicates that for most of the commodities there is a causal relationship between unexpected futures trading volume and spot price volatility. Furthermore, there is a weak form of causality between spot price volatility and unexpected futures open interest.
Author: Brajesh Kumar
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
This study investigates the relationship between futures trading activity and spot market volatility for agricultural, metal, precious metals and energy commodities in Indian commodity derivatives market. This article contributes to the debate whether the futures trading in Indian commodity futures market stabilizes or destabilizes spot market. We explore this issue by modeling contemporaneous as well as dynamic relationship between spot volatility and futures trading activity including trading volume (speculative/day trading) and open interest (hedging). Following Bessembinder and Senguin (1992), we examine contemporaneous relationship through augmented GARCH model in which spot volatility is modeled as GARCH (1,1) process and trading activity is used as explanatory variable. We also decompose futures trading volume and open interest series into expected and unexpected component. The lead-lag relationship between spot price volatility and futures trading volume and open interest is investigated through VAR model. Granger causality tests, forecast error variance decompositions and impulse response function are used to understand the dynamic relationship between these variables. We found that both expected and unexpected futures trading volume affects contemporaneous spot volatility positively. However, in case of agricultural commodities only unexpected volume affects the contemporaneous spot volatility. Granger causality tests, forecast error variance decompositions and impulse response function confirm that the lagged unexpected volatility causes spot price volatility for all commodities. The effect of speculative/day trading activity measured by trading volume on spot market volatility is positive. However, hedging activity measured by open interest does not show significant effect on spot market volatility. We do not find any effect of spot volatility on futures trading activity for most of the commodities.
Author: Wan Mansor Mahmood
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The study examines the relations between returns, trade volume and market depth for two futures contracts, namely, Stock Index (SI) futures and Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures traded at the Kuala Lumpur Option and Financial Futures (KLOFFE), and Commodity and Monetary Exchange (COMMEX), respectively. The study looks on the effect of volume as well as open interest, proxy of market depth, on volatility and vice versa. Since both volume and open interest are highly serially correlated, the study partitioned these variables into expected and unexpected component. The results of this study show a positive expected and unexpected volume and market depth on volatility, similar with previous study on futures market.
Author: Robert S. Pindyck
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
I discuss the short-run dynamics of commodity prices, production, and inventories, as well as the sources and effects of market volatility. I explain how prices, rates of production, and inventory levels are interrelated, and are determined via equilibrium in two interconnected markets: a cash market for spot purchases and sales of the commodity, and a market for storage. I show how equilibrium in these markets affects and is affected by changes in the level of price volatility. I also explain the role and behavior of commodity futures markets, and the relationship between spot pries, futures prices, and inventory behavior. I illustrate these ideas with data for the petroleum complex--crude oil, heating oil, and gasoline--over the past two decades.
Author: Antonios Antoniou
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Futures market
Languages : en
Pages : 19
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Book Description
Author: Mark Helweg
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 047127481X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 240
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Book Description
Using the insights that stem from value charts and price action profiles, Dynamic Trading Indicators shows traders how to develop systems and whole trading programs that implement these exciting new tools. Through an in-depth exploration of how to effectively use these new technical indicators in a complete trading system, Dynamic Trading Indicators provides a framework that allows readers to obtain a view of what a stock will most likely do next. This innovation in chart design opens up new vistas for traders and unlocks the door to unlimited profits. New technology and the advent of around the clock trading have opened the floodgates to both foreign and domestic markets. Traders need the wisdom of industry veterans and the vision of innovators in today's volatile financial marketplace. The Wiley Trading series features books by traders who have survived the market's ever changing temperament and have prospered-some by reinventing systems, others by getting back to basics. Whether a novice trader, professional or somewhere in-between, these books will provide the advice and strategies needed to prosper today and well into the future. Mark W. Helweg has worked and traded on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade and, earlier in his career, partnered with an international CTA with over $40 million under management to research new trading system technology. David C. Stendahl is cofounder of RINA Systems, a software provider for systematic traders. Stendahl is the author of Profit Strategies: Unlocking Trading Performance with Money Management.
Author: Chandra Bhola
Publisher: Ary Publisher
ISBN: 9788798623045
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This study investigates the impact of futures trading on stock market volatility and hedging efficiency, focusing on the S&P CNX Nifty index and select stocks in India. By conducting a comprehensive analysis, this research aims to examine the relationship between futures trading activity and its influence on market volatility and the effectiveness of hedging strategies. The study utilizes empirical methods to evaluate the effects of futures trading on stock market volatility. It analyzes the S&P CNX Nifty index, which represents the broader market, and specific individual stocks to understand how futures trading impacts price fluctuations and overall market stability. Furthermore, the research assesses the hedging efficiency of futures contracts as risk management tools. It examines whether investors can effectively hedge their positions and reduce portfolio risk through futures trading. By evaluating the effectiveness of hedging strategies in the context of the Indian stock market, this study provides valuable insights for market participants. Overall, this study delves into the impact of futures trading on stock market volatility and hedging efficiency in India. By examining the S&P CNX Nifty index and select stocks, it aims to shed light on the relationship between futures trading and market dynamics. The findings contribute to the understanding of risk management practices and assist investors in making informed decisions related to hedging strategies in the Indian stock market.
Author: Gregory Duffee
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Program trading (Securities)
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Book Description
Author: Sanford J. Grossman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Financial futures
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
Author: Mr.Peter Wickham
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451954727
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 20
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Book Description
This paper examines the behavior of crude oil prices since 1980, and in particular the volatility of these prices. The empirical analysis covers “spot” prices for one of the key internationally traded crudes, namely Dated Brent Blend. A GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic) model, which allows the conditional variance to be time-variant, is estimated for the period which includes the oil price slump of 1986 and the surge in prices in 1990 as a result of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. The paper also discusses the growth of futures and derivative markets and the dynamic links between spot and futures markets.
