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Author: Shri Krishna Kimothi
Publisher: Quality Press
ISBN: 1636941818
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 398
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Book Description
The uncertainty of measurement results is drawing attention of managers, metrologists and customers. The accuracy of measurements affects all of us in trade, commerce, safety, health care environmental protection and more. The quality of these measurements are regulated by a variety of government agencies. Measurement also plays an important role in manufacturing and service organizations. Use this book to learn more about metrology and the need for reliable measurements. You can also learn about measurement system and quality of measurement systems, objectives and methods. Statistical techniques in metrology are also explained. Examples of measurement data and random variables, probability density functions, sampling distribution, statistical estimation degrees of freedom and regression are included. An entire chapter is devoted to measurement errors. The book goes in-depth into explaining national and international measurement systems and standards, and includes a complete chapter on calibration and measurement trace ability. Measurement Uncertainty will show how to evaluate various uncertainties in measurements using several approaches including international consensus. Calibration laboratories can look specifically at the chapter on that profession to guide them in their measurement improvements. Kimothi also looks at specific industries and their measurement capabilities and includes examples of R&R studies. A great resource for the CQE, CQT, CCT, CSSBB certification exams!
Author: Dennis V. Lindley
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470055472
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 268
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Book Description
A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill." Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules--craftily laid out in the book--that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science. With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability and: * Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, its truths, and its falsehoods * Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century about uncertainty * Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face of uncertainty * Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentieth century * Shows readers how to discern if another person--whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist--is talking sense, posing the right questions, or obtaining sound answers Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts and operations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for all students who have probability or statistics as part of their course, even at the most introductory level.
Author: Anastasia Shesterinina
Publisher: Cornell University Press
ISBN: 1501753789
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 258
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Book Description
Winner of the Davis Center Book Prize in Political and Social Studies Co-winner of the Charles Taylor Book Award How do ordinary people navigate the intense uncertainty of the onset of war? Individuals mobilize in different ways—some flee, some pick up arms, and some support armed actors. Drawing on nearly two hundred in-depth interviews with participants and nonparticipants in the Georgian-Abkhaz war of 1992–1993, Mobilizing in Uncertainty explores Abkhaz mobilization decisions during that conflict. Anastasia Shesterinina uncovers that to make sense of the violence, Abkhaz leaders, local authority figures, and others relied on shared understandings of the conflict and their roles in it—collective conflict identities—that they had developed before the war. People consolidated mobilization decisions within small groups of family and friends and based their actions on whom they understood to be threatened and mobilized to protect. Their decisions shaped how the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict unfolded. Mobilizing in Uncertainty sheds light on broader processes of violence, which have lasting effects on societies marked by intergroup conflict.
Author: George J. Klir
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0471755567
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 499
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Book Description
Deal with information and uncertainty properly and efficientlyusing tools emerging from generalized information theory Uncertainty and Information: Foundations of Generalized InformationTheory contains comprehensive and up-to-date coverage of resultsthat have emerged from a research program begun by the author inthe early 1990s under the name "generalized information theory"(GIT). This ongoing research program aims to develop a formalmathematical treatment of the interrelated concepts of uncertaintyand information in all their varieties. In GIT, as in classicalinformation theory, uncertainty (predictive, retrodictive,diagnostic, prescriptive, and the like) is viewed as amanifestation of information deficiency, while information isviewed as anything capable of reducing the uncertainty. A broadconceptual framework for GIT is obtained by expanding theformalized language of classical set theory to include moreexpressive formalized languages based on fuzzy sets of varioustypes, and by expanding classical theory of additive measures toinclude more expressive non-additive measures of varioustypes. This landmark book examines each of several theories for dealingwith particular types of uncertainty at the following fourlevels: * Mathematical formalization of the conceived type ofuncertainty * Calculus for manipulating this particular type ofuncertainty * Justifiable ways of measuring the amount of uncertainty in anysituation formalizable in the theory * Methodological aspects of the theory With extensive use of examples and illustrations to clarify complexmaterial and demonstrate practical applications, generoushistorical and bibliographical notes, end-of-chapter exercises totest readers' newfound knowledge, glossaries, and an Instructor'sManual, this is an excellent graduate-level textbook, as well as anoutstanding reference for researchers and practitioners who dealwith the various problems involving uncertainty and information. AnInstructor's Manual presenting detailed solutions to all theproblems in the book is available from the Wiley editorialdepartment.
Author: Karl Halvor Teigen
Publisher:
ISBN: 9788215018782
Category : Decision making
Languages : en
Pages : 296
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Book Description
This book gives insights into the most recent developments in research on judgement and decision-making. It contains contributions from some of the best-known experts in this broad field. The book is written for a wide audience and is of interest for anyone who wants to understand and improve his or her ability to make appropriate judgements and decisions. The different chapters cover a great variety of topics related to probability judgements and risk perception, cognitive and emotional processes underlying judgement, and the pragmatics of choice behaviour along with related aspects of social cognition. The different chapters, written by researchers from many countries and from different domains including psychology, linguistics, business administration and marketing, reflect the multi-disciplinary character of the book.
Author: Doris Brothers
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1135469024
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 239
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Book Description
Since trauma is a thoroughly relational phenomenon, it is highly unpredictable, and cannot be made to fit within the scientific framework Freud so admired. In Toward a Psychology of Uncertainty: Trauma-Centered Psychoanalysis, Doris Brothers urges a return to a trauma-centered psychoanalysis. Making use of relational systems theory, she shows that experiences of uncertainty are continually transformed by the regulatory processes of everyday life such as feeling, knowing, forming categories, making decisions, using language, creating narratives, sensing time, remembering, forgetting, and fantasizing. Insofar as trauma destroys the certainties that organize psychological life, it plunges our relational systems into chaos and sets the stage for the emergence of rigid, life-constricting relational patterns. These trauma-generated patterns, which often involve denial of sameness and difference, the creation of complexity-reducing dualities, and the transformation of certainty into certitude, figure prominently in virtually all of the complaints for which patients seek analytic treatment. Analysts, she claims, are no more strangers to trauma than are their patients. Using in-depth clinical illustrations, Dr. Brothers demonstrates how a mutual desire to heal and to be healed from trauma draws patients and analysts into their analytic relationships. She recommends the reconceptualization of what has heretofore been considered transference and countertransference in terms of the transformation of experienced uncertainty. In her view the increased ability of both analytic partners to live with uncertainty is the mark of a successful treatment. Dr. Brothers’ perspective sheds fresh light on a variety of topics of great general interest to analysts as well as many of their patients, such as gender, the acceptance of death, faith, cult-like training programs, and burnout. Her discussions of these topics are enlivened by references to contemporary cinema and theatre.
Author: Frank H. Knight
Publisher: Courier Corporation
ISBN: 0486147932
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 450
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Book Description
DIVThis enduring economics text provided the theoretical basis of the entrepreneurial American economy during the post-industrial era. A revolutionary work, it taught the world how to systematically distinguish between risk and uncertainty. /div
Author: Ralph Hertwig
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262353148
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 489
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Book Description
An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure? Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty. Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do. Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty. They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others. This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change. They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality—that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments. Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.
Author: Limor Samimian-Darash
Publisher: Cornell University Press
ISBN: 1501762478
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 188
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Book Description
In Uncertainty by Design Limor Samimian-Darash presents cases of the use of scenario technology in the fields of security and emergency preparedness, energy, and health by analyzing scenario narratives and practices at the National Emergency Management Authority in Israel, the World Health Organization's Regional Office for Europe, and the World Energy Council. Humankind has long struggled with the uncertainty of the future, with how to foresee the future, imagine alternatives, or prepare for and guard against undesirable eventualities. Scenario—or scenario planning—emerged in recent decades to become a widespread means through which states, large corporations, and local organizations imagine and prepare for the future. The scenario technology cases examined in Uncertainty by Design provide a useful lens through which to view contemporary efforts to engage in an overall journey of discovering the future, along with the modality of governing involved in these endeavors to face future uncertainties. Collectively, they enable us to understand in depth how scenarios express a new governing modality.
Author: William Briggs
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319397567
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 274
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Book Description
This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance." The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, such as out-of-the-box regression, cannot help in discovering cause. This new way of looking at uncertainty ties together disparate fields — probability, physics, biology, the “soft” sciences, computer science — because each aims at discovering cause (of effects). It broadens the understanding beyond frequentist and Bayesian methods to propose a Third Way of modeling.
Author: Millett Granger Morgan
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521427449
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 354
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Book Description
A risk analysis textbook which is intended as a basic text for students as well as a reference for practitioners and researchers. It provides a basis for policy analysis and draws upon a variety of case studies.
