Devaluations and Depreciation Expectations in the E.M.S. PDF Download
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Author: Juan Ayuso Huertas
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Depreciation
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
Author: Juan Ayuso Huertas
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Depreciation
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
Author: Mr.Lars E. O. Svensson
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451949960
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 35
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Book Description
The paper presents estimates of devaluation expectations for six EMS currencies relative to the Deutsche mark, for the period March 1979-May 1990. The estimation method is simple and operational, and consistently generates sensible results. The estimates are constructed by the adjusting interest rate differentials by subtracting estimated expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band. The adjustment is nontrivial because exchange rates within the ERM bands display mean reversion rather than random walk (unit root) behavior. The adjustment is essential since the expected rates of depreciation are usually of about the same magnitude as the interest rate differentials.
Author: Una-Louise Bell
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
Los altos costes de despido en Europa han sido acusados insistentemente de la debil situacion del empleo. Sin embargo, las conclusiones que se extraen de la literatura relevante son algo ambiguas. Este trabajo analiza de nuevo el impacto de los costes de ajuste bajo incertidumbre. Se demuestra que la interaccion entre el nivel de los costes de ajuste y el tipo de incertidumbre puede tener importantes ramificaciones para la dinamica del empleo. En concreto, encontramos que el permitir la posibilidad de condiciones economicas transitorias aumenta considerablemente la persistencia del empleo. Concluimos el analisis con una serie de ejercicios de simulacion para ilustrar que el permitir cambios en el entorno economico en el que las empresas han venido operando en las ultimas dos decadas puede aumentar considerablemente nuestro entendimiento de la evolucion del empleo en Europa (ub) (mac).
Author: Hans Lindberg
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Devaluation of currency
Languages : en
Pages : 72
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Book Description
Devaluation expectations for the Swedish krona are estimated for the period 1982-1991 with several methods. First the "simplest test" is applied under either only the minimal assumption of "no positive minimum profit" or the additional assumption of uncovered interest parity. Then a more precise method suggested by Bertola and Svensson is used, in which expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band, estimated in several ways, are subtracted from interest rate differentials. In addition the probability density of the time of devaluations is estimated. Finally, estimated devaluation expectations are to some extent explained by a few macrovariables and parliament elections
Author: Sinimaaria Ranki
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Banks and banking
Languages : en
Pages : 180
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Book Description
The purpose of this study is to analyze realignment expectations in the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System, in particular with reference to the five year period (1987-1992) during which no realignments were done.
Author: Mr.Paul R. Masson
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451929099
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
This paper examines credibility and reputational factors in explaining the December 1994 crisis of the Mexican peso. After reviewing events leading to the crisis, a model emphasizing the inflation-competitiveness trade-off is presented to explain the formation of devaluation expectations. Estimation results indicate that investors appear to have seriously underestimated the risk of devaluation, despite early warning signals. The collapse of confidence that followed the December 20 devaluation may have been the result of a shift in the perceived commitment of the authorities to exchange rate stability.
Author: Regina Kaiser
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 92
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Book Description
El objetivo de este trabajo es proporcionar una introduccion informal a las herramientas del analisis de series temporales y a los conceptos necesarios para comprender la metodologia basica en la que se fundamenta la aplicacion de filtros. El trabajo esta dirigido a analistas en general que realicen trabajos aplicados en este campo, pero que no hayan cursado un modulo avanzado de analisis aplicado de series temporales. Se ha puesto especial enfasis en el metodo basado en modelos, aunque gran parte del material tambien puede aplicarse al uso de filtros 'ad-hoc'. La estructura basica consiste en modelizar la serie como un proceso estocastico lineal y estimar los componentes mediante la 'extraccion de una señal', es decir, mediante la estimacion optima de componentes generados por modelos estadisticos bien definidos.(am) (ad).
Author: Soyoung Kim
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
Author: Enrique Alberola Ila
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Banks and banking, Central
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
Finds that there is a strong correlation between persistent unemployment and central bank independence.
Author: Paul de Grauwe
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 9780198289869
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 372
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Book Description
The Maastricht Treaty makes the convergence of inflation rates one of the preconditions of European Monetary Union (EMU). The purpose of this study is to shed light on the mechanism underlying the processes that lead to convergence or divergence in national inflation rates. It examinesinflation and wage bahaviour in the European Monetary System (EMS), their determinants, and their implications for the credibility and sustainability of the system's exchange rate mechanism (ERM). Although the focus is on the EMS period, eleven of the twelve studies also review the background of the1970s. The contributors examine issues of monetary control, stability of national and ERM-wide money-demand function, the monetary policy of Germany - the pivotal country in the EMS - and its influence on the stability of the system after the fall of the Berlin Wall. As well as explaining how theEMS worked, the book also offers reasons for its breakdown in 1992-3 under the blow of exogenous shocks and growing policy conflict between member countries.The study identifies several causes of inflation and persistent inflation differentials in the EMS. Among the 'real' causes, particular attention is devoted to sectoral productivity shocks. In some countries, import price shocks, exogenous wage pushes, taxes, and government expenditure are bound tobe important factors. Since theses kinds of shock hit the various economies of the region differently, inflation differntials can persist for several years. The different policies of governments and central banks, and the fact the monetary policies have not always been consistent with the long-runmaintenance of fixed exchange rates, have also played a considerable role in explaining the persistance of inflation differentials.
