Determinants of Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran-A Macroeconomic Analysis PDF Download
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Author: Olumuyiwa Adedeji
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781451854978
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Book Description
This study establishes a framework for analyzing the major determinants of inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran. An empirical model was estimated by taking into consideration disequilibria in the markets for money, foreign exchange, and goods. Results strongly support the need for a sustained prudent monetary policy in order to reduce inflation and stabilize the foreign exchange market. The estimation shows that an excess money supply generates an increase in the rate of inflation that, in turn, intensifies asset substitution (from money to foreign exchange), thereby weakening real demand for money and exerting pressures on the foreign exchange market. The study also found that a permanent rise in real income tends to increase the real demand for money and reduces inflation in the long run.
Author: Olumuyiwa Adedeji
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781451854978
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Book Description
This study establishes a framework for analyzing the major determinants of inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran. An empirical model was estimated by taking into consideration disequilibria in the markets for money, foreign exchange, and goods. Results strongly support the need for a sustained prudent monetary policy in order to reduce inflation and stabilize the foreign exchange market. The estimation shows that an excess money supply generates an increase in the rate of inflation that, in turn, intensifies asset substitution (from money to foreign exchange), thereby weakening real demand for money and exerting pressures on the foreign exchange market. The study also found that a permanent rise in real income tends to increase the real demand for money and reduces inflation in the long run.
Author: Olin Liu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Cointegration
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
Author: Leo Bonato
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
This paper looks at the determinants of inflation in Iran. Unlike the traditional estimates of the demand function for real money balances, the approach followed here focuses on the relationship between nominal variables and inflation. The model estimates are used to address the questions raised by the decline in inflation that occurred up to the first half of 2006, looking at the structural stability of the estimated relationships and the ability of the model to predict inflation at the end of the sample. The estimates confirm the strong relationship between money and inflation when M1 is used, with no evidence of a structural change.
Author: H. Elif Ture
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 35
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Book Description
High and volatile inflation has been an endemic economic and social issue in Iran that has contributed to rising poverty and social tensions. For policymakers to effectively address the inflation problem, it is critical to understand its causes. This paper seeks to contribute to this endeavor by applying a vector error-correction model to study the short- and long-term determinants of inflation in Iran over the past two decades and identify policy options to curb it. Using quarterly data spanning 2004-2021, it finds that money growth drives inflation only in the long term, while currency depreciation, fiscal deficits, and sanctions (proxied by oil exports) drive inflation both in the short- and the long term. In the absence of a removal of US trade and financial sanctions that could significantly boost the rial, budget deficits will have to be adjusted to contain inflation, albeit gradually to avoid hindering the recovery. Over the medium term, strengthening the inflation targeting framework could help improve monetary transmission and contain inflation durably.
Author: Oya Celasun
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
This study examines money demand and inflation dynamics in the Islamic Republic of Iran using quarterly data for the period 1990/91-2001/02 and tests whether the disinflation during 2000/01-2001/02 represents a structural break in the data. A long-run money market equilibrium condition is identified and the short-run behavior of the inflation, measured in terms of non-administered component of the consumer price index (CPI) is modeled conditional on the disequilibria in the money market. Estimation results indicate that the stabilization of the exchange rate on account of strong oil revenues during 2000/01-2001/02 buoyed the demand for domestic money and contributed to the decline in inflation. Tests of model stability do not point to a structural shift in the inflation equation during the period of analysis.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1589064410
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 101
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Book Description
Iran has received much attention from a geopolitical and regional standpoint, but its economic challenges have not attracted a similar degree of interest. With a population of 69 million, considerable hydrocarbon resources, a dynamic and entrepreneurial middle class, and a relatively well-educated labor force, Iran's economic potential is considerable. This volume takes stock of critical developments in the Iranian economy in recent years. The study reviews the key issues and policy responses, highlights the nature of the challenges ahead, and draws implications for the next phase of reforms. The authors conclude that major challenges remain, although significant advances have been made in recent years in opening up the economy to international trade and foreign direct investment, encouraging the private sector, removing exchange restrictions, reforming the tax system, and enhancing macroeconomic management.
Author: Oya Celasun
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 22
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Book Description
This study examines money demand and inflation dynamics in the Islamic Republic of Iran using quarterly data for the period 1990/91-2001/02 and tests whether the disinflation during 2000/01-2001/02 represents a structural break in the data. A long-run money market equilibrium condition is identified and the short-run behavior of the inflation, measured in terms of non-administered component of the consumer price index (CPI) is modeled conditional on the disequilibria in the money market. Estimation results indicate that the stabilization of the exchange rate on account of strong oil revenues during 2000/01-2001/02 buoyed the demand for domestic money and contributed to the decline in inflation. Tests of model stability do not point to a structural shift in the inflation equation during the period of analysis.
Author: Vitaliy Kramarenko
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781451819069
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
This Selected Issues Paper on Iran reviews that monetary factors are the main determinants of inflation in the country. Government spending out of oil revenues leads to large liquidity injections that the central bank accommodates owing to its efforts to prevent a significant nominal appreciation of the rial and the lack of effective sterilization instruments. The growing discontent with inflation, however, has compelled policymakers to focus on this issue, bringing it to the forefront of the policy agenda.
Author: Mohamed A. El-Erian
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
Mobilization of national saving is an important determinant of investment and growth. It assumed greater importance in the case of the Iranian economy, given the difficult external environment. This paper discusses the recent saving performance of the Iranian economy, particularly in relation to investment needs. Following a quantitative evaluation of the determinants of saving, the paper reviews the main implications for domestic economic policies in the period ahead.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475583117
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
Islamic Republic of Iran: Selected Issues
