Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects PDF Download
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Author: John R. Schuyler
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 294
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Book Description
Some of Schuyler's tried-and-true tips include: - The single-point estimate is almost always wrong, so that it is always better to express judgments as ranges. A probability distribution completely expresses someone's judgment about the likelihood of values within the range.- We often need a single-value cost or other assessment, and the expected value (mean) of the distribution is the only unbiased predictor. Expected value is the probability-weighted average, and this statistical idea is the cornerstone of decision analysis.- Some decisions are easy, perhaps aided by quick decision tree calculations on the back of an envelope. Decision dilemmas typically involve risky outcomes, many factors, and the best alternatives having comparable value. We only need analysis sufficient to confidently identify the best alternative. As soon as you know what to do, stop the analysis!- Be alert to ways to beneficially change project risks. We can often eliminate, avoid, transfer, or mitigate threats in some way. Get to know the people who make their living helping managers sidestep risk. They include insurance agents, partners, turnkey contractors, accountants, trainers, and safety personnel.
Author: John R. Schuyler
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 294
Get Book Here
Book Description
Some of Schuyler's tried-and-true tips include: - The single-point estimate is almost always wrong, so that it is always better to express judgments as ranges. A probability distribution completely expresses someone's judgment about the likelihood of values within the range.- We often need a single-value cost or other assessment, and the expected value (mean) of the distribution is the only unbiased predictor. Expected value is the probability-weighted average, and this statistical idea is the cornerstone of decision analysis.- Some decisions are easy, perhaps aided by quick decision tree calculations on the back of an envelope. Decision dilemmas typically involve risky outcomes, many factors, and the best alternatives having comparable value. We only need analysis sufficient to confidently identify the best alternative. As soon as you know what to do, stop the analysis!- Be alert to ways to beneficially change project risks. We can often eliminate, avoid, transfer, or mitigate threats in some way. Get to know the people who make their living helping managers sidestep risk. They include insurance agents, partners, turnkey contractors, accountants, trainers, and safety personnel.
Author: John R. Schuyler
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 164
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Book Description
Author: Hugo Priemus
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1848440170
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 353
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Book Description
It will be useful for those experienced and senior professionals who are charged with authorizing and controlling projects. Recommended. P.F. Rad, Choice Building on the seminal work of Bent Flyvbjerg, this book is a collection of expert contributions that will prove essential to anyone wanting to understand why mega-projects go wrong and how they can be made to work better. Professor Sir Peter Hall, University College London, UK This book offers a refreshing and fascinating look at mega-projects from the perspective of public evaluation and planning. With the changing role of the public sector in planning and implementing large-scale projects and a subsequent strong emergence of private public modes of operation, mega-projects have become a problematic phenomenon. This volume is a major source of information and reference. It provides the reader with unique insights and caveats in mega-projects planning. Peter Nijkamp, VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands This book enlarges the understanding of decision-making on mega-projects and suggest recommendations for a more effective, efficient and democratic approach. Authors from different scientific disciplines address various aspects of the decision-making process, such as management characteristics and cost benefit analysis, planning and innovation and competition and institutions. The subject matter is highly diverse, but certain questions remain at the forefront. For example, how do we deal with protracted preparation processes, how do we tackle risks and uncertainties, and how can we best divide the risks and responsibilities among the private and public players throughout the different phases of the project? Presenting a state-of-the-art overview, based on experiences and visions of authors from Europe and North America, this unique book will be of interest to practitioners of large-scale project management, politicians, public officials and private organisations involved in mega-project decision-making. It will also appeal to researchers, consultants and students dealing with substantial engineering projects, complex systems, project management and transport infrastructure.
Author: David Charlesworth
Publisher: Business Expert Press
ISBN: 1606494899
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 144
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Book Description
Everybody has to make decisions—they are unavoidable. Yet we receive little or no education or training on how to make decisions. Business decisions can be dif_ cult: which people to hire, which product lines or facilities to expand and which to sell or shut down, which bid or proposal to accept, which process to implement, how much R&D to invest in, which environmental projects should receive the highest priority, etc. This book gives you all the tools you need to... • clarify and reach alignment on goals and objectives and understand trade-offs in reaching those goals, • develop and examine alternatives, • systematically analyze the effects of risk and uncertainty, and • maximize the chances of achieving your goals and objectives. Success (getting what you want) depends on luck and good decision making. You can’t control your luck, but you can maximize your odds by making the best possible decisions, and this book gets you there. Broadly speaking, this book organizes and presents otherwise formal decision-making tools in an intuitively understandable fashion. The presentation is informal, but the concepts and tools are research-based and formally accepted.
Author: Lev Virine
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317074793
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 216
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Book Description
Projects are constantly beset by problems, often caused by seemingly small mistakes which collectively lead to larger issues. Why do project managers and teams appear to repeat the same mistakes? Can they make better choices without introducing complex decision analysis processes? How can they make better estimates? Project management is the art and science of human interactions. ProjectThink identifies and explains the paths of those intentional and unintentional actions that lead to trouble. It provides advice and guidance in analysing information and risk and explains how ’choice-engineering’ can facilitate decision-making and encourage everyone involved in a project to follow the right procedures and work collaboratively.
Author: Robert A. Powell PhD
Publisher: Berrett-Koehler Publishers
ISBN: 1567263801
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 253
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Book Description
Make Better Decisions While Managing Projects! Decision-making is critical in project management. Lack of decision-making knowledge, avoidable mistakes, and improper definitions can negatively impact your company's ability to generate profit. The Project Manager's Guide to Making Successful Decisions is a practical handbook that focuses on the significance of project decision-making skills that will all you to reach workable and effective results. This valuable resource highlights numerous decisions necessary to support the project management life cycle, presents various techniques that facilitate the decision-making process, provides an overview of decision analysis as it relates to project management, and much more! + Understand different types of decision-making processes and cycles + Recognize how to frame the decision and gather better information + Define alternatives and assessments to make the right decision + Analyze short case studies demonstrating project decision making success
Author: Ahti Salo
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1441999434
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 410
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Book Description
Portfolio Decision Analysis: Improved Methods for Resource Allocation provides an extensive, up-to-date coverage of decision analytic methods which help firms and public organizations allocate resources to 'lumpy' investment opportunities while explicitly recognizing relevant financial and non-financial evaluation criteria and the presence of alternative investment opportunities. In particular, it discusses the evolution of these methods, presents new methodological advances and illustrates their use across several application domains. The book offers a many-faceted treatment of portfolio decision analysis (PDA). Among other things, it (i) synthesizes the state-of-play in PDA, (ii) describes novel methodologies, (iii) fosters the deployment of these methodologies, and (iv) contributes to the strengthening of research on PDA. Portfolio problems are widely regarded as the single most important application context of decision analysis, and, with its extensive and unique coverage of these problems, this book is a much-needed addition to the literature. The book also presents innovative treatments of new methodological approaches and their uses in applications. The intended audience consists of practitioners and researchers who wish to gain a good understanding of portfolio decision analysis and insights into how PDA methods can be leveraged in different application contexts. The book can also be employed in courses at the post-graduate level.
Author: Nolberto Munier
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9789401784429
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This book develops a whole strategy for decision-making, with the full participation of the decision-maker and utilizing continuous feedback. It introduces the use of the very well-known and proven methodology, linear programming, but specially adapted for this purpose. For this, it incorporates a method to include subjective concepts, as well as the possibility of working with many different and even contradictory objectives. The book is liberally populated with diverse case studies to illustrate the concepts. This practical guide will be of interest to anyone undertaking analysis and decision-making, on both simple and complex projects, and who is looking for a strategy to organize, classify, and evaluate the large amount of information required to make an informed decision. The strategy includes methods to analyze the results and extract conclusions from them.
Author: David C. Skinner
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 376
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Book Description
"This book is the most practical and thought-provoking step-by-step guide to making better decisions that is available today! Proven techniques and solid experience are the foundation for this classic text, which was written for the manager and for the decision analysis practitioner!"--
Author: Igor Linkov
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1439853185
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 206
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Book Description
Environmental management is often complicated and multidisciplinary and the issues that arise can be difficult to solve analytically. Often, decision makers take ad hoc approaches, which may result in the ignoring of important stakeholder opinions or decision criteria. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) provides a framework by which these types of decisions can be made but, despite being used effectively in many fields, it is not often used in environmental management. Given the novelty and inherent applicability of this decision making framework to the environmental field, there is a need for more teaching tools for MCDA. In particular, there is a need for a case study based approach to help readers navigate the many MCDA methods and decide how to apply them to a specific case. Through a collection of case studies, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: Environmental Applications and Case Studies gives readers the tools to apply cutting-edge MCDA methods to their own environmental projects. It offers an overview of the types of MCDA available and a conceptual framework of how it is applied, with the focus on its applicability for environmental science. Taking an in-depth look at the case of sediment management, the book introduces different steps of MCDA processes—from problem formulation and model development to criteria weighing and alternative scoring. The authors then explore the case using various MCDA methods, which allows readers to see clearly how the methodologies differ and gain a better understanding of the mechanistic operation of the analysis. A series of case studies in nanotechnology collectively demonstrate the application of MCDA in situations of high variability and uncertainty that require the integration of technical information and expert judgment—an area where MCDA clearly shines. The authors describe multiple decisions—from risk classification to value of information analysis to the assessment of potential research and funding investments—that readers may face in dealing with emerging environmental threats. Demonstrating the broad applicability of MCDA methods for different types of cases, the book presents a series of case studies ranging from oyster restoration to oil spill response. In conjunction with these cases, the book also provides corresponding decision models that are implemented by the DECERNS software and allow users to examine the same case using multiple MCDA tools. The DECERNS software and models are available for download at www.crcpress.com. Intended both as a research and teaching tool, this book inspires creative thinking when applying MCDA to complicated environmental issues.
