Cyclical Fluctuations in Brazil's Real Exchange Rate PDF Download
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Author: Mr.Carlos I. Medeiros
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 145193548X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
This paper examines the effects of capital inflows and domestic factors on Brazil’s real exchange rate. It describes the analytical framework, and then estimates a near-VAR model linking capital flows, interest rate differentials, government spending, money-base velocity, and the temporary component of the real exchange rate (TCRER). Generalized variance decompositions indicate that world interest rate shocks largely explain medium-term fluctuations in capital flows and the TCRER. Generalized impulse response functions show that a reduction in the world interest rate (and, to a lesser extent, an increase in government spending) have significant effects on the TCRER and capital flows.
Author: Mr.Carlos I. Medeiros
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 145193548X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
This paper examines the effects of capital inflows and domestic factors on Brazil’s real exchange rate. It describes the analytical framework, and then estimates a near-VAR model linking capital flows, interest rate differentials, government spending, money-base velocity, and the temporary component of the real exchange rate (TCRER). Generalized variance decompositions indicate that world interest rate shocks largely explain medium-term fluctuations in capital flows and the TCRER. Generalized impulse response functions show that a reduction in the world interest rate (and, to a lesser extent, an increase in government spending) have significant effects on the TCRER and capital flows.
Author: Mr.Bankim Chadha
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451855338
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
This paper analyzes the relationship between the real exchange rate and the business cycle in Japan during the floating rate period. A structural vector autoregression is used to identify different types of macroeconomic shocks that determine fluctuations in aggregate output and the real exchange rate. Relative nominal and real demand shocks are found to be the main determinants of variation in real exchange rate changes, while relative output growth is driven primarily by supply shocks. Historical decompositions suggest that the sharp appreciations of the yen in 1993 and 1995 and its subsequent depreciation can be attributed primarily to relative nominal shocks.
Author: Ronald MacDonald
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1475729979
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 226
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Book Description
Are foreign exchange markets efficient? Are fundamentals important for predicting exchange rate movements? What is the signal-to-ratio of high frequency exchange rate changes? Is it possible to define a measure of the equilibrium exchange rate that is useful from an assessment perspective? The book is a selective survey of current thinking on key topics in exchange rate economics, supplemented throughout by new empirical evidence. The focus is on the use of advanced econometric tools to find answers to these and other questions which are important to practitioners, policy-makers and academic economists. In addition, the book addresses more technical econometric considerations such as the importance of the choice between single-equation and system-wide approaches to modelling the exchange rate, and the reduced form versus structural equation problems. Readers will gain both a comprehensive overview of the way macroeconomists approach exchange rate modelling, and an understanding of how advanced techniques can help them explain and predict the behavior of this crucial economic variable.
Author: Stephany Griffith-Jones
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191589144
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 325
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Book Description
The currency crises that engulfed East Asian economies in 1997 and Mexico in 1994 - and their high development costs - raise a serious concern about the net benefits for developing countries of large flows of potentially reversible short-term international capital. Written by senior policy-makers and academics, the contributions to this volume examine in depth the macroeconomic and other policy dilemmas confronting public authorities in the emerging economies as they deal with short-term capital movements, especially in the period before the outbreak of these crises. The studies are based on comparative case studies of key emerging economies. Valuable insights are also derived from contrasts between the East Asian, Latin American, African, and European experiences, between the financial and real effects of financial flows, and between private and public responsibilities in managing financial markets. The great value of the chapters in this volume is that they analytically identify the weaknesses in both domestic and international capital market regimes. The recommendations derived from this analysis apply to the development of financial markets in developing countries, the monitoring and regulation of mutual funds in source countries, and the future development of international capital markets. They will make an important contribution both to the discussion of national policies and of a new international financial architechture.
Author: International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451937504
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 458
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Book Description
The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451974515
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 216
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Book Description
This paper analyzes some leading indicators of currency crises, and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning “signal” that a currency crisis may take place. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, and the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 9781589062733
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 130
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Book Description
Summarizes the for ward-looking analytical work program on macroeconomic issues related to the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper approach. The program is evolving through a process that began with a technical workshop; participants from low-income countries, donors, academia, and civil society drafted guidance on selected issues and identified priority research topics. Partners, policymakers, and economic scholars are encouraged to share their perspectives and findings through respective team leaders, whose e-mail addresses are provided. The publication also summarizes IMF analytical work, and contains a bibliography of nearly 1,000 papers.
Author: Gerardo della Paolera
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521822473
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 424
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Book Description
Table of contents
Author: Takuji Kinkyo
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317934822
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 233
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Book Description
With increased resilience in the financial systems, emerging Asian economies were less affected by the recent global financial crisis, recovering more quickly from the crisis than major advanced economies. Yet, Asian financial systems remain underdeveloped. More open and efficient financial systems continue to be a key priority for Asia’s development strategy. Emerging Asian economies need to tackle the new challenges to macroeconomic and financial stability posed by financial globalisation. This book identifies the key challenges to Asia’s financial development in an era of rapid financial globalisation and discusses their policy implications for financial reforms and regional cooperation in East Asia. Particular areas of focus include: the impact of financial globalisation on economic stability and inequality in East Asian economies; the progress of Asia’s regional financial cooperation and lessons from the recent European economic crisis; and the priority of financial reforms in individual Asian economies. Combining advanced econometric methods and in-depth case studies, this book provides rigorous and contextual analyses of the most critical issues for Asia’s financial development. It offers a comprehensive and useful guide for students, academics, and policymakers interested in the current state and future prospects of Asian financial systems.
Author: Mr.Ilan Goldfajn
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451942982
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 49
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Book Description
This paper creates an index of capital controls to analyze the determinants of capital flows to Brazil, accounting for the endogeneity of capital controls by considering a government that sets controls in response to capital flows. It finds that the government reacts strongly to capital flows by increasing controls on inflows during booms and relaxing them in moments of distress. The paper estimates a vector autoregression with capital flows, controls, and interest differentials. It shows that controls have been temporarily effective in altering levels and composition of capital flows but have had no sustained effects in the long run.
