Current Account Benchmarks for Turkey PDF Download
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Author:
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author:
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Oliver Röhn
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Author: Ayla Ogus Binatlı
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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In this paper, we analyze the Turkish current account between 1992 and 2004 within an intertemporal benchmark model. Increasingly larger current account deficits in the Turkish economy have caused a great level of discussion of the current account but it has mainly focused on the real exchange rate and short-term international competitiveness. However, changes in the fundamentals of the Turkish economy warrant a longer term approach in the analysis. This paper computes the optimal consumption smoothing current account using the intertemporal benchmark model (IBM) and tests for intertemporal solvency of the current account. We find consumption tilting dynamics are in effect. As expected of borrowing developing countries, Turkey tilts consumption to the present. We find support for one of the implications of the IBM, that the current account Granger-causes future changes in national cash flow as implied by the intertemporal benchmark model. However, we also find that the actual consumption smoothing current account is considerably more volatile than the optimal consumption smoothing current account suggesting that speculative forces have driven capital movements during the sample period. From the trends in data and the model and testable implications we believe that although Turkey breached the intertemporal solvency condition in the 1990s, this is not true for Turkey in the period following the 2001 crisis. Therefore, we conclude that changed fundamentals in Turkey have made the high current account deficits sustainable.
Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN: 9264127976
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 110
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OECD's 2012 survey of Turkey's economy examines recent economic developments, policies, and prospects and takes a more detailed look at real exchange rates and competitiveness and structural reforms and growth.
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 148435320X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 82
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Book Description
Growth rebounded sharply in 2017, helped by strong policy stimulus in the wake of the 2016 post-coup attempt slump and by favorable external conditions. Although expansionary policies were initially warranted, they are no longer appropriate as the economy is showing clear signs of overheating. Monetary policy appears too loose and its credibility is low; and on- and off-budget fiscal policies (including credit guarantee schemes and PPP activities) are expansionary and risk undermining Turkey’s hard-earned fiscal credibility. As a result, the economy faces internal and external imbalances: a positive output gap, inflation well above target, and a current account deficit of more than 5 percent of GDP. Meanwhile, political uncertainty and regional instability remain elevated, and the integration of the many refugees poses challenges.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 145183800X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 206
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Book Description
This paper reviews economic developments in Turkey during 1994–97. Real wages increased rapidly during 1989–93, dropped sharply in 1994–95, and have since recovered modestly. Real wage flexibility stems in part from the absence of widespread wage indexation, despite chronic high inflation. Rapid gross national product (GNP) growth, averaging 7.7 percent a year during 1995–97, raised GNP per capita to above US$3,000 in 1997. Most of this dynamism originated from the industrial and trade sectors. Industry grew by 10.4 percent in 1997, led by a strong performance of private manufacturing (14.2 percent).
Author: George Kopits
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Fiscal policy
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN: 9264207015
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 120
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Book Description
OECD's 2014 Economic Survey of Turkey examines recent economic developments, policies and prospects. The special chapter looks at structural change in the business sector.
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475574339
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 80
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Book Description
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that growth in Turkey has slowed following a strong performance in 2015. Investment is weak amid heightened uncertainty and a sharp deceleration of credit growth. Inflation has moderated but is still well above target. The current account deficit remains sizeable, as the decline in tourism offsets savings from low energy prices. Progress on structural reforms has been slow. Over the medium term, growth is projected to firm at about 3.5 percent. Inflation is expected to stay above target and the current account deficit to remain sizeable.
Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN: 9264006842
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 233
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Book Description
This OECD review of 2004 of Turkey's economy examines its recent strong recovery and prospects for growth. It recommends policies designed to strengthen confidence with a view to extending the recovery.
