Crop Modeling to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Spring Wheat Growth in Sub-Arctic Alaska PDF Download
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Author: Stephen K. Harvey
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Wheat
Languages : en
Pages : 160
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Book Description
In the sub-arctic region of Interior Alaska, warmer temperatures and a longer growing season caused by climate change could make spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) a more viable crop. In this study, a crop model was utilized to simulate the growth of spring wheat in future climate change scenarios RCP4.5 (medium-low emission) and RCP8.5 (high emission) of Fairbanks, Alaska. In order to fulfill such simulation, in 2018 high quality crop growth datasets were collected at the Fairbanks and Matanuska Valley Experiment Farms and along with historic variety trial data, the crop model was calibrated and validated for simulating days to maturity (emergence to physiological maturity) and yield of spring wheat in Fairbanks. In the Fairbanks 1989-2018 (baseline) climate, growing season (planting to physiological maturity) average temperature and total precipitation are 15.6° C and 122 mm, respectively. In RCP4.5 2020-2049 (2035s), 2050-2079 (2065s), and 2080-2099 (2090s) projected growing season average temperature and total precipitation are 16.7° C, 17.4° C, 17.8° C and 120 mm, 112 mm, 112 mm, respectively. In RCP8.5 2035s, 2065s, and 2090s projected growing season average temperature and total precipitation are 16.8° C, 18.5° C, 19.5° C and 120 mm, 113 mm, 117 mm, respectively. Using Ingal, an Alaskan spring wheat, the model simulated days to maturity and yield in baseline and projected climate scenarios of Fairbanks, Alaska. Baseline days to maturity were 69 and yield was 1991 kg ha-1. In RCP4.5 2035s, 2065s, and 2090s days to maturity decreased to 64, 62, 60 days, respectively, and yield decreased 2%, 6%, 8%, respectively. In RCP8.5 2035s, 2065s, and 2090s days to maturity decreased to 64, 58, 55 days, respectively, and yield decreased 1%, 3%, then increased 1%, respectively. Adaptation by cultivar modification to have a growing degree day requirement of 68 days to maturity in RCP4.5 2035s and RCP8.5 2035s resulted in increased yields of 4% and 5%, respectively. Climatic parameters of temperature and precipitation per growing season day are projected to become more favorable to the growth of spring wheat. However, precipitation deficit, an indicator of water stress was found to stay similar to the baseline climate. Without adaption, days to maturity and yield are projected to decrease. Selection and/or breeding of spring wheat varieties to maintain baseline days to maturity are a priority to materialize yield increases in the area of Fairbanks, Alaska.
Author: Stephen K. Harvey
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Wheat
Languages : en
Pages : 160
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Book Description
In the sub-arctic region of Interior Alaska, warmer temperatures and a longer growing season caused by climate change could make spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) a more viable crop. In this study, a crop model was utilized to simulate the growth of spring wheat in future climate change scenarios RCP4.5 (medium-low emission) and RCP8.5 (high emission) of Fairbanks, Alaska. In order to fulfill such simulation, in 2018 high quality crop growth datasets were collected at the Fairbanks and Matanuska Valley Experiment Farms and along with historic variety trial data, the crop model was calibrated and validated for simulating days to maturity (emergence to physiological maturity) and yield of spring wheat in Fairbanks. In the Fairbanks 1989-2018 (baseline) climate, growing season (planting to physiological maturity) average temperature and total precipitation are 15.6° C and 122 mm, respectively. In RCP4.5 2020-2049 (2035s), 2050-2079 (2065s), and 2080-2099 (2090s) projected growing season average temperature and total precipitation are 16.7° C, 17.4° C, 17.8° C and 120 mm, 112 mm, 112 mm, respectively. In RCP8.5 2035s, 2065s, and 2090s projected growing season average temperature and total precipitation are 16.8° C, 18.5° C, 19.5° C and 120 mm, 113 mm, 117 mm, respectively. Using Ingal, an Alaskan spring wheat, the model simulated days to maturity and yield in baseline and projected climate scenarios of Fairbanks, Alaska. Baseline days to maturity were 69 and yield was 1991 kg ha-1. In RCP4.5 2035s, 2065s, and 2090s days to maturity decreased to 64, 62, 60 days, respectively, and yield decreased 2%, 6%, 8%, respectively. In RCP8.5 2035s, 2065s, and 2090s days to maturity decreased to 64, 58, 55 days, respectively, and yield decreased 1%, 3%, then increased 1%, respectively. Adaptation by cultivar modification to have a growing degree day requirement of 68 days to maturity in RCP4.5 2035s and RCP8.5 2035s resulted in increased yields of 4% and 5%, respectively. Climatic parameters of temperature and precipitation per growing season day are projected to become more favorable to the growth of spring wheat. However, precipitation deficit, an indicator of water stress was found to stay similar to the baseline climate. Without adaption, days to maturity and yield are projected to decrease. Selection and/or breeding of spring wheat varieties to maintain baseline days to maturity are a priority to materialize yield increases in the area of Fairbanks, Alaska.
Author: Tina Karimi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 130
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Book Description
The results indicated that regional dryland wheat production will increase in the future, but with spatial variation and uncertainty related to future weather projections. Improvement in yield will provide opportunities for intensification of cropping systems and may lead to some reduction of fallow use. Total GHG emissions (nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide from reduced SOC stocks) had a decreasing trend while N2O emissions accounted for a larger portion of total GHG and the relative contribution had an increasing trend toward the 2070s since SOC losses were lower.
Author: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 0521865093
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 1053
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Book Description
The Arctic is now experiencing some of the most rapid and severe climate change on earth. Over the next 100 years, climate change is expected to accelerate, contributing to major physical, ecological, social, and economic changes, many of which have already begun. Changes in arctic climate will also affect the rest of the world through increased global warming and rising sea levels. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment was prepared by an international team of over 300 scientists, experts, and knowledgeable members of indigenous communities. The report has been thoroughly researched, is fully referenced, and provides the first comprehensive evaluation of arctic climate change, changes in ultraviolet radiation and their impacts for the region and for the world. It is illustrated in full color throughout. The results provided the scientific foundations for the ACIA synthesis report - Impacts of a Warming Arctic - published by Cambridge University Press in 2004.
Author: Alderman, P.D.
Publisher: CIMMYT
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 142
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Book Description
Author: Mona Maze
Publisher: Sudwestdeutscher Verlag Fur Hochschulschriften AG
ISBN: 9783838137476
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 196
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Book Description
The purpose of this study was to develop a new crop simulation model that simulated the crop biomass and yield of winter wheat from accumulated thermal units and simple partitioning rules under the different water and weather conditions in Bavaria, by using the least required input data from the users, which permits a large section of users to use the model. Therefore, the simulated crop model was designed to be used not only at the research sector, but also at the educational and applied sectors. The developed model estimated also the winter wheat yield under the expected future weather conditions, by using the weather models REMO, CLM and STARII, for estimating the expected crop behavior and distribution of winter wheat till 2100.
Author: Victor R. Scherer
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Agricultural estimating and reporting
Languages : en
Pages : 54
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Book Description
Author: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group II.
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521634557
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 532
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Book Description
Cambridge, UK : Cambridge University Press, 1998.
Author: John R. Porter
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Wheat
Languages : en
Pages : 318
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Book Description
Author: Jannat Chauhan
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Cultivation of spring wheat varieties has expanded into northern areas where it is an integral part of the crop rotations followed by the farmers. Around Thunder Bay, in Northern Ontario, spring wheat is typically grown from May until September. Crop success or failure depends on critical stages of growth in spring wheat that include emergence and tillering (in May-June), stem elongation (jointing) and booting (in June-July), spike emergence, heading (mid July), anthesis, grain filling (July-August), and kernel hardening or maturity (in August). Weather plays a vital role at each of these stages. Here, analysis is presented of the role of weather during seeding, tillering, jointing, grain-filling and kernel-hardening stages on the grain yield of spring wheat (cultivar Sable) from 2003-2017 at the Lakehead University Agricultural Research Station (LUARS), Thunder Bay. The analysis was conducted using the CROP-SIM CERES model and weather records at the Thunder Bay Airport (~10 km from LUARS). Simulation of future yields followed with projected climate according to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, a greenhouse gas trajectory adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The simulation predicted an average 26% lower grain yield by 2030. Sable grain yield was correlated to maximum (R2 = 0.69) and minimum (R2 = 0.46) temperature, but rainfall was not a factor that could predict wheat grain yield on its own. In the future, growers could experience a greater number of heat-stress days, and an increase in minimum temperatures during the jointing, grain filling and kernel-hardening stages that may limit future yields.
Author: Theodoros Mavromatis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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