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Author: H. Stuart Muench
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Artificial satellites
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
A previously developed advection forecast technique was modified to include data extracted from satellite imagery. A forecast experiment was then conducted using a data base gathered at AFGL during March 1984. This experiment was designed to test the usefulness of : (a) 3-hour forecast updates, (b) a biquadratic interpolation, and (c) cloud and precipitation information from satellite imagery. The test results confirmed earlier tests in that advection using space-averaged 500-mb winds produced the best overall scores and that in general the scores for 1 - 15 hours were better than persistence. The age of the advection flow (3, 6 or 9 hours old) did not affect forecast score, making updates useful. The biquadratic interpolation procedure produced better fits to observation than bilinear and appears to have improved forecasts. There was but a small benefit from adding satellite information to surface observations when forecasting cloud cover and hourly precipitation. the difficulties of trying to forecast even 30 to 50 percent of the time-change variance suggest that alternative approaches such as mesoscale modeling will be needed for accurate, reliable short-range forecasts.
Author: H. Stuart Muench
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Artificial satellites
Languages : en
Pages : 46
Get Book Here
Book Description
A previously developed advection forecast technique was modified to include data extracted from satellite imagery. A forecast experiment was then conducted using a data base gathered at AFGL during March 1984. This experiment was designed to test the usefulness of : (a) 3-hour forecast updates, (b) a biquadratic interpolation, and (c) cloud and precipitation information from satellite imagery. The test results confirmed earlier tests in that advection using space-averaged 500-mb winds produced the best overall scores and that in general the scores for 1 - 15 hours were better than persistence. The age of the advection flow (3, 6 or 9 hours old) did not affect forecast score, making updates useful. The biquadratic interpolation procedure produced better fits to observation than bilinear and appears to have improved forecasts. There was but a small benefit from adding satellite information to surface observations when forecasting cloud cover and hourly precipitation. the difficulties of trying to forecast even 30 to 50 percent of the time-change variance suggest that alternative approaches such as mesoscale modeling will be needed for accurate, reliable short-range forecasts.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Aeronautics
Languages : en
Pages : 320
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 502
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Environmental geology
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
Author: Ian T. Jolliffe
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470864419
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 257
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Book Description
This handy reference introduces the subject of forecastverification and provides a review of the basic concepts,discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity(predictand), then looks at some of the relationships betweeneconomic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the keyconcepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification thatreceive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most importanttopics in the field that are the subject of current research orthat would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life casestudies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the differenttechniques and an examination of their strengths andweaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leadingforecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and itsinterpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical andmathematical definition of commonly used terms
Author: United States. Environmental Science Services Administration
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 144
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Book Description
Author: Stéphane Vannitsem
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 012812248X
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 364
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Book Description
Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. - Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place - Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts - Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner
Author: Atmospheric Physics and Chemistry Laboratory (U.S.)
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Atmosphere
Languages : en
Pages : 382
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Book Description
Author: Jayantha Ananda Epaarachchi
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 131535604X
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 462
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Book Description
Due to the increased use of composite materials in aerospace, energy, automobile, and civil infrastructure applications, concern over composite material failures has grown, creating a need for smart composite structures that are able to self-diagnose and self-heal. Structural Health Monitoring Technologies and Next-Generation Smart Composite Structures provides valuable insight into cutting-edge advances in SHM, smart materials, and smart structures. Comprised of chapters authored by leading researchers in their respective fields, this edited book showcases exciting developments in general embedded sensor technologies, general sensor technologies, sensor response interrogation and data communication, damage matrix formulation, damage mechanics and analysis, smart materials and structures, and SHM in aerospace applications. Each chapter makes a significant contribution to the prevention of structural failures by describing methods that increase safety and reduce maintenance costs in a variety of SHM applications.
Author: Robert N. Lussier
Publisher: Human Kinetics
ISBN: 1718213220
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 546
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Book Description
Applied Sport Management Skills, Fourth Edition With HKPropel Access, takes a practical approach for teaching students how to become strong leaders and managers in the world of sport. Organized around the central management functions of planning, organizing, leading, and controlling, and addressing the Commission on Sport Management Accreditation (COSMA) Common Professional Component topics and North American Society for Sport Management (NASSM) guidelines, the fourth edition has been extensively updated with hundreds of new references and sport examples. The text employs a three-pronged approach for teaching management theory, putting theories into practice, and developing students’ management skills. Timely discussions and case studies address the impacts of COVID-19; Black Lives Matter initiatives; name, image, and likeness rules; women in executive positions; corporate social responsibility; data analytics; and more. While other texts focus on learning about sport management, Applied Sport Management Skills enables students to apply the principles while developing the skills to become effective sport managers. Interactive online learning tools available through HKPropel complement activities found in each chapter: Flash-card activities help students learn key terms. Self-assessments, which ask students to identify their strengths and weaknesses and plan to improve shortcomings, are now assignable, trackable, and automatically scored. Applying the Concepts quizzes, which challenge students to identify management concepts illustrated in various situations, are now trackable and automatically scored. Time-Out features, in which students apply management concepts to their personal sport and work experiences, are now assignable instructor-scored assessments. Case studies are now supplemented by 10-question automatically scored quizzes and include three open-ended discussion questions. Additional assignments available in downloadable documents for students to complete and submit to the instructor further facilitate the application of the concepts presented in the text: Sport Management Professionals @ Work activities provide a cohesive thread to keep students focused on how sport managers use the concepts on the job. Skill-Builder Exercises present real-world scenarios designed to help future managers handle day-to-day situations such as setting priorities, conducting job interviews, handling conflict, and coaching employees. Sports and Social Media Exercises introduce students to the role of social media in managing sport organizations. Students review popular social media sites such as Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn and visit sport websites. Game Plan for Starting a Sport Business features ask students to perform managerial tasks such as developing an organization structure and brainstorming ideas for leading employees. With Applied Sport Management Skills, students will be primed for an exciting career in sport management by gaining a thorough understanding of management theories and developing the acumen to apply them. Note: A code for accessing HKPropel is not included with this ebook but may be purchased separately.
