Comparison of a Conceptual Model and Objective Indicators of Extratropical Transition in the Western North Pacific

Comparison of a Conceptual Model and Objective Indicators of Extratropical Transition in the Western North Pacific PDF Author: Gregory D. Fox
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781423517115
Category : Cyclones
Languages : en
Pages : 99

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Book Description
The primary purpose of this research is to provide guidance to forecasters from the Joint (Air Force/Navy) Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbor to use in differentiating between the stages of extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs). Not only is ET relevant to the Department of Defense, since JTWC stops providing TC warnings once they have undergone ET, but it is also applicable to the meteorological community since there currently "is no commonly accepted definition of ET" (Jones et al 2003). This research compares the results of a conceptual model of ET using subjective satellite analysis with the results of objective indicators based on Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) model analyses. The ultimate goal is to find a way to reduce the negative impact of incorrect TC forecasting by providing tools which are more objective in defining stages of ET. This work discusses the birth, growth, and death of TCs by describing what energy sources are necessary for their growth and dissipation. Recent studies provide a conceptual model of ET with definitions of two stages and ways to use satellite analysis to identify them (Klein et al. 2000). While this conceptual model was being analyzed with data from the western North Pacific Ocean, TCs were also being analyzed using data from the Atlantic Ocean (Hart and Evans 2001). The research from the Atlantic led to the exploitation of objective indicators in a hodograph-like display (Evans and Hart 2003).

Comparison of a Conceptual Model and Objective Indicators of Extratropical Transition in the Western North Pacific

Comparison of a Conceptual Model and Objective Indicators of Extratropical Transition in the Western North Pacific PDF Author: Gregory D. Fox
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781423517115
Category : Cyclones
Languages : en
Pages : 99

Get Book Here

Book Description
The primary purpose of this research is to provide guidance to forecasters from the Joint (Air Force/Navy) Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbor to use in differentiating between the stages of extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs). Not only is ET relevant to the Department of Defense, since JTWC stops providing TC warnings once they have undergone ET, but it is also applicable to the meteorological community since there currently "is no commonly accepted definition of ET" (Jones et al 2003). This research compares the results of a conceptual model of ET using subjective satellite analysis with the results of objective indicators based on Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) model analyses. The ultimate goal is to find a way to reduce the negative impact of incorrect TC forecasting by providing tools which are more objective in defining stages of ET. This work discusses the birth, growth, and death of TCs by describing what energy sources are necessary for their growth and dissipation. Recent studies provide a conceptual model of ET with definitions of two stages and ways to use satellite analysis to identify them (Klein et al. 2000). While this conceptual model was being analyzed with data from the western North Pacific Ocean, TCs were also being analyzed using data from the Atlantic Ocean (Hart and Evans 2001). The research from the Atlantic led to the exploitation of objective indicators in a hodograph-like display (Evans and Hart 2003).

24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology PDF Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Hurricanes
Languages : en
Pages : 880

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Book Description


Atmospheric Rivers

Atmospheric Rivers PDF Author: F. Martin Ralph
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030289060
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 284

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Book Description
This book is the standard reference based on roughly 20 years of research on atmospheric rivers, emphasizing progress made on key research and applications questions and remaining knowledge gaps. The book presents the history of atmospheric-rivers research, the current state of scientific knowledge, tools, and policy-relevant (science-informed) problems that lend themselves to real-world application of the research—and how the topic fits into larger national and global contexts. This book is written by a global team of authors who have conducted and published the majority of critical research on atmospheric rivers over the past years. The book is intended to benefit practitioners in the fields of meteorology, hydrology and related disciplines, including students as well as senior researchers.

Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change

Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change PDF Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309380979
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 187

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Book Description
As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.

Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability PDF Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 030915183X
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 192

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Book Description
More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.

The Regional Impacts of Climate Change

The Regional Impacts of Climate Change PDF Author: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group II.
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521634557
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 532

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Book Description
Cambridge, UK : Cambridge University Press, 1998.

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation PDF Author: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107025060
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 593

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Book Description
Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. This Special Report explores the social as well as physical dimensions of weather- and climate-related disasters, considering opportunities for managing risks at local to international scales. SREX was approved and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November 2011 in Kampala, Uganda.

Tropical Meteorology

Tropical Meteorology PDF Author: T.N. Krishnamurti
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461474094
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 427

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Book Description
This book is designed as an introductory course in Tropical Meteorology for the graduate or advanced level undergraduate student. The material within can be covered in a one-semester course program. The text starts from the global scale-view of the Tropics, addressing the zonally symmetric and asymmetric features of the tropical circulation. It then goes on to progressively smaller spatial and time scales – from the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Asian Monsoon, down to tropical waves, hurricanes, sea breezes, and tropical squall lines. The emphasis in most chapters is on the observational aspects of the phenomenon in question, the theories regarding its nature and maintenance, and the approaches to its numerical modeling. The concept of scale interactions is also presented as a way of gaining insight into the generation and redistribution of energy for the maintenance of oscillations of a variety of spatial and temporal scales.

The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate PDF Author: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9781009157971
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 755

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Book Description
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.

The Ocean Economy in 2030

The Ocean Economy in 2030 PDF Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN: 9264251723
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 256

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Book Description
This report explores the growth prospects for the ocean economy, its capacity for future employment creation and innovation, and its role in addressing global challenges. Special attention is devoted to the emerging ocean-based industries.