Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Asset Markets PDF Download
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Author: Stefan Palan
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9783642021466
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 171
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Book Description
This book describes a laboratory experiment designed to test the causes and properties of bubbles in financial markets and explores the question whether it is possible to design markets which avoid such bubbles and crashes. In the experiment, subjects were given the opportunity to trade in a stock market modeled after the seminal work of Smith et al. (1988). To account for the increasing importance of online betting sites, subjects were also allowed to trade in a digital option market. The outcomes shed new light on how subjects form and update their expectations, placing special emphasis on the bounded rationality of investors. Various analytical bubble measures found in the literature are collected, calculated, classified and presented for the first time. The very interesting new bubble measures "Dispersion Ratio", "Overpriced Transactions" and "Underpriced Transactions" are developed, making the book an important step towards the research goal of preventing bubbles and crashes in financial markets.
Author: Paul Bourgine
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540247084
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 479
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Book Description
The social sciences study knowing subjects and their interactions. A "cog nitive turn", based on cognitive science, has the potential to enrich these sciences considerably. Cognitive economics belongs within this movement of the social sciences. It aims to take into account the cognitive processes of individuals in economic theory, both on the level of the agent and on the level of their dynamic interactions and the resulting collective phenomena. This is an ambitious research programme that aims to link two levels of com plexity: the level of cognitive phenomena as studied and tested by cognitive science, and the level of collective phenomena produced by the economic in teractions between agents. Such an objective requires cooperation, not only between economists and cognitive scientists but also with mathematicians, physicists and computer scientists, in order to renew, study and simulate models of dynamical systems involving economic agents and their cognitive mechanisms. The hard core of classical economics is the General Equilibrium Theory, based on the optimising rationality of the agent and on static concepts of equilibrium, following a point of view systemised in the framework of Game Theory. The agent is considered "rational" if everything takes place as if he was maximising a function representing his preferences, his utility function.
Author: Stefan Palan
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9783642021466
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 171
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book describes a laboratory experiment designed to test the causes and properties of bubbles in financial markets and explores the question whether it is possible to design markets which avoid such bubbles and crashes. In the experiment, subjects were given the opportunity to trade in a stock market modeled after the seminal work of Smith et al. (1988). To account for the increasing importance of online betting sites, subjects were also allowed to trade in a digital option market. The outcomes shed new light on how subjects form and update their expectations, placing special emphasis on the bounded rationality of investors. Various analytical bubble measures found in the literature are collected, calculated, classified and presented for the first time. The very interesting new bubble measures "Dispersion Ratio", "Overpriced Transactions" and "Underpriced Transactions" are developed, making the book an important step towards the research goal of preventing bubbles and crashes in financial markets.
Author: Shane Parrish
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 0593719972
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 209
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Book Description
Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.
Author: Leo Musk
Publisher: Publifye AS
ISBN: 8233934291
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 110
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Book Description
""Economic Bubbles"" offers a compelling exploration of one of the most intriguing and disruptive phenomena in finance and economics. This comprehensive book examines the anatomy of economic bubbles, their historical significance, and their impact on modern markets, providing crucial insights for investors, policymakers, and anyone interested in the global economy. By delving into the patterns and mechanisms behind bubbles, readers gain a deeper understanding of market behavior and potential economic instability. The book argues that economic bubbles are not mere anomalies but recurring patterns deeply rooted in human behavior and market structures. It guides readers through a logical progression, starting with the definition and characteristics of bubbles, then exploring historical examples like the Dutch Tulip Mania, and moving on to modern instances such as the Dot-com bubble. Drawing on historical records, economic data, and insights from behavioral economics, the book offers a multifaceted analysis of bubble formation and collapse. What sets ""Economic Bubbles"" apart is its holistic approach, considering the interplay of social, psychological, and technological forces that contribute to these phenomena. Written in an accessible yet authoritative style, it balances academic rigor with engaging narratives, making complex concepts understandable for both finance professionals and general readers. By providing a framework for understanding and potentially anticipating future market dynamics, this book equips readers with valuable knowledge to navigate the complex world of finance and economics.
Author: Jeffrey Funk
Publisher: Harriman House Limited
ISBN: 1804090891
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 233
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Book Description
New technologies are an investment minefield. Putting money behind them means taking a risk on unproven ventures, often from inexperienced (and potentially unscrupulous) developers. While some will lead the investor to fantastic gains, many others turn out to be mere bubbles – a flimsy veneer of excitement and hype with little profitable at the core. But ignoring these technologies can be even worse, as this can mean failing to capitalise on the next great step in innovation. From cryptocurrencies, blockchain, the metaverse, Web3, and NFTs, to self-driving vehicles, delivery drones, solid state batteries, eVTOLs, and more, technology bubbles have been inflating and popping for many years. Each time a bubble pops, tens if not hundreds of billions of investment dollars disappear with them.
Unicorns, Hype, and Bubbles arms the reader with the tools required to differentiate between bubbles and genuine, sustainable technological revolutionaries. Under the expert tutelage of Jeffrey Funk, you will learn: • The economics of modern businesses and how they lead to bubbles forming. • How to assess new technologies to sift viable investments from hype-driven bubbles. • That you can be a far better judge of new technologies than so-called “industry experts”. • How to identify exciting new opportunities in a world of money-losing startups. And much more.
Author: Nolan McCarty
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400846390
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 369
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Book Description
How governmental failure led to the 2008 financial crisis—and what needs to be done to avoid another similar event Behind every financial crisis lurks a "political bubble"—policy biases that foster market behaviors leading to financial instability. Rather than tilting against risky behavior, political bubbles—arising from a potent combination of beliefs, institutions, and interests—aid, abet, and amplify risk. Demonstrating how political bubbles helped create the real estate-generated financial bubble and the 2008 financial crisis, this book argues that similar government oversights in the aftermath of the crisis undermined Washington's response to the "popped" financial bubble, and shows how such patterns have occurred repeatedly throughout US history. The authors show that just as financial bubbles are an unfortunate mix of mistaken beliefs, market imperfections, and greed, political bubbles are the product of rigid ideologies, unresponsive and ineffective government institutions, and special interests. Financial market innovations—including adjustable-rate mortgages, mortgage-backed securities, and credit default swaps—become subject to legislated leniency and regulatory failure, increasing hazardous practices. The authors shed important light on the politics that blinds regulators to the economic weaknesses that create the conditions for economic bubbles and recommend simple, focused rules that should help avoid such crises in the future. The first full accounting of how politics produces financial ruptures, Political Bubbles offers timely lessons that all sectors would do well to heed.
Author: Brian H. Ross
Publisher: Gulf Professional Publishing
ISBN: 9780125433426
Category : Education
Languages : en
Pages : 368
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Book Description
Use of visual information is used to augment our knowledge, decide on our actions, and keep track of our environment. Even with eyes closed, people can remember visual and spatial representations, manipulate them, and make decisions about them. The chapters in Volume 42 of Psychology of Learning and Motivation discuss the ways cognition interacts with visual processes and visual representations, with coverage of figure-ground assignment, spatial and visual working memory, object identification and visual search, spatial navigation, and visual attention.
Author: Lorenzo Magnani
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030933296
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 170
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Book Description
The book analyses the concept of discoverability, and some current epistemological problems related to it, with a special attention to science. It shows that discoverability is closely related to the sustainability of human creativity in an "eco-cognitive" perspective. Advocating the need of an integral ecology and leveraging the important concept of abduction, it demonstrates that an ecology of human creativity should have priority over other needs, i.e that the first ecological duty is to protect and sustain discoverability. Enhancing discoverability will protect human creativity, and it is exactly human creativity, a form of innovative abductive cognition, that can promote the implementation of the other kinds of ecology. The author guides readers through a comprehensive discussion on the concept of discoverability, eco-cognitive situatedness, and eco-cognitive openness and closure alike. By describing some key real-world examples, he highlights the main challenges that are currently posed to human creativity and epistemic integrity. He also describes future eco-cognitive settings, discussing the problem of overcomputationalism and suggesting a reinterpretation of the role of human knowledge. Overall, this book fills an important gap in the literature on the nexus abduction – creativity – discovery, offering a source of inspiration to philosophers, epistemologists, and cognitive scientists. Yet, it also addresses researchers in other disciplines interested in the problems of scientific discovery and epistemic integrity of research.
Author: Lorenzo Magnani
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642219721
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 347
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Book Description
This volume sets out to give a philosophical “applied” account of violence, engaged with both empirical and theoretical debates in other disciplines such as cognitive science, sociology, psychiatry, anthropology, political theory, evolutionary biology, and theology. The book’s primary thesis is that violence is inescapably intertwined with morality and typically enacted for “moral” reasons. To show this, the book compellingly demonstrates how morality operates to trigger and justify violence and how people, in their violent behaviors, can engage and disengage with discrete moralities. The author’s fundamental account of language, and in particular its normative aspects, is particularly insightful as regards extending the range of what is to be understood as violence beyond the domain of physical harm. By employing concepts such as “coalition enforcement”, “moral bubbles”, “cognitive niches”, “overmoralization”, “military intelligence” and so on, the book aims to spell out how perpetrators and victims of violence systematically disagree about the very nature of violence. The author’s original claim is that disagreement can be understood naturalistically, described by an account of morality informed by evolutionary perspectives as well. This book might help us come to terms with the fact that we are intrinsically “violent beings”. To acknowledge this condition, and our stupefying capacity to inflict harm, is a responsibility we must face up to: such understanding could ultimately be of help in order to achieve a safer ownership of our destinies, by individuating and reinforcing those cognitive firewalls that would prevent violence from always escalating and overflowing.
Author: Axel Bruns
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1509536469
Category : Language Arts & Disciplines
Languages : en
Pages : 83
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Book Description
There has been much concern over the impact of partisan echo chambers and filter bubbles on public debate. Is this concern justified, or is it distracting us from more serious issues? Axel Bruns argues that the influence of echo chambers and filter bubbles has been severely overstated, and results from a broader moral panic about the role of online and social media in society. Our focus on these concepts, and the widespread tendency to blame platforms and their algorithms for political disruptions, obscure far more serious issues pertaining to the rise of populism and hyperpolarisation in democracies. Evaluating the evidence for and against echo chambers and filter bubbles, Bruns offers a persuasive argument for why we should shift our focus to more important problems. This timely book is essential reading for students and scholars, as well as anyone concerned about challenges to public debate and the democratic process.
