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Author: Stephen Zunes
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781943271115
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 102
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Book Description
This monograph presents in-depth case studies and analysis intended to improve our understanding of the strategic utility of civil resistance against military takeovers; the nature of civil resistance mobilization against coups; and the role of civil resistance against coups in countries; and subsequent democratization efforts (or failure thereof).
Author: Stephen Zunes
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781943271115
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 102
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Book Description
This monograph presents in-depth case studies and analysis intended to improve our understanding of the strategic utility of civil resistance against military takeovers; the nature of civil resistance mobilization against coups; and the role of civil resistance against coups in countries; and subsequent democratization efforts (or failure thereof).
Author: Gene Sharp
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781880813119
Category : Civilian-based defense
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Book Description
Author: Erica De Bruin
Publisher: Cornell University Press
ISBN: 1501751921
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 155
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Book Description
In this lively and provocative book, Erica De Bruin looks at the threats that rulers face from their own armed forces. Can they make their regimes impervious to coups? How to Prevent Coups d'État shows that how leaders organize their coercive institutions has a profound effect on the survival of their regimes. When rulers use presidential guards, militarized police, and militia to counterbalance the regular military, efforts to oust them from power via coups d'état are less likely to succeed. Even as counterbalancing helps to prevent successful interventions, however, the resentment that it generates within the regular military can provoke new coup attempts. And because counterbalancing changes how soldiers and police perceive the costs and benefits of a successful overthrow, it can create incentives for protracted fighting that result in the escalation of a coup into full-blown civil war. Drawing on an original dataset of state security forces in 110 countries over a span of fifty years, as well as case studies of coup attempts in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East, De Bruin sheds light on how counterbalancing affects regime survival. Understanding the dynamics of counterbalancing, she shows, can help analysts predict when coups will occur, whether they will succeed, and how violent they are likely to be. The arguments and evidence in this book suggest that while counterbalancing may prevent successful coups, it is a risky strategy to pursue—and one that may weaken regimes in the long term.
Author: Stephen Zunes
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781943271429
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
The 2019 Sudanese revolution constitutes one of the world's greatest stories of the power of nonviolent resistance. A country which had suffered greatly from decades of horrific statesanctioned violence, misogynistic laws, and longstanding religious, ethnic, and regional divisions, an unstoppable movement emerged out of a population systematically disempowered through decades of dictatorship. Millions of Sudanese took to the streets during waves of protests over an eight-month period beginning in December 2018 in a triumph not just of the human spirit, but of some of the most brilliant strategic thinking by any social movement in history. This report reviews the chronology of the resistance struggle, the critical role of nonviolent discipline, other factors contributing to the movement's success, the subsequent political situation, and lessons to be learned. In overcoming such formidable obstacles, the nonviolent pro-democracy struggle in Sudan serves as an inspiration for the entire world.
Author: Naunihal Singh
Publisher: JHU Press
ISBN: 142141337X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 265
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Book Description
How coups happen and why half of them fail. While coups drive a majority of regime changes and are responsible for the overthrow of many democratic governments, there has been very little empirical work on the subject. Seizing Power develops a new theory of coup dynamics and outcomes, drawing on 300 hours of interviews with coup participants and an original dataset of 471 coup attempts worldwide from 1950 to 2000. Naunihal Singh delivers a concise and empirical evaluation, arguing that understanding the dynamics of military factions is essential to predicting the success or failure of coups. Singh draws on an aspect of game theory known as a coordination game to explain coup dynamics. He finds a strong correlation between successful coups and the ability of military actors to project control and the inevitability of success. Examining Ghana’s multiple coups and the 1991 coup attempt in the USSR, Singh shows how military actors project an image of impending victory that is often more powerful than the reality on the ground. In addition, Singh also identifies three distinct types of coup dynamics, each with a different probability of success, based on where within the organization each coup originated: coups from top military officers, coups from the middle ranks, and mutinous coups from low-level soldiers.
Author: Jonathan C. Pinckney
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0190097337
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 265
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Book Description
Peaceful protest is a strong driver for democratization across the globe. Yet, it doesn't always lead to democratic transition, as seen in the Arab Spring revolutions in Egypt or Yemen. Why do some nonviolent transitions end in democracy while others do not? In From Dissent to Democracy, Jonathan Pinckney systematically examines transitions initiated by nonviolent resistance campaigns and argues that two key factors explain whether or not democracy will follow such efforts. First, a movement must sustain high levels of social mobilization. Second, it must direct that mobilization away from revolutionary "maximalist" goals and tactics and towards support for new institutions. Pinckney tests his theory by presenting a global statistical analysis of all political transitions from 1945-2011 and three case studies from Nepal, Zambia, and Brazil. Original and empirically rigorous, this book provides new insights into the intersection of democratization and nonviolent resistance and gives actionable recommendations for how to encourage democratic transitions.
Author: Hardy Merriman
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781943271313
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Jonathan Pinckney
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781943271153
Category : Democratization
Languages : en
Pages : 102
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Book Description
Several studies show that nonviolent revolutions are generally a more positive force for democratization than violent revolutions and top-down political transitions. However, many nonviolent revolutions, such as the Arab Spring revolution in Egypt, do not seem to fit this pattern. This study takes on this puzzle and reveals that the answer lies in large part in the actions of civil society prior to and during transition. Democracy is most likely when activists can keep their social bases mobilized for positive political change while directing that mobilization toward building new political institutions. The study first lays out what we already know about the connections between nonviolent resistance and democratization. It then presents new statistical evidence that nonviolent resistance has a positive e ect on democratization independently of other conditions. Additionally, in-depth case studies of Nepal, Zambia, and Brazil—woven throughout this monograph—demonstrate that the positive e ect of civil resistance on democratic transition requires continued civic mobilization and a move away from radical, all-or-nothing struggles toward more regular, institutionalized politics. The study concludes with concrete takeaways on how to achieve these changes, designed for civil resistance thinkers, activists, and external actors interested in supporting nonviolent movements.
Author: Ingrid Jordt
Publisher: ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute
ISBN: 9814951749
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
On 1 February 2021, under the command of General Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar’s military initiated a coup, apparently drawing to a close Myanmar’s ten-year experiment with democratic rule. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint were arrested along with other elected officials. Mass protests against the coup ensued, led by Gen Z youths who shaped a values-based democratic revolutionary movement that in character is anti-military regime, anti-China influence, anti-authoritarian, anti-racist, and anti-sexist. Women and minorities have been at the forefront, organizing protests, shaping campaigns, and engaging sectors of society that in the past had been relegated to the periphery of national politics. The protests were broadcast to local and international audiences through social media. Simultaneously, a civil disobedience movement (CDM) arose in the shape of a massive strike mostly led by civil servants. CDM is non-violent and acephalous, a broad “society against the state” movement too large and diffuse for the military to target and dismantle. Semi-autonomous administrative zones in the name of Pa-a-pha or civil administrative organizations emerged out of spontaneously organized neighbourhood watches at the ward and village levels, effectively forming a parallel governance system to the military state. Anti-coup protests moved decisively away from calls for the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and other elected political leaders, or for a return to democracy under the 2008 constitution. Instead, it evolved towards greater inclusivity of all Myanmar peoples in pursuit of a more robust federal democracy. A group of fifteen elected parliamentarians, representing the ideals of Gen Z youths, formed a shadow government called the Committee Representing the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH) on 5 February 2021. On 1 March the CRPH declared the military governing body, the State Administrative Council (SAC), a “terrorist group”, and on 31 March, it declared the military’s 2008 constitution abolished. Gen Z’s protests have accomplished what has been elusive to prior generations of anti-regime movements and uprisings. They have severed the Bamar Buddhist nationalist narrative that has gripped state society relations and the military’s ideological control over the political landscape, substituting for it an inclusive democratic ideology.
Author: Gene Sharp
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781880813416
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 210
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Book Description
