Author: William Bratton
Publisher: Marshall Cavendish International Asia Pte Ltd
ISBN: 9814928968
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 184
Get Book Here
Book Description
China’s rise will be long-term punitive for the rest of Asia. Across all aspects of Asian geopolitics and economics, China’s ascendency to regional hegemonic status will result in the decline of its neighbours’ political independence, economic dynamism and future growth potential. Any short-term benefits of China’s growth, such as increased trade, will be transitory. The longer-term implications of its emergence as the regional hegemon will be greater economic and financial dependencies and vulnerabilities, the large-scale shift of business activity to within its boundaries and its increasing geopolitical influence across the region. The challenge for China’s neighbours is how to respond to these evolving dynamics, especially as their strategic options are increasingly limited and few of the potential future scenarios are long-term positive. China’s rise, therefore, be Asia’s decline.
Author: Robert G. Sutter
Publisher: East-West Center
ISBN:
Category : Asia
Languages : en
Pages : 96
Get Book Here
Book Description
Executive Summary:Foreign policy makers in the United States should not be misled by prevailing media and scholarly assessments that exaggerate China?s influence in Asia relative to that of the United States. In particular, it would be a mistake for the Bush administration to give in to recent congressional, media, and interest group pressures that employ overstated assessments of China?s increasing power in order to push for tough U.S. government policies to confront and compete with China. This study shows that overt U.S. competition with China for influence is unwelcome in Asia, counterproductive for U.S. interests in the region, and unwarranted given the limited challenge posed by China?s rise. Prevailing assessments and commentaries about China?s rise in Asia are unbalanced, emphasizing China?s strengths and the United States? weaknesses. With few exceptions, they give inadequate attention to Chinese weaknesses and U.S. strengths. This study demonstrates that China?s recent success in Asia rests heavily on a fairly narrow foundation?that is, generally adroit Chinese diplomacy and intra-Asian trade that is less significant than the reported figures of annual trade between China and its neighbors would suggest. China?s willingness and ability to lead in Asia is undermined notably by many domestic preoccupations, nationalistic ambitions at odds with Asian neighbors, and economic complications posed by China?s rise as many countries in Asia are left further behind.Moreover, Chinese leaders and officials continue to follow policies that do not require either China or its neighboring countries to make significant changes, sacrifices, or commitments for one another that they would not ordinarily make. Thus, China?s Asian approach focuses on ?easy? things?the ?low-hanging fruit??and avoids costly commitments or major risk. By contrast, U.S. leadership in Asia, though challenged by unpopular policies in Southwest Asia and Korea, along with insufficient attention in dealing with Asian governments, remains strong in undertaking responsibilities and providing needed security and economic benefits to Asian states. The United States continues to show influence in Asia in concrete ways, notably by influencing Asian governments to do things they would not be inclined to do.Predictions of an emerging order in Asia led by a rising China that will marginalize the United States illustrate how far many of the predominate, unbalanced media and scholarly assessments have gone. They reflect a poor understanding of the ambitions of Asian governments, the resilience of U.S. power and leadership, and the actual status of China?s influence relative to that of the United States in Asian states around China?s periphery. To some extent, a rising China that generally accommodates its neighbors benefits from the fluid post-Cold War Asian order, as various Asian governments seek to broaden international options with various powers in a continuing round of hedging and maneuvering for advantage. But as China rises in influence in Asia, this study shows that these same neighboring governments hedge and maneuver against possible Chinese dominance. In this process, they quietly seek closer ties with one another and particularly with the region?s dominant power, the United States. America?s advantages in this situation are strong. The United States has a proven record of being able and willing to commit significant resources and prestige to protect allies and friends. The United States is very powerful?a superpower?but it is far away from Asia and has none of the territorial and few of the other ambitions that characterize Asian powers. Thus it is less distrusted by Asian governments in comparison with how these governments view one another, including China. As a result, most Asian governments?including China and all the major powers in Asia?give higher priority to relations with the United States than to relations with any power in Asia.In addition to being Asia?s economic partner of choice and acknowledged security guarantor, the United States has a leadership position in Asia that rests on a determined U.S. administration prepared to confront adversaries and opponents. This position gives pause to Asian governments seeking to challenge or displace the United States. The analysis in this monograph demonstrates that even hard-line Chinese critics of U.S. ?hegemony? in Asian and world affairs have been compelled in recent years to adopt alow posture in dealings with the United States, choosing to wait as China builds comprehensive national power over the coming decades.Chinese leaders are often frustrated by U.S. policies and power, and desirous over the long term to see their periphery free of constricting U.S. great power involvement. However, they show little sign of deviating from efforts to expand influence in selected ways that tend to avoid directly challenging the United States. Thus, for the most part, China?s rise in Asia does not come at the expense of U.S. interests and is not a part of a zerosum game resulting in the automatic decline of U.S. influence.To enhance its position in Asia, Washington should focus on repairing negative features of recent U.S. policy in Asia related to the fallout of its actions in Iraq, the Middle East, and Korea; U.S. unilateralism in international politics; and inattentiveness to the concerns of Asian governments over economic development, nation building, and multilateral cooperation. This recommendation requires adjustments, not a wholesale revamping of U.S. policies. Backed by continued, careful management of U.S. security commitments and economic relations with regional governments, they will enhance the leading role of the United States in Asian affairs. The prevailing tendency of Asian governments to hedge in the post- Cold War environment seems likely to continue to pose challenges for U.S. management of alliance and other relations with Asian governments seeking more independence and freedom of action, inclining some to seek closer ties with China, among others. Policymakers in the United States should not overreact to such maneuvers, recognizing that such hedging continues to provide a prominent role for the United States as the region?s well-recognized security stabilizer and economic partner of choice. In particular, Chinese government leaders found that their overt efforts in the late 1990s to compel Asian governments to choose between a rising China and the United States failed in the face of Asian governments? long unwillingness to do so. The government should learn from this experience in seeking to advance its leadership in Asia without the overt competition with China that would try to force Asian governments to make such a choice, probably with negative implications for U.S. leadership in Asia.
Author: Andrew Scobell
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 1977404200
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 155
Get Book Here
Book Description
To explore what extended competition between the United States and China might entail out to 2050, the authors of this report identified and characterized China’s grand strategy, analyzed its component national strategies (diplomacy, economics, science and technology, and military affairs), and assessed how successful China might be at implementing these over the next three decades.
Author: Robert S. Ross
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1000204693
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 180
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book examines the power transition between the US and China, and the implications for Europe and Asia in a new era of uncertainty. The volume addresses the impact that the rise of China has on the United States, Europe, transatlantic relations, and East Asia. China is seeking to use its enhanced power position to promote new ambitions; the United States is adjusting to a new superpower rivalry; and the power shift from the West to the East is resulting in a more peripheral role for Europe in world affairs. Featuring essays by prominent Chinese and international experts, the book examines the US–China rivalry, the changing international system, grand strategies and geopolitics, foreign policy, geo-economics and institutions, and military and technological developments. The chapters examine how strategic, security, and military considerations in this triangular relationship are gradually undermining trade and economics, reversing the era of globalization, and contributing to the breakdown of the US-led liberal order and institutions that will be difficult to rebuild. The volume also examines whether the adversarial antagonism in US–China relations, the tension in transatlantic ties, and the increasing rivalry in Europe–China relations are primarily resulting from leaders’ ambitions or structural power shifts. This book will be of much interest to students of Asian security, US foreign policy, European politics, and International Relations in general.
Author: Rush Doshi
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0197527876
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 433
Get Book Here
Book Description
For more than a century, no US adversary or coalition of adversaries - not Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, or the Soviet Union - has ever reached sixty percent of US GDP. China is the sole exception, and it is fast emerging into a global superpower that could rival, if not eclipse, the United States. What does China want, does it have a grand strategy to achieve it, and what should the United States do about it? In The Long Game, Rush Doshi draws from a rich base of Chinese primary sources, including decades worth of party documents, leaked materials, memoirs by party leaders, and a careful analysis of China's conduct to provide a history of China's grand strategy since the end of the Cold War. Taking readers behind the Party's closed doors, he uncovers Beijing's long, methodical game to displace America from its hegemonic position in both the East Asia regional and global orders through three sequential "strategies of displacement." Beginning in the 1980s, China focused for two decades on "hiding capabilities and biding time." After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, it became more assertive regionally, following a policy of "actively accomplishing something." Finally, in the aftermath populist elections of 2016, China shifted to an even more aggressive strategy for undermining US hegemony, adopting the phrase "great changes unseen in century." After charting how China's long game has evolved, Doshi offers a comprehensive yet asymmetric plan for an effective US response. Ironically, his proposed approach takes a page from Beijing's own strategic playbook to undermine China's ambitions and strengthen American order without competing dollar-for-dollar, ship-for-ship, or loan-for-loan.
Author: Desmond Ball
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1000536270
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 110
Get Book Here
Book Description
Intensifying geopolitical rivalries, rising defence spending and the proliferation of the latest military technology across Asia suggest that the region is set for a prolonged period of strategic contestation. None of the three competing visions for the future of Asian order – a US-led ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’, a Chinese-centred order, or the ASEAN-inspired ‘Indo-Pacific Outlook’ – is likely to prevail in the short to medium term. In the absence of a new framework, the risk of open conflict is heightened, and along with it the need for effective mechanisms to maintain peace and stability. As Asia’s leaders seek to rebuild their economies and societies in the wake of COVID-19, they would do well to reflect upon the lessons offered by the pandemic and their applicability in the strategic realm. The societies that have navigated the crisis most effectively have been able to do so by putting in place stringent protective measures. Crisis-management and -avoidance mechanisms – and even, in the longer term, wider arms control – can be seen as the strategic equivalent of such measures, and as such they should be pursued with urgency in Asia to reduce the risks of an even greater calamity.
Author: Robert G. Sutter
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
ISBN: 0742573214
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 314
Get Book Here
Book Description
China's rapid military and economic growth has fuelled a steady stream of analysis and debate about the PRC's motivations and objectives regarding the United States. Yet until now, there has not been a sustained, single-authored assessment in English of China's expanding influence in Asia in the post-Cold War period. Respected analyst Robert G. Sutter draws on his extensive experience in the region to explore the current debate on China's rise and its meaning for U.S. interests by examining in detail China's current and historical relations with the key countries of Asia. He finds a range of motivations underlying China's recent initiatives. Some incline Chinese policy to be cooperative with the United States, others to be competitive and confrontational. Sutter's nuanced study shows that U.S. power and influence continue to dominate Asia and play a critical role in determining China's cooperative or confrontational approach. He argues that the Bush administration's policies of firmness and cooperation have encouraged China to stay on a generally constructive track in the region.
Author: Edward Schatz
Publisher: Stanford University Press
ISBN: 1503614336
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 259
Get Book Here
Book Description
Negative views of the United States abound, but we know too little about how such views affect politics. Drawing on careful research on post-Soviet Central Asia, Edward Schatz argues that anti-Americanism is best seen not as a rising tide that swamps or as a conflagration that overwhelms. Rather, "America" is a symbolic resource that resides quietly in the mundane but always has potential value for social and political mobilizers. Using a wide range of evidence and a novel analytic framework, Schatz considers how Islamist movements, human rights activists, and labor mobilizers across Central Asia avail themselves of this fact, thus changing their ability to pursue their respective agendas. By refocusing our analytic gaze away from high politics, he affords us a clearer view of the slower-moving, partially occluded, and socially embedded processes that ground how "America" becomes political. In turn, we gain a nuanced appreciation of the downstream effects of US foreign policy choices and a sober sense of the challenges posed by the politics of traveling images. Most treatments of anti-Americanism focus on politics in the realm of presidential elections and foreign policies. By focusing instead on symbols, Schatz lays bare how changing public attitudes shift social relations in politically significant ways, and considers how changing symbolic depictions of the United States recombine the raw material available for social mobilizers. Just like sediment traveling along waterways before reaching its final destination, the raw material that constitutes symbolic America can travel among various social groups, and can settle into place to form the basis of new social meanings. Symbolic America, Schatz shows us, matters for politics in Central Asia and beyond.
Author: Arvind Subramanian
Publisher: Peterson Institute
ISBN: 0881326410
Category : Economic development
Languages : en
Pages : 253
Get Book Here
Book Description
By most accounts, China has quickly grown into the second largest economy in the world. In this controversial new book, Subramanian argues that China has already become the most economically dominant country in the world in terms of wealth, trade and finance. Its dominance and eclipsing of US global economic power is more imminent, more broad-based and larger in magnitude than anyone has anticipated. Subramanian compares the economic dominance of China with that of the two previous economic superpowers--the United States and the United Kingdom--and highlights similarities and differences. One corollary is that the fundamentals are strong for the Chinese currency to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency. The final chapter forecasts how the international economic system is likely to evolve as a result of Chinese dominance.
Author: Robert D. Blackwill
Publisher: Council on Foreign Relations
ISBN: 0876096461
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 70
Get Book Here
Book Description
Robert D. Blackwill and Ashley J. Tellis argue that the United States has responded inadequately to the rise of Chinese power. This Council Special Report recommends placing less strategic emphasis on the goal of integrating China into the international system and more on balancing China's rise.
