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Author: Alexander Copestake
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 57
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Book Description
We estimate the impact of distinct types of slowdowns in China on countries and firms globally. First, we combine a structural vector autoregression framework with a broad-based measure of domestic economic activity in China to distinguish supply versus demand components of Chinese growth. We then use local projection models to assess the responses to such shocks of GDP growth (revenue) in other countries (firms). We find that: (i) both supply and demand slowdowns are associated with substantial declines in partner GDP and firm revenue; (ii) negative spillovers are larger in countries and firms with stronger trade links with China; and (iii) spillovers from Chinese supply shocks are stronger than spillovers from demand shocks, both at the aggregate- and firm-level.
Author: Alexander Copestake
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 57
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Book Description
We estimate the impact of distinct types of slowdowns in China on countries and firms globally. First, we combine a structural vector autoregression framework with a broad-based measure of domestic economic activity in China to distinguish supply versus demand components of Chinese growth. We then use local projection models to assess the responses to such shocks of GDP growth (revenue) in other countries (firms). We find that: (i) both supply and demand slowdowns are associated with substantial declines in partner GDP and firm revenue; (ii) negative spillovers are larger in countries and firms with stronger trade links with China; and (iii) spillovers from Chinese supply shocks are stronger than spillovers from demand shocks, both at the aggregate- and firm-level.
Author: Min Zhu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513515357
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.
Author: Hang T. Banh
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513542303
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented collapse in global economic activity and trade. The crisis has also highlighted the role played by global value chains (GVC), with countries facing shortages of components vital to everything from health systems to everyday household goods. Despite the vulnerabilities associated with increased interconnectedness, GVCs have also contributed to increasing productivity and long-term growth. We explore empirically the impact of GVC participation on productivity in Estonia using firm-level data from 2000 to 2016. We find that higher GVC participation at the industry level significantly boosts productivity at both the industry and the firm level. Frontier firms, large firms, and exporting firms also benefit more from GVC participation than non-frontier firms, small firms, and non-exporting firms. We also find that GVC participation of downstream industries has a negative correlation with productivity. Frontier firms and large firms benefit more from GVC participation of upstream industries, while non-frontier firms and small firms benefit more from GVC participation of downstream industries. Our results suggest that policies designed to promote participation in GVCs are important to raise aggregate productivity and potential growth in Estonia.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498363288
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 135
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Book Description
The current Global Financial Stability Report (April 2016) finds that global financial stability risks have risen since the last report in October 2015. The new report finds that the outlook has deteriorated in advanced economies because of heightened uncertainty and setbacks to growth and confidence, while declines in oil and commodity prices and slower growth have kept risks elevated in emerging markets. These developments have tightened financial conditions, reduced risk appetite, raised credit risks, and stymied balance sheet repair. A broad-based policy response is needed to secure financial stability. Advanced economies must deal with crisis legacy issues, emerging markets need to bolster their resilience to global headwinds, and the resilience of market liquidity should be enhanced. The report also examines financial spillovers from emerging market economies and finds that they have risen substantially. This implies that when assessing macro-financial conditions, policymakers may need to increasingly take into account economic developments in emerging market economies. Finally, the report assesses changes in the systemic importance of insurers, finding that across advanced economies the contribution of life insurers to systemic risk has increased in recent years. The results suggest that supervisors and regulators should take a more macroprudential approach to the sector.
Author: Mr.Koshy Mathai
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475531710
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 84
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Book Description
China’s trade patterns are evolving. While it started in light manufacturing and the assembly of more sophisticated products as part of global supply chains, China is now moving up the value chain, “onshoring” the production of higher-value-added upstream products and moving into more sophisticated downstream products as well. At the same time, with its wages rising, it has started to exit some lower-end, more labor-intensive sectors. These changes are taking place in the broader context of China’s rebalancing—away from exports and toward domestic demand, and within the latter, away from investment and toward consumption—and as a consequence, demand for some commodity imports is slowing, while consumption imports are slowly rising. The evolution of Chinese trade, investment, and consumption patterns offers opportunities and challenges to low-wage, low-income countries, including China’s neighbors in the Mekong region. Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., Myanmar, and Vietnam (the CLMV) are all open economies that are highly integrated with China. Rebalancing in China may mean less of a role for commodity exports from the region, but at the same time, the CLMV’s low labor costs suggest that manufacturing assembly for export could take off as China becomes less competitive, and as China itself demands more consumption items. Labor costs, however, are only part of the story. The CLMV will need to strengthen their infrastructure, education, governance, and trade regimes, and also run sound macro policies in order to capitalize fully on the opportunities presented by China’s transformation. With such policy efforts, the CLMV could see their trade and integration with global supply chains grow dramatically in the coming years.
Author: Rui Xu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484326008
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
We analyze the impact of rising import competition from China on U.S. innovative activities. Using Compustat data, we find that import competition induces R&D expenditures to be reallocated towards more productive and more profitable firms within each industry. Such reallocation effect has the potential to offset the average drop in firm-level R&D identified in the previous literature. Indeed, our quantitative analysis shows no adverse impact of import competition on aggregate R&D expenditures. Taking the analysis beyond manufacturing, we find that import competition has led to reallocation of researchers towards booming service industries, including business and repairs, personal services, and financial services.
Author: Gee Hee Hong
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475526601
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
Asia and China made disproportionate contributions to the slowdown of global trade growth in 2015. China’s import growth slowed starkly, driven by both external and domestic factors, including a rebalancing of demand. Econometric results point to weak investment and rebalancing as the main causes of the import slowdown. Spillover effects from China’s rebalancing are estimated for some 60 countries using value-added trade data, and are found to be more negative on Asia and commodity exporters than others.
Author: Galina Hale
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814340405
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 188
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Book Description
This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the effects that foreign direct investment into China has had on the productivity, exporting activity, and innovation of Chinese domestic firms, as well as on the nation's labor markets. The analysis relies on the most complete data available and state-of-the-art statistical analysis. The book also includes a critical overview of existing theoretical and empirical literature on these issues and is meant to provide guidance to researchers in the area of FDI effects in general, as well as those interested in studying the Chinese economy.
Author: Cheryl Xiaoning Long
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814462012
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 188
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Book Description
This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the effects that foreign direct investment into China has had on the productivity, exporting activity, and innovation of Chinese domestic firms, as well as on the nation's labor markets. The analysis relies on the most complete data available and state-of-the-art statistical analysis. The book also includes a critical overview of existing theoretical and empirical literature on these issues and is meant to provide guidance to researchers in the area of FDI effects in general, as well as those interested in studying the Chinese economy.
Author: Xiaolan Fu
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1316240215
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 453
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Book Description
Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic growth and a fascinating transformation of its industry. However, much of this success is the result of industrial imitation, and China's continuing success now relies heavily on its ability to strengthen its indigenous innovation capability. In this book, Xiaolan Fu investigates how China can develop a strategy of compressed development to emerge as a leading innovative nation. The book draws on quantitative and qualitative research that includes cross-country, cross-province and cross-firm analysis. Large multi-level panel datasets, unique survey databases, and in-depth industry case studies are explored. Different theoretical approaches are also used to examine the motivations, obstacles and consequences of China's innovation with a wider discussion around what other countries can learn from China's experience. This book will appeal to scholars and policy-makers working in fields such as innovation policy, technology management, development and international economics, and China studies.
