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Author: Gordon Woo
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 1848168934
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 368
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Book Description
Calculating Catastrophe has been written to explain, to a general readership, the underlying philosophical ideas and scientific principles that govern catastrophic events, both natural and man-made. Knowledge of the broad range of catastrophes deepens understanding of individual modes of disaster. This book will be of interest to anyone aspiring to understand catastrophes better, but will be of particular value to those engaged in public and corporate policy, and the financial markets.The author, Dr. Gordon Woo, was trained in mathematical physics at Cambridge, MIT and Harvard, and has made his career as a calculator of catastrophes. His diverse experience includes consulting for IAEA on the seismic safety of nuclear plants and for BP on offshore oil well drilling. As a catastrophist at Risk Management Solutions, he has advanced the insurance modelling of catastrophes, including designing a model for terrorism risk.
Author: Gordon Woo
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 1848168934
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 368
Get Book Here
Book Description
Calculating Catastrophe has been written to explain, to a general readership, the underlying philosophical ideas and scientific principles that govern catastrophic events, both natural and man-made. Knowledge of the broad range of catastrophes deepens understanding of individual modes of disaster. This book will be of interest to anyone aspiring to understand catastrophes better, but will be of particular value to those engaged in public and corporate policy, and the financial markets.The author, Dr. Gordon Woo, was trained in mathematical physics at Cambridge, MIT and Harvard, and has made his career as a calculator of catastrophes. His diverse experience includes consulting for IAEA on the seismic safety of nuclear plants and for BP on offshore oil well drilling. As a catastrophist at Risk Management Solutions, he has advanced the insurance modelling of catastrophes, including designing a model for terrorism risk.
Author: G. Woo
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 1848167407
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 368
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Book Description
1. Natural hazards. 1.1. Causation and association. 1.2. Extra-terrestrial hazards. 1.3. Meteorological hazards. 1.4. Geological hazards. 1.5. Geomorphic hazards. 1.6. Hydrological hazards -- 2. Societal hazards. 2.1. Political violence. 2.2. Infectious disease pandemics. 2.3. Industrial and transportation accidents. 2.4. Fraud catastrophe -- 3. A sense of scale. 3.1. Size scales of natural hazards. 3.2. Hazard spatial scales. 3.3. The human disaster toll. 3.4. Models of a fractal world -- 4. A measure of uncertainty. 4.1. The concept of probability. 4.2. The meaning of uncertainty. 4.3. Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. 4.4. Probability ambiguity. 4.5. The weighing of evidence -- 5. A matter of time. 5.1. Temporal models of hazards. 5.2. Long-term data records. 5.3. Statistics of extremes -- 6. Catastrophe complexity. 6.1. Emergent catastrophes. 6.2. Financial crashes. 6.3. Ancillary hazards -- 7. Terrorism. 7.1. A thinking man's game. 7.2. Defeating terrorist networks. 7.3. Counter-radicalization -- 8. Forecasting. 8.1. Earthquake forecasting. 8.2. Verification. 8.3. River flows and sea waves. 8.4. Accelerating approach to criticality. 8.5. Evidence-based diagnosis -- 9. Disaster warning. 9.1. Decision in the balance. 9.2. Evacuation. 9.3. The wisdom of experts -- 10. Disaster scenarios. 10.1. Scenario simulation. 10.2. Footprints and vulnerability. 10.3. Fermi problems -- 11. Catastrophe cover. 11.1. Probable maximum loss. 11.2. Coherent risk measures. 11.3. The Samaritan's dilemma -- 12. Catastrophe risk securitization. 12.1. Catastrophe bonds. 12.2. The price of innovation -- 13. Risk horizons. 13.1. Ecological catastrophe. 13.2. Climate change. 13.3. War and conflict resolution
Author: Gordon Woo
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 1848167385
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 368
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Book Description
Calculating Catastrophe has been written to explain, to a general readership, the underlying philosophical ideas and scientific principles that govern catastrophic events, both natural and man-made. Knowledge of the broad range of catastrophes deepens understanding of individual modes of disaster. This book will be of interest to anyone aspiring to understand catastrophes better, but will be of particular value to those engaged in public and corporate policy, and the financial markets.The author, Dr. Gordon Woo, was trained in mathematical physics at Cambridge, MIT and Harvard, and has made his career as a calculator of catastrophes. His diverse experience includes consulting for IAEA on the seismic safety of nuclear plants and for BP on offshore oil well drilling. As a catastrophist at Risk Management Solutions, he has advanced the insurance modelling of catastrophes, including designing a model for terrorism risk.
Author: Richard A. Clarke
Publisher: HarperCollins
ISBN: 006248804X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 294
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Book Description
From President Bill Clinton's recommended reading list Publishers Weekly Bestseller Warnings is the story of the future of national security, threatening technologies, the U.S. economy, and possibly the fate of civilization. In Greek mythology Cassandra foresaw calamities, but was cursed by the gods to be ignored. Modern-day Cassandras clearly predicted the disasters of Katrina, Fukushima, the Great Recession, the rise of ISIS, the spread of viruses and many more. Like the mythological Cassandra, they were ignored. There are others right now warning of impending disasters—from cyber attacks to pandemics—but how do we know which warnings are likely to be right? Through riveting explorations in a variety of fields, the authors—both accomplished CEOs and White House National Security Council veterans—discover a method to separate the accurate Cassandras from the crazy doomsayers. They then investigate the experts who today are warning of future disasters: the threats from artificial intelligence, bio-hacking, malware attacks, and more, and whose calls are not being heeded. Clarke’s and Eddy’s penetrating insights are essential for any person, any business, or any government that doesn’t want to be a blind victim of tomorrow’s catastrophe.
Author: Gary Zhexi Zhang
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 1913689670
Category : Art
Languages : en
Pages : 281
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Book Description
A collection of essays, fictions, and interviews exploring the weird temporalities of finance and catastrophe. Once, financial practitioners plied a hybrid trade as hydrologists, star-gazers, and weather-watchers who sought to discover the natural laws of value and exchange as they did the divine order of an unchanging nature. Today, corporate firms hire trend forecasters and scenario planners to play out strategic fictions in virtual worlds. Hurricane insurance markets simulate a turbulent climate to offer investment instruments to hedge against the risks of the stock market. And for financial astrologers operating in the city of London, celestial motions provide a cosmic map that orients the mood of terrestrial markets. Bringing together artists, researchers, and interstitial practitioners, Catastrophe Time! pays attention to the conditions of speculative knowledge on an increasingly volatile planet. Traversing a gray zone between rigorous research and operative science fictions, its contributors question how practices of speculation may transform, undermine, and at times exceed, the worlds they set out to model. Edited by artist Gary Zhexi Zhang, Catastrophe Time! explores the power of temporal technologies—whether currencies, conspiracies, or simulation models—to shape reality through fiction. By bringing together researchers and writers working at the boundaries of temporal practices, including Diann Bauer, Philip Grant, Bahar Noorizadeh, Habib William Kherbek, Klara Kofen, Kei Kreutler, Suhail Malik, Bassem Saad and Gordon Woo, this urgent volume seeks to make sense of the unraveling times in which we live.
Author: Colin Mason
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136555110
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 256
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Book Description
The clock is relentlessly ticking! Our world teeters on a knife-edge between a peaceful and prosperous future for all, and a dark winter of death and destruction that threatens to smother the light of civilization. Within 30 years, in the 2030 decade, six powerful 'drivers' will converge with unprecedented force in a statistical spike that could tear humanity apart and plunge the world into a new Dark Age. Depleted fuel supplies, massive population growth, poverty, global climate change, famine, growing water shortages and international lawlessness are on a crash course with potentially catastrophic consequences. In the face of both doomsaying and denial over the state of our world, Colin Mason cuts through the rhetoric and reams of conflicting data to muster the evidence to illustrate a broad picture of the world as it is, and our possible futures. Ultimately his message is clear; we must act decisively, collectively and immediately to alter the trajectory of humanity away from catastrophe. Offering over 100 priorities for immediate action, The 2030 Spike serves as a guidebook for humanity through the treacherous minefields and wastelands ahead to a bright, peaceful and prosperous future in which all humans have the opportunity to thrive and build a better civilization. This book is powerful and essential reading for all people concerned with the future of humanity and planet earth.
Author: Richard A. Posner
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0195346394
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 333
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Book Description
Catastrophic risks are much greater than is commonly appreciated. Collision with an asteroid, runaway global warming, voraciously replicating nanomachines, a pandemic of gene-spliced smallpox launched by bioterrorists, and a world-ending accident in a high-energy particle accelerator, are among the possible extinction events that are sufficiently likely to warrant careful study. How should we respond to events that, for a variety of psychological and cultural reasons, we find it hard to wrap our minds around? Posner argues that realism about science and scientists, innovative applications of cost-benefit analysis, a scientifically literate legal profession, unprecedented international cooperation, and a pragmatic attitude toward civil liberties are among the keys to coping effectively with the catastrophic risks.
Author: Kirsten Mitchell-Wallace
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118906063
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 536
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Book Description
This book covers both the practical and theoretical aspects of catastrophe modelling for insurance industry practitioners and public policymakers. Written by authors with both academic and industry experience it also functions as an excellent graduate-level text and overview of the field. Ours is a time of unprecedented levels of risk from both natural and anthropogenic sources. Fortunately, it is also an era of relatively inexpensive technologies for use in assessing those risks. The demand from both commercial and public interests—including (re)insurers, NGOs, global disaster management agencies, and local authorities—for sophisticated catastrophe risk assessment tools has never been greater, and contemporary catastrophe modelling satisfies that demand. Combining the latest research with detailed coverage of state-of-the-art catastrophe modelling techniques and technologies, this book delivers the knowledge needed to use, interpret, and build catastrophe models, and provides greater insight into catastrophe modelling’s enormous potential and possible limitations. The first book containing the detailed, practical knowledge needed to support practitioners as effective catastrophe risk modellers and managers Includes hazard, vulnerability and financial material to provide the only independent, comprehensive overview of the subject, accessible to students and practitioners alike Demonstrates the relevance of catastrophe models within a practical, decision-making framework and illustrates their many applications Includes contributions from many of the top names in the field, globally, from industry, academia, and government Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Modelling: A Practitioner’s Guide is an important working resource for catastrophe modelling analysts and developers, actuaries, underwriters, and those working in compliance or regulatory functions related to catastrophe risk. It is also valuable for scientists and engineers seeking to gain greater insight into catastrophe risk management and its applications.
Author: Kenneth A. Froot
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226266257
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 490
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Book Description
Is it possible that the insurance and reinsurance industries cannot handle a major catastrophe? Ten years ago, the notion that the overall cost of a single catastrophic event might exceed $10 billion was unthinkable. With ever increasing property-casualty risks and unabated growth in hazard-prone areas, insurers and reinsurers now envision the possibility of disaster losses of $50 to $100 billion in the United States. Against this backdrop, the capitalization of the insurance and reinsurance industries has become a crucial concern. While it remains unlikely that a single event might entirely bankrupt these industries, a big catastrophe could place firms under severe stress, jeopardizing both policy holders and investors and causing profound ripple effects throughout the U.S. economy. The Financing of Catastrophe Risk assembles an impressive roster of experts from academia and industry to explore the disturbing yet realistic assumption that a large catastrophic event is inevitable. The essays offer tangible means of both reassessing and raising the level of preparedness throughout the insurance and reinsurance industries.
Author: Courtney Brown
Publisher: SAGE
ISBN: 9780803958470
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 90
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Book Description
Chaos and catastrophe theories offer a complex new technique for modeling. By posing and answering a series of questions - What is Chaos? How can it be measured? How are the models estimated? What is catastrophe? How is it modeled? - the book introduces the reader to chaotic dynamics. Other topics covered are finding settings in which chaos can be measured, estimating chaos using nonlinear least squares, and specifying catastrophe models. Finally, the author estimates a nonlinear system of equations that models catastrophe using real survey data.
