Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis PDF Download
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Author: John B. Guerard, Jr.
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461452392
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 245
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Book Description
Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.
Author: John B. Guerard, Jr.
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461452392
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 245
Get Book Here
Book Description
Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.
Author: John E. Silvia
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118569547
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 400
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Book Description
Discover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting Equipping analysts, practitioners, and graduate students with a statistical framework to make effective decisions based on the application of simple economic and statistical methods, Economic and Business Forecasting offers a comprehensive and practical approach to quantifying and accurate forecasting of key variables. Using simple econometric techniques, author John E. Silvia focuses on a select set of major economic and financial variables, revealing how to optimally use statistical software as a template to apply to your own variables of interest. Presents the economic and financial variables that offer unique insights into economic performance Highlights the econometric techniques that can be used to characterize variables Explores the application of SAS software, complete with simple explanations of SAS-code and output Identifies key econometric issues with practical solutions to those problems Presenting the "ten commandments" for economic and business forecasting, this book provides you with a practical forecasting framework you can use for important everyday business applications.
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513536990
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Author: Todd A. Knoop
Publisher: Greenwood
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 320
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Book Description
The economy of any nation is an intricate web of relationships among the factors determining supply and demand--and everything that affects them, from inflation to taxes to the stock market. The study of business cycles attempts to explain why economies grow and contract, experiencing periods of prosperity and pain. Consistent with the popular conception of economics as the dismal science, economists secretly long for recessions (periods of negative growth) and depressions (severe contractions), not because they enjoy their devastating impact on human welfare, but because these downturns serve as excellent laboratories for observing what happens when markets break down. Despite over two centuries of debate, no one has yet definitively unlocked the secrets of economic downturns and how they might be prevented. In Recessions and Depressions Todd Knoop traces the evolution of business cycle theory, from the classical model, which preceded the Great Depression, through the ground-breaking ideas of John Maynard Keynes, Milton Friedman, and their followers. He examines the strengths and limitations of each approach, in terms of explaining the impact of such factors as government policy, money supply, labor productivity, and wages. In the process, he presents an accessible introduction to what makes the economy tick, and offers new insights into understanding such historic events as the Great Depression, as well as more recent ones, such as the Asian meltdown in the 1990s, the financial crises in Latin America, and the U.S. recession of 2001, from which the United States is still recovering. Knoop reminds us that economists' track record in forecasting business cycles leaves much to be desired, and the quest to fully understand what causes economic downturns--and their effects on individuals and families--continues.
Author: Joshua Ronen
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0387257713
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 587
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Book Description
This book is a study of earnings management, aimed at scholars and professionals in accounting, finance, economics, and law. The authors address research questions including: Why are earnings so important that firms feel compelled to manipulate them? What set of circumstances will induce earnings management? How will the interaction among management, boards of directors, investors, employees, suppliers, customers and regulators affect earnings management? How to design empirical research addressing earnings management? What are the limitations and strengths of current empirical models?
Author: Pamela P. Peterson
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0471914479
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 218
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Book Description
Revised and up to date, the Second Edition includes valuable information that addresses questions such as: * What is transparency and why do we care? * How can financial statements inform investors? * How can financial statements mislead investors? * How has the Sarbanes-Oxley Act changed companies' financial disclosures? * What should you look for in financial disclosures when judging a company's financial health? * How do financial statements relate to the value of a company's stock? * Why is cash flow so important to a company's financial health? Throughout Analysis of Financial Statements, Second Edition, the authors demonstrate the nuts and bolts of financial analysis by applying the techniques to actual companies. The authors set the stage for financial analysis in Part One with their discussions of financial statements and the quality of financial statements. In Part Two, they walk you through how to judge a company's financial health using financial disclosures in financial ratio analysis, earnings analysis, and cash flow analysis. In Part Three, the authors take analysis a step further by discussing how investors and creditors can use financial statements to more effectively assess a company's performance and risk. Peterson and Fabozzi wrap up this Second Edition with a set of lessons for investors and analysts: Lesson 1: Understand what you are looking at Lesson 2: Read the fine print Lesson 3: If it's too good to be true, it may be Lesson 4: Follow the money Lesson 5: Understand the risks
Author: Jon Gregory Taylor
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9780471188797
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 234
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Book Description
Ein übersichtlicher Leitfaden für eine nützliche Technik! Der Autor, Experte der Zeitplanung im Investmentgeschäft, erklärt dem Finanz- und Investmentprofi in diesem Buch, wie er seinen Ertrag in verschiedenen Stadien des Geschäftszyklus abschätzen kann. Dabei wird auf alle Facetten des Investments wie Aktien-, Wertpapier- und Fondsgeschäft eingegangen. (11/97)
Author: Mark J. P. Anson
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118008693
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 497
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Book Description
A comprehensive volume that covers a complete array of traditional and alternative investment vehicles This practical guide provides a comprehensive overview of traditional and alternative investment vehicles for professional and individual investors hoping to gain a deeper understanding of the benefits and pitfalls of using these products. In it, expert authors Mark Anson, Frank Fabozzi, and Frank Jones clearly present the major principles and methods of investing and their risks and rewards. Along the way, they focus on providing you with the information needed to successfully invest using a host of different methods depending upon your needs and goals. Topics include equities, all types of fixed income securities, investment-oriented insurance products, mutual funds, closed-end funds, investment companies, exchange-traded funds, futures, options, hedge funds, private equity, and real estate Written by the expert author team of Mark Anson, Frank Fabozzi, and Frank Jones Includes valuable insights for everyone from finance professionals to individual investors Many finance books offer collections of expertise on one or two areas of finance, but The Handbook of Traditional and Alternative Investment Vehicles brings all of these topics together in one comprehensive volume.
Author: Charles P. Jones
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470477121
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1281
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Book Description
In today’s economy, it’s critical for investors to have a strong understanding of the strategies needed to make the best decisions. Jones arms them with the most up-to-date information in the field while offering a proper balance between investment opportunities, techniques and analytics. He includes new discussions on the rapid rise and interest in exchange-traded funds, the new NYSE-Euronext market, the merger of the NYSE and Amex, and more. Expanded coverage is also presented in behavioral finance and the bond markets. In addition, investors will benefit from the updated problems and questions that really make them think of the most effective moves before acting.
Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: OUP USA
ISBN: 0195398645
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 732
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Book Description
Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.
