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Author: Burcu Aydin
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
This paper presents a modeling framework that delivers joint forecasts of indicators of systemic real risk and systemic financial risk, as well as stress-tests of these indicators as impulse responses to structural shocks identified by standard macroeconomic and banking theory. This framework is implemented using large sets of quarterly time series of indicators of financial and real activity for the G-7 economies for the 1980Q1-2009Q3 period. We obtain two main results. First, there is evidence of out-of sample forecasting power for tail risk realizations of real activity for several countries, suggesting the usefulness of the model as a risk monitoring tool. Second, in all countries aggregate demand shocks are the main drivers of the real cycle, and bank credit demand shocks are the main drivers of the bank lending cycle. These results challenge the common wisdom that constraints in the aggregate supply of credit have been a key driver of the sharp downturn in real activity experienced by the G-7 economies in 2008Q4- 2009Q1.
Author: Burcu Aydin
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
This paper presents a modeling framework that delivers joint forecasts of indicators of systemic real risk and systemic financial risk, as well as stress-tests of these indicators as impulse responses to structural shocks identified by standard macroeconomic and banking theory. This framework is implemented using large sets of quarterly time series of indicators of financial and real activity for the G-7 economies for the 1980Q1-2009Q3 period. We obtain two main results. First, there is evidence of out-of sample forecasting power for tail risk realizations of real activity for several countries, suggesting the usefulness of the model as a risk monitoring tool. Second, in all countries aggregate demand shocks are the main drivers of the real cycle, and bank credit demand shocks are the main drivers of the bank lending cycle. These results challenge the common wisdom that constraints in the aggregate supply of credit have been a key driver of the sharp downturn in real activity experienced by the G-7 economies in 2008Q4- 2009Q1.
Author: Charles Enoch
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1137001542
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 385
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Book Description
This book represents the latest developments and policy debate on the rapid growth of banking sector credit to the private sector, which continues to occupy the minds of academics and policymakers alike in many Central and Eastern European countries. The contributions discuss ways to assess and respond to excessive credit growth.
Author: Małgorzata Iwanicz-Drozdowska
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3030011119
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 231
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Book Description
This book provides an in-depth analysis of the role of foreign-owned banks for credit growth, financial stability and economic growth in the post-communist European countries. Using data covering 20 countries over the period from 1995 to 2015, the authors analyse the evolution of banking sectors in CESEE after the transformation in the historical context. This helps draw a new picture of the role of financial development and EU accession in that region, being also a lesson for other countries or regions in transition. Additionally, as the Global Financial Crisis has left a stigma in banking sectors, the book shows its impact on the post-communist banking sectors. As the foreign banks dominate the banking sectors in CESEE countries (the stake of foreign-owned banks is below 50% of assets in only five out of 20 countries), their strategies materially impact the development of CESEE banking sectors, which warrants our scientific exploration. Arriving at a clear concluding point of view on the role of foreign-owned banks and providing insights for future policy of CESEEs towards foreign presence in their banking sectors, this book should be of interest to academics, students, and policymakers.
Author: Mr.Stijn Claessens
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463939027
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
This paper introduces a comprehensive database on bank ownership for 137 countries over 1995-2009, and reviews foreign bank behavior and impact. It documents substantial increases in foreign bank presence, with many more home and host countries. Current market shares of foreign banks average 20 percent in OECD countries and 50 percent elsewhere. Foreign banks have higher capital and more liquidity, but lower profitability than domestic banks do. Only in developing countries is foreign bank presence negatively related with domestic credit creation. During the global crisis foreign banks reduced credit more compared to domestic banks, except when they dominated the host banking systems.
Author: Rym Ayadi
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789461380425
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
A midst stormy waters, financial systems develop and evolve. New institutional forms and instruments are invented and put into use. Some of them turn out to be successful while others disappear: a natural process of creative and dynamic competition argues for diversity. Diversity offers an optimal environment in which new ideas can come to life, existing ideas can evolve and old ideas make a comeback. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, the foundations of several decades of modern and innovative financial systems have suffered serious damage. This has triggered massive state interventions and has led authorities to revamp the regulatory structures and frameworks. While many voices have called for a return to more traditional approaches to banking and finance, no one has argued the merits of diversity. This book investigates the merits of a diverse banking system with a special focus on the performance and role of cooperative banks in seven European countries where they are prominent (Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain). The theoretical and empirical arguments that are developed in this book tend to support the view that it is economically beneficial to have stakeholder-value banks with a dual bottom-line function, such as cooperative banks. For those who accept this premise, it would suggest that policy-makers should not take or support actions that could jeopardise this valuable element of the financial system in various countries in Europe and of the emerging integrated European financial system. Book jacket.
Author: Asli Demirguc-Kunt
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464812683
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 228
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Book Description
In 2011 the World Bank—with funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation—launched the Global Findex database, the world's most comprehensive data set on how adults save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk. Drawing on survey data collected in collaboration with Gallup, Inc., the Global Findex database covers more than 140 economies around the world. The initial survey round was followed by a second one in 2014 and by a third in 2017. Compiled using nationally representative surveys of more than 150,000 adults age 15 and above in over 140 economies, The Global Findex Database 2017: Measuring Financial Inclusion and the Fintech Revolution includes updated indicators on access to and use of formal and informal financial services. It has additional data on the use of financial technology (or fintech), including the use of mobile phones and the Internet to conduct financial transactions. The data reveal opportunities to expand access to financial services among people who do not have an account—the unbanked—as well as to promote greater use of digital financial services among those who do have an account. The Global Findex database has become a mainstay of global efforts to promote financial inclusion. In addition to being widely cited by scholars and development practitioners, Global Findex data are used to track progress toward the World Bank goal of Universal Financial Access by 2020 and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.The database, the full text of the report, and the underlying country-level data for all figures—along with the questionnaire, the survey methodology, and other relevant materials—are available at www.worldbank.org/globalfindex.
Author: Mr.Ruben Atoyan
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498367453
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
This paper analyses the impact of large and persistent emigration from Eastern European countries over the past 25 years on these countries’ growth and income convergence to advanced Europe. While emigration has likely benefited migrants themselves, the receiving countries and the EU as a whole, its impact on sending countries’ economies has been largely negative. The analysis suggests that labor outflows, particularly of skilled workers, lowered productivity growth, pushed up wages, and slowed growth and income convergence. At the same time, while remittance inflows supported financial deepening, consumption and investment in some countries, they also reduced incentives to work and led to exchange rate appreciations, eroding competiveness. The departure of the young also added to the fiscal pressures of already aging populations in Eastern Europe. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for sending countries to mitigate the negative impact of emigration on their economies, and the EU-wide initiatives that could support these efforts.
Author: Ms.Mercedes Garcia-Escribano
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513581929
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
This paper explores the contribution of credit growth and the composition of credit portfolio (corporate, consumer, and housing credit) to economic growth in emerging market economies (EMs). Using cross-country panel regressions, we find significant impact of credit growth on real GDP growth, with the magnitude and transmission channel of the impact of credit on real activity depending on the specific type of credit. In particular, the results show that corporate credit shocks influence GDP growth mainly through investment, while consumer credit shocks are associated with private consumption. In addition, taking Brazil as a case study, we use a time series model to examine the role that the expansion and composition of credit played in driving real GDP growth in the past. The results of the case study are consistent with those found in the cross-country panel regressions.
Author: Robert Cull
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475588127
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 49
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Book Description
This paper presents recent trends in bank ownership across countries and summarizes the evidence regarding the implications of bank ownership structure for bank performance and competition, financial stability, and access to finance. The evidence reviewed suggests that foreign-owned banks are more efficient than domestic banks in developing countries, promote competition in host banking sectors, and help stabilize credit when host countries face idiosyncratic shocks. But there are tradeoffs, since foreign-owned banks can transmit external shocks and might not always expand access to credit. The record on the impact of government bank ownership suggests few benefits, especially for developing countries.
Author: Vitor Gaspar
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789291813483
Category : Banks and banking
Languages : en
Pages : 334
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Book Description
