Asymmetric Error Correction Models for the Oil-Gasoline Price Relationship PDF Download
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Author: Matteo Manera
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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The existing literature on price asymmetries does not systematically investigate the sensitivity of the empirical results to the choice of a particular econometric specification. This paper fills this gap by providing a detailed comparison of the three most popular models designed to describe asymmetric price behaviour, namely asymmetric ECM, autoregressive threshold ECM and ECM with threshold cointegration. Each model is estimated on a common monthly dataset for the gasoline markets of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK over the period 1985-2003. All models are able to capture the temporal delay in the reaction of retail prices to changes in spot gasoline and crude oil prices, as well as some evidence of asymmetric behaviour. However, the type of market and the number of countries which are characterized by asymmetric oil-gasoline price relations vary across models. The asymmetric ECM yields some evidence of asymmetry for all countries, mainly at the distribution stage. The threshold ECM strongly rejects the null hypothesis of symmetric price behaviour, particularly in the case of France and Germany. Finally, the ECM with threshold cointegration finds long-run asymmetry for each country in the reaction of retail prices to oil price changes.
Author: Matteo Manera
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The existing literature on price asymmetries does not systematically investigate the sensitivity of the empirical results to the choice of a particular econometric specification. This paper fills this gap by providing a detailed comparison of the three most popular models designed to describe asymmetric price behaviour, namely asymmetric ECM, autoregressive threshold ECM and ECM with threshold cointegration. Each model is estimated on a common monthly dataset for the gasoline markets of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK over the period 1985-2003. All models are able to capture the temporal delay in the reaction of retail prices to changes in spot gasoline and crude oil prices, as well as some evidence of asymmetric behaviour. However, the type of market and the number of countries which are characterized by asymmetric oil-gasoline price relations vary across models. The asymmetric ECM yields some evidence of asymmetry for all countries, mainly at the distribution stage. The threshold ECM strongly rejects the null hypothesis of symmetric price behaviour, particularly in the case of France and Germany. Finally, the ECM with threshold cointegration finds long-run asymmetry for each country in the reaction of retail prices to oil price changes.
Author: Qingtian Zhou
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Based on the long-run equilibrium relationships between international crude oil prices and domestic gasoline prices, we employ an asymmetric error correction model (ECM) with the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) method, to study the price pass-through of the wholesale gasoline in 20 provincial-level administrative divisions in China during the period between 2009 and 2013. We estimate the speeds, sizes, region differences and asymmetries in the gasoline price adjustment processes. We find that 16 provinces exhibit significant "rockets and feathers" phenomena. In Jiangxi province, where the highest level of asymmetry exists, wholesale prices are on average 13.26 yuan higher in the same week after a one-dollar increase in the price of crude oil, but are still 2.49 yuan higher after a one-dollar decrease. We discuss the identification conditions of our models, the possible theories behind the asymmetries, and their policy implications.
Author: B. Bhaskara Rao
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 16
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Author: Jingping Gu
Publisher:
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II examines the possible asymmetric response of gasoline prices to crude oil price changes using an error correction model with GARCH errors. Recent papers have looked at this issue. Some of these papers estimate a form of error correction model, but none of them accounts for autoregressive heteroskedasticity in estimation and testing for asymmetry and none of them takes the response of crude oil price into consideration. We find that time-varying volatility of gasoline price disturbances is an important feature of the data, and when we allow for asymmetric GARCH errors and investigate the system wide impulse response function, we find evidence of asymmetric adjustment to crude oil price changes in weekly retail gasoline prices. Chapter III discusses the relationship between fiscal deficit and exchange rate. Economic theory predicts that fiscal deficits can significantly affect real exchange rate movements, but existing empirical evidence reports only a weak impact of fiscal deficits on exchange rates. Based on US dollar-based real exchange rates in G5 countries and a flexible varying coefficient model, we show that the previously documented weak relationship between fiscal deficits and exchange rates may be the result of additive specifications, and that the relationship is stronger if we allow fiscal deficits to impact real exchange rates non-additively as well as nonlinearly. We find that the speed of exchange rate adjustment toward equilibrium depends on the state of the fiscal deficit; a fiscal contraction in the US can lead to less persistence in the deviation of exchange rates from fundamentals, and faster mean reversion to the equilibrium. Chapter IV proposes a kernel method to deal with the nonparametric regression model with only discrete covariates as regressors. This new approach is based on recently developed least squares cross-validation kernel smoothing method. It can not only automatically smooth the irrelevant variables out of the nonparametric regression model, but also avoid the problem of loss of efficiency related to the traditional nonparametric frequency-based method and the problem of misspecification based on parametric model.
Author: Federal Trade Commission
Publisher: CreateSpace
ISBN: 9781502478474
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
This book presents new evidence of asymmetric pass-through, the notion that upward cost shocks are passed through faster than downward cost shocks, in U.S. gasoline prices. Much of the extant literature comes to seemingly contradictory conclusions about the existence of an asymmetry, though the differences may be due to different aggregation (both over time and geographic markets) and the use of different price series including crude oil, wholesale, and retail gasoline prices. I utilize a large and detailed dataset to determine where evidence of a pass-through asymmetry exists, and how it depends on the aggregation and price series chosen by the researcher. Using the standard error correction model, I find evidence of pass-through asymmetry in the response of daily and weekly retail prices to wholesale rack price changes, though the magnitude varies by geographic market. On average, retail prices rise more than four times as fast as they fall. Branded gasoline features significantly more asymmetry with respect to rack prices compared with unbranded gasoline. Over time, nation-wide asymmetry varies significantly from year to year peaking in 2005. Midwest cities, like Louisville and Minneapolis, feature more asymmetry compared with other parts of the country. F-tests broadly confirm the results and illustrate that data selection and aggregation, as well as model specification, can have important implications on the findings of asymmetric pass-through.
Author:
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 1428918760
Category : Gasoline
Languages : en
Pages : 52
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Book Description
This report examines a recurring question about gasoline markets: why, especially in times of high price volatility, do retail gasoline prices seem to rise quickly but fall back more slowly? Do gasoline prices actually rise faster than they fall, or does this just appear to be the case because people tend to pay more attention to prices when they`re rising? This question is more complex than it might appear to be initially, and it has been addressed by numerous analysts in government, academia and industry. The question is very important, because perceived problems with retail gasoline pricing have been used in arguments for government regulation of prices. The phenomenon of prices at different market levels tending to move differently relative to each other depending on direction is known as price asymmetry. This report summarizes the previous work on gasoline price asymmetry and provides a method for testing for asymmetry in a wide variety of situations. The major finding of this paper is that there is some amount of asymmetry and pattern asymmetry, especially at the retail level, in the Midwestern states that are the focus of the analysis. Nevertheless, both the amount asymmetry and pattern asymmetry are relatively small. In addition, much of the pattern asymmetry detected in this and previous studies could be a statistical artifact caused by the time lags between price changes at different points in the gasoline distribution system. In other words, retail gasoline prices do sometimes rise faster than they fall, but this is largely a lagged market response to an upward shock in the underlying wholesale gasoline or crude oil prices, followed by a return toward the previous baseline. After consistent time lags are factored out, most apparent asymmetry disappears.
Author: Andrea Bastianin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Electronic book
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Robin C. Sickles
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1489980083
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 417
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Book Description
From the Introduction: This volume is dedicated to the remarkable career of Professor Peter Schmidt and the role he has played in mentoring us, his PhD students. Peter’s accomplishments are legendary among his students and the profession. Each of the papers in this Festschrift is a research work executed by a former PhD student of Peter’s, from his days at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill to his time at Michigan State University. Most of the papers were presented at The Conference in Honor of Peter Schmidt, June 30 - July 2, 2011. The conference was largely attended by his former students and one current student, who traveled from as far as Europe and Asia to honor Peter. This was a conference to celebrate Peter’s contribution to our contributions. By “our contributions” we mean the research papers that make up this Festschrift and the countless other publications by his students represented and not represented in this volume. Peter’s students may have their families to thank for much that is positive in their lives. However, if we think about it, our professional lives would not be the same without the lessons and the approaches to decision making that we learned from Peter. We spent our days together at Peter’s conference and the months since reminded of these aspects of our personalities and life goals that were enhanced, fostered, and nurtured by the very singular experiences we have had as Peter’s students. We recognized in 2011 that it was unlikely we would all be together again to celebrate such a wonderful moment in ours and Peter’s lives and pledged then to take full advantage of it. We did then, and we are now in the form of this volume.
Author: Tugrul Gurgur
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 37
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Book Description
In this study, we provide empirical evidence on the asymmetric relationship between the cost of crude oil and retail price of gasoline in Turkey. We disentangle the cost channel into two parts: the crude oil price in foreign currency and exchange rate. Then, we estimate the determinants of retail prices via an NARDL model that addresses asymmetry in both the long-run and the short-run. We show that the impacts of the two channels differ in a significant way. In particular, the transmission of an exchange rate shock to the retail price is more rapid and more significant in magnitude compared to that of a shock to crude oil price in foreign currency. Our results show that the source of asymmetric relationship is mainly exchange rate. While the response of retail price to currency depreciation is more rapid and larger in magnitude compared to that of appreciation, its response to the movements in crude oil price in foreign currency is largely symmetric. Finally, the estimation results reveal that moderate changes in exchange rate and international price of crude oil are hardly reflected to the retail price.
Author: Yen-Hsien Lee
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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This study employs the momentum threshold error-correction model with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity to investigate asymmetric cointegration and causal relationships between West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil and gold prices in the futures market. The paper examines data from May 1, 1994 to November 20, 2008. The empirical results show that an asymmetric long-run adjustment exists between gold and oil. Furthermore, the causality relationship shows that West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil plays a dominant role. The findings should prove valuable to individual investors and financial institutions who can use the findings here to gold prices based on oil prices.
