Author: John Gray Geer
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Presidents
Languages : en
Pages : 396

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Author: John G. Geer
Publisher: Praeger
ISBN: 0313261822
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Geer makes a strong case for the primary over the party-leader method of electing presidential candidates. Drawing on data from the CBS/New York Times and ABC/Washington Post exit polls in 1976, 1980, and 1984, he identifies the following significant findings: voters in primaries--contrary to conventional wisdom--are less educated, less well-paid, more moderate ideologically, yet more informed than the general party following; voter decisions are based more on the candidates' personal characteristics than on their stands on issues, their ideological persuasions, or their chances of winning in the general election; the news media influence on voters is an important and sometimes a negative factor. He concludes with a convincing proposal for reform in order to correct problems that plague the current system. ISBN 0-313-26182-2: $37.95.

Author: Nitya Tangada Rao
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 96

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Endorsements are an integral part of American political campaigns, but despite their ubiquity, there exists only sparse literature evaluating either the impact of endorsements on electoral outcomes or the circumstances in which endorsements are offered. I hypothesized that the primary factor influencing a politician’s decision to endorse was a perceived increase in a candidate’s chance of success; thus politicians are more likely to endorse candidates who have demonstrated a real potential for winning the election. Using the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination and the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination as case studies, I regressed daily proportions of endorsements given on prediction market share prices from the Iowa Electronic Markets. I used an Almon distributed lag model to account for the delay between a politician observing an increase in a candidate’s chance of success and their subsequent endorsement. Though there was a weakly positive association between prediction market share prices and endorsements shares, I found little evidence to support the claim that politicians systematically offer endorsements in response to increases in a candidate’s probability of success.

Author: Larry M. Bartels
Publisher: Princeton, N.J. : Princeton University Press
ISBN: 9780691077659
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 374

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This innovative study blends sophisticated statistical analyses, campaign anecdotes, and penetrating political insight to produce a fascinating exploration of one of America's most controversial political institutions--the process by which our major parties nominate candidates for the presidency. Larry Bartels focuses on the nature and impact of "momentum" in the contemporary nominating system. He describes the complex interconnections among primary election results, expectations, and subsequent primary results that have made it possible for candidates like Jimmy Carter, George Bush, and Gary Hart to emerge from relative obscurity into political prominence in recent nominating campaigns. In the course of his analysis, he addresses questions central to any understanding--or evaluation--of the modern nominating process. How do fundamental political predispositions influence the behavior of primary voters? How quickly does the public learn about new candidates? Under what circumstances will primary success itself generate subsequent primary success? And what are the psychological processes underlying this dynamic tendency? Professor Bartels examines the likely consequences of some proposed alternatives to the current nominating process, including a regional primary system and a one-day national primary. Thus the work will be of interest to political activists, would-be reformers, and interested observers of the American political scene, as well as to students of public opinion, voting behavior, the news media, campaigns, and electoral institutions.

Author: Allan J. Lichtman
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 246

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In the days after Donald Trump’s unexpected victory on election night 2016, The New York Times, CNN, and other leading media outlets reached out to one of the few pundits who had correctly predicted the outcome, Allan J. Lichtman. While many election forecasters base their findings exclusively on public opinion polls, Lichtman looks at the underlying fundamentals that have driven every presidential election since 1860. Using his 13 historical factors or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), Lichtman had been predicting Trump’s win since September 2016. In the updated 2024 edition, he applies the keys to every presidential election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2024 race. In doing so, he dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies!

Author: United States. Office of the Director of National Intelligence
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN: 9781542630030
Category : Cyberterrorism
Languages : en
Pages : 26

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This report includes an analytic assessment drafted and coordinated among The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and The National Security Agency (NSA), which draws on intelligence information collected and disseminated by those three agencies. It covers the motivation and scope of Moscow's intentions regarding US elections and Moscow's use of cyber tools and media campaigns to influence US public opinion. The assessment focuses on activities aimed at the 2016 US presidential election and draws on our understanding of previous Russian influence operations. When we use the term "we" it refers to an assessment by all three agencies. * This report is a declassified version of a highly classified assessment. This document's conclusions are identical to the highly classified assessment, but this document does not include the full supporting information, including specific intelligence on key elements of the influence campaign. Given the redactions, we made minor edits purely for readability and flow. We did not make an assessment of the impact that Russian activities had on the outcome of the 2016 election. The US Intelligence Community is charged with monitoring and assessing the intentions, capabilities, and actions of foreign actors; it does not analyze US political processes or US public opinion. * New information continues to emerge, providing increased insight into Russian activities. * PHOTOS REMOVED

Author: Austin Ranney
Publisher: American Enterprise Institute Press
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 72

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Author: Eugene D. Mazo
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108835392
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 419

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Leading scholars examine the law governing the American presidential nomination process and offer practical ideas for reform.

Author: Bandy X. Lee
Publisher: Thomas Dunne Books
ISBN: 1250256283
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 382

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Book Description
As this bestseller predicted, Trump has only grown more erratic and dangerous as the pressures on him mount. This new edition includes new essays bringing the book up to date—because this is still not normal. Originally released in fall 2017, The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump was a runaway bestseller. Alarmed Americans and international onlookers wanted to know: What is wrong with him? That question still plagues us. The Trump administration has proven as chaotic and destructive as its opponents feared, and the man at the center of it all remains a cipher. Constrained by the APA’s “Goldwater rule,” which inhibits mental health professionals from diagnosing public figures they have not personally examined, many of those qualified to weigh in on the issue have shied away from discussing it at all. The public has thus been left to wonder whether he is mad, bad, or both. The prestigious mental health experts who have contributed to the revised and updated version of The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump argue that their moral and civic "duty to warn" supersedes professional neutrality. Whatever affects him, affects the nation: From the trauma people have experienced under the Trump administration to the cult-like characteristics of his followers, he has created unprecedented mental health consequences across our nation and beyond. With eight new essays (about one hundred pages of new material), this edition will cover the dangerous ramifications of Trump's unnatural state. It’s not all in our heads. It’s in his.

Author: United States
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Campaign funds
Languages : en
Pages : 160

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