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Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Crown
ISBN: 080413670X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 352
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Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Crown
ISBN: 080413670X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 352
Get Book
Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author: Gayatri Devi Vasudev
Publisher: Motilal Banarsidass Publishe
ISBN: 9788120832299
Category : Body, Mind & Spirit
Languages : en
Pages : 284
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Book Description
Astrology and interest in it have been growing at a pace that does justice to the subject as a discipline of great consequence in handling the complexities and ills of human life and existence. The Art of Prediction in Astrology is a simple guide to the techniques of interpretation of the horoscope. This book teaches how to apply and interpret some important planetary combinations and dicta found in classical works to practical cases. This shows further how to analyse and understand:*Yogas for fame and lasting reputation, renunciation, spiritual realization, tyranny and homicidal tendencies.*Difficult concepts such as the difference between Resi and Bhave, Yamaganda and Yamakantaka, the Moon's role in understanding human psychology and behavious and the nexus between Rahu-Ketu and schizophrenic tendencies.*Eclipses and how they influence the timing of events.*Solar activity and planetary movements in relation to weather, agricultural crops and tsunamis.*Principles of Muhurta and natal horoscopy in making forecasts on the fall and continuance of governments and how Martian movements can trigger terrorist attacks such as that of September 11, 2001.*Simplifies the intricate art of chart delineation with illustrations of important personalities.
Author: Charles Jencks
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Architecture
Languages : en
Pages : 154
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Book Description
This classic of prediction, written in 1969, has now been brought up to date, the prophecies judges, and the omens extended to 2030.The success rate of Jencks' forecasts and his method of combining expert prediction with structural analysis make this book an important contribution to the art of conjecture. Not only did he predict the a series of innovations that have changed the world, such as the Internet, but he identified six main architectural traditions that continuously transform over time. This provides a method of gauging what are likely to be the future movements in architecture, a useful and fascinating tool for speculation. No other book of forecasting is like it, a hypertext of retrospection, judgement and further prophecy.
Author: J.N. Bhasin
Publisher: Sagar Publications
ISBN:
Category : Body, Mind & Spirit
Languages : en
Pages : 217
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Book Description
It has been endeavoured to introduce a few specialties in this book. Firstly to discuss for the benefit of the student of astrology a maximum number of diseases under astrological laws. Secondly to supply in support of that discussion as many illustrations from actual life as is possible, with a view to make the subject readily understandable. Thirdly we have tried to place the astrological material in a rational & logical manner, so that the question of health and disease can be tackled in an independent way without being too much subservient to the shlokas of the text. We do meet with shlokas dealing with most of the diseases but there are very few books, if at all, which discuss the “how” and “why” of disease. We have attempted to discuss the constituents of diseases and the astrological factors representing them severely in order that the student can extend the application of the method to new diseases.
Author: J.N. Bhasin
Publisher: Sagar Publications
ISBN:
Category : Body, Mind & Spirit
Languages : en
Pages : 348
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Book Description
Astrology is both a science and an art. It is science in the sense that it is based on the pure science of astronomy and mathematics and an art in the sense that it requires sufficient practice to give adequate results. The mathematical portion of. astrology is comparatively easier, as most of its requirements are already available to us without much labour. Unlike old days, an astrologer is not called upon these days, to work out the longitudes of the heavenly bodies himself, These are easily available in an up-to-date form in modern ephemeris, and only have to be culled out. But the art Portion of astrology requires much time, constant Practice and devoted attention fora correct appraisal of the birth chart.
Author: Nate Silver
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 0143125087
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 577
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Book Description
"One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
Author: Eric Siegel
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119145686
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 368
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Book Description
"Mesmerizing & fascinating..." —The Seattle Post-Intelligencer "The Freakonomics of big data." —Stein Kretsinger, founding executive of Advertising.com Award-winning | Used by over 30 universities | Translated into 9 languages An introduction for everyone. In this rich, fascinating — surprisingly accessible — introduction, leading expert Eric Siegel reveals how predictive analytics (aka machine learning) works, and how it affects everyone every day. Rather than a “how to” for hands-on techies, the book serves lay readers and experts alike by covering new case studies and the latest state-of-the-art techniques. Prediction is booming. It reinvents industries and runs the world. Companies, governments, law enforcement, hospitals, and universities are seizing upon the power. These institutions predict whether you're going to click, buy, lie, or die. Why? For good reason: predicting human behavior combats risk, boosts sales, fortifies healthcare, streamlines manufacturing, conquers spam, optimizes social networks, toughens crime fighting, and wins elections. How? Prediction is powered by the world's most potent, flourishing unnatural resource: data. Accumulated in large part as the by-product of routine tasks, data is the unsalted, flavorless residue deposited en masse as organizations churn away. Surprise! This heap of refuse is a gold mine. Big data embodies an extraordinary wealth of experience from which to learn. Predictive analytics (aka machine learning) unleashes the power of data. With this technology, the computer literally learns from data how to predict the future behavior of individuals. Perfect prediction is not possible, but putting odds on the future drives millions of decisions more effectively, determining whom to call, mail, investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate. In this lucid, captivating introduction — now in its Revised and Updated edition — former Columbia University professor and Predictive Analytics World founder Eric Siegel reveals the power and perils of prediction: What type of mortgage risk Chase Bank predicted before the recession. Predicting which people will drop out of school, cancel a subscription, or get divorced before they even know it themselves. Why early retirement predicts a shorter life expectancy and vegetarians miss fewer flights. Five reasons why organizations predict death — including one health insurance company. How U.S. Bank and Obama for America calculated the way to most strongly persuade each individual. Why the NSA wants all your data: machine learning supercomputers to fight terrorism. How IBM's Watson computer used predictive modeling to answer questions and beat the human champs on TV's Jeopardy! How companies ascertain untold, private truths — how Target figures out you're pregnant and Hewlett-Packard deduces you're about to quit your job. How judges and parole boards rely on crime-predicting computers to decide how long convicts remain in prison. 182 examples from Airbnb, the BBC, Citibank, ConEd, Facebook, Ford, Google, the IRS, LinkedIn, Match.com, MTV, Netflix, PayPal, Pfizer, Spotify, Uber, UPS, Wikipedia, and more. How does predictive analytics work? This jam-packed book satisfies by demystifying the intriguing science under the hood. For future hands-on practitioners pursuing a career in the field, it sets a strong foundation, delivers the prerequisite knowledge, and whets your appetite for more. A truly omnipresent science, predictive analytics constantly affects our daily lives. Whether you are a consumer of it — or consumed by it — get a handle on the power of Predictive Analytics.
Author: John E. Crawford
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Pavements
Languages : en
Pages : 92
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Book Description
This report focuses on the finite element idealization as related to principles of pavement analysis, while other techniques and topics are introduced to provide a complete picture. The topics presented are organized to illustrate the similarities and consequences of using various prediction techniques. These topics include: the theoretical basis of the principal techniques, material models, comparison of analytical and measured results, and the selection of a prediction technique. (Author).
Author: Jean-François Sigrist
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119686717
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 218
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Book Description
Numerical simulation is a technique of major importance in various technical and scientific fields. Used to understand diverse physical phenomena or to design everyday objects, it plays a major role in innovation in the industrial sector. Whilst engineering curricula now include training courses dedicated to it, numerical simulation is still not well-known in some economic sectors, and even less so among the general public. Simulation involves the mathematical modeling of the real world, coupled with the computing power offered by modern technology. Designed to perform virtual experiments, digital simulation can be considered as an "art of prediction". Embellished with a rich iconography and based on the testimony of researchers and engineers, this book shines a light on this little-known art. It is the first of two volumes and focuses on the principles, methods and industrial practice of numerical modeling.
Author: Dan Gardner
Publisher: McClelland & Stewart
ISBN: 0771035217
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 319
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Book Description
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
