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Author: Sami Keskek
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
We investigate whether the reputation-herding theory or the tradeoff theory explains variation in the timing of individual analysts' forecasts. Using forecast accuracy improvements, forecast boldness, and the price impact of forecasts as measures of forecast quality, we find that in the information discovery phase that precedes an earnings announcement event, earlier forecasts have higher quality than later forecasts and find a similar pattern in the information analysis phase that begins with the earnings announcement date. Our findings suggest that consistent with the herding theory, more-capable analysts participate early in discovering and analyzing information and, therefore, earlier forecasts in the information discovery and analysis phases are of higher quality than later forecasts in that phase.
Author: Sami Keskek
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
We investigate whether the reputation-herding theory or the tradeoff theory explains variation in the timing of individual analysts' forecasts. Using forecast accuracy improvements, forecast boldness, and the price impact of forecasts as measures of forecast quality, we find that in the information discovery phase that precedes an earnings announcement event, earlier forecasts have higher quality than later forecasts and find a similar pattern in the information analysis phase that begins with the earnings announcement date. Our findings suggest that consistent with the herding theory, more-capable analysts participate early in discovering and analyzing information and, therefore, earlier forecasts in the information discovery and analysis phases are of higher quality than later forecasts in that phase.
Author: Lise Newman Graham
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Corporate profits
Languages : en
Pages : 334
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Book Description
Author: Ilan Guttman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
Existing literature assumes that the order and timing of analysts' earnings forecasts are determined exogenously. However, analysts choose when to issue their forecasts. This study develops a model that endogenizes the timing decision of analysts and analyzes their equilibrium timing strategies. In the model, analysts face a trade-ocurren; between the timeliness and the precision of their forecasts. The model introduces a timing game with two analysts, derives and analyzes its unique pure strategies equilibrium, and provides new empirical predictions about the precision and timing of analysts' forecasts. The equilibrium has one of two patterns: either the times of the analysts' forecasts cluster, or there is a separation in the times of the forecasts. The less informed and less similar the analysts are, the more likely it is that they forecast at different points in time. All else equal, analysts with a higher precision of initial private information tend to forecast earlier, and analysts with a higher learning ability tend to forecast later.
Author: Yongtae Kim
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 45
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Book Description
This study examines the stock-price reactions to analyst forecast revisions around earnings announcements to test whether pre-announcement forecasts reflect analysts' private information or piggybacking on confounding events and news. We find that management earnings forecasts influence the timing and precision of analyst forecasts. More importantly, evidence suggests that prior studies' finding of weaker (stronger) stock-price responses to forecast revisions in the period immediately after (before) the prior-quarter earnings announcement disappears once management earnings forecasts are controlled for. To the extent that management earnings forecasts are public disclosures, our results suggest that the importance of analysts' information discovery role documented in prior studies is likely to be overstated.
Author: Tanja Klettke
Publisher: Springer Science & Business
ISBN: 3658056347
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 120
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Book Description
Financial analysts provide information in their research reports and thereby help forming expectations of a firm’s future business performance. Thus, it is essential to recognize analysts who provide the most precise forecasts and the accounting literature identifies characteristics that help finding the most accurate analysts. Tanja Klettke detects new relationships and identifies two new determinants of earnings forecast accuracy. These new determinants are an analyst’s “general forecast effort” and the “number of supplementary forecasts”. Within two comprehensive empirical investigations she proves these measures’ power to explain accuracy differences. Tanja Klettke’s research helps investors and researchers to identify more accurate earnings forecasts.
Author: Gordon Douglas Richardson
Publisher: Ann Arbor, Mich. : University Microfilms International
ISBN:
Category : Accounting
Languages : en
Pages : 350
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Book Description
Author: Shu Yeh
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Corporation reports
Languages : en
Pages : 220
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Book Description
Author: Patricia C. O'Brien
Publisher: Forgotten Books
ISBN: 9780666405524
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 74
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Book Description
Excerpt from Analysts' Forecasts as Earnings Expectations Analysts' forecasts of earnings are increasingly used in accounting and finance research as expectations data, to proxy for the unobservable market expectation of a future 'realization. 'since a diverse set of forecasts is available at any time for a given firm's earnings. Composites are used to distill the information from the diverse set into a single expectation. This paper considers the relative merits of several composite forecasts as expectations data. One of the primary results is that the most current forecast available outperforms more commonly used aggregations such as the mean or the median. Mthis result is consistent-with forecasters incorporating information from others' previous predictions into their own. It also suggests that the forecast date, which previous research has largely ignored, is a characteristic relevant for distinguishing better forecasts. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.
Author: Francis A. Lees
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
Author: Orie E. Barron
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
In this study we examine changes in the precision and the commonality of information contained in individual analysts' earnings forecasts, focusing on changes around earnings announcements. Using the empirical proxies suggested by the Barron et al. (1998) model that are based on the across-analyst correlation in forecast errors, we find that the commonality of information among active analysts significantly decreases around earnings announcements. We also find that the idiosyncratic information contained in these individual analysts' forecasts increases significantly immediately after earnings announcements, and this increase is more significant as more analysts revise their forecasts. These results are consistent with theories positing that an important role of accounting releases is to trigger the generation of idiosyncratic information by elite information processors such as financial analysts (Kim and Verrecchia 1994, 1997).
