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Author: Samya Beidas-Strom
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455216755
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 53
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Book Description
This paper presents and estimates a small open economy dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model (DSGE) for the Jordanian economy. The model features nominal and real rigidities, imperfect competition and habit formation in the consumer’s utility function. Oil imports are explicitly modeled in the consumption basket and domestic production. Bayesian estimation methods are employed on quarterly Jordanian data. The model’s properties are described by impulse response analysis of identified structural shocks pertinent to the economy. These properties assess the effectiveness of the pegged exchange rate regime in minimizing inflation and output trade-offs. The estimates of the structural parameters fall within plausible ranges, and simulation results suggest that while the peg amplifies output, consumption and (price and wage) inflation volatility, it offers a relatively low risk premium.
Author: Samya Beidas-Strom
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455216755
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 53
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Book Description
This paper presents and estimates a small open economy dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model (DSGE) for the Jordanian economy. The model features nominal and real rigidities, imperfect competition and habit formation in the consumer’s utility function. Oil imports are explicitly modeled in the consumption basket and domestic production. Bayesian estimation methods are employed on quarterly Jordanian data. The model’s properties are described by impulse response analysis of identified structural shocks pertinent to the economy. These properties assess the effectiveness of the pegged exchange rate regime in minimizing inflation and output trade-offs. The estimates of the structural parameters fall within plausible ranges, and simulation results suggest that while the peg amplifies output, consumption and (price and wage) inflation volatility, it offers a relatively low risk premium.
Author: Mr.Vadim Khramov
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475502354
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
The simulated results of this paper show that New Keynesian DSGE models with capital accumulation can generate substantial persistencies in the dynamics of the main economic variables, due to the stock nature of capital. Empirical estimates on U.S. data from 1960:I to 2008:I show the response of monetary policy to inflation was almost twice lower than traditionally considered, as capital accumulation creates an additional channel of influence through real interest rates in the production sector. Versions of the model with indeterminacy empirically outperform determinate versions. This paper allows for the reconsideration of previous findings and has significant monetary policy implications.
Author: David Colander
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139459058
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
Macroeconomics is evolving in an almost dialectic fashion. The latest evolution is the development of a new synthesis that combines insights of new classical, new Keynesian and real business cycle traditions into a dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that serves as a foundation for thinking about macro policy. That new synthesis has opened up the door to a new antithesis, which is being driven by advances in computing power and analytic techniques. This new synthesis is coalescing around developments in complexity theory, automated general to specific econometric modeling, agent-based models, and non-linear and statistical dynamical models. This book thus provides the reader with an introduction to what might be called a Post Walrasian research program that is developing as the antithesis of the Walrasian DSGE synthesis.
Author: Mr.Pau Rabanal
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451875657
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455208566
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 71
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Book Description
The economy of Jordan was affected by the global crisis. Lower commodity prices helped improve Jordan’s external position. Effective banking supervision has strengthened the capacity of Jordanian banks to withstand shocks. The authorities have implemented prudent fiscal and monetary policies. The medium-term fiscal strategy should be supported by a number of institutional reforms. The fixed exchange rate regime remains important for financial stability. Bank regulation and supervision should continue to focus on preventing excessive risk-taking.
Author: Mr.Jaromir Benes
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475524986
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 59
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Book Description
This paper presents the theoretical structure of MAPMOD, a new IMF model designed to study vulnerabilities associated with excessive credit expansions, and to support macroprudential policy analysis. In MAPMOD, bank loans create purchasing power that facilitates adjustments in the real economy. But excessively large and risky loans can impair balance sheets and sow the seeds of a financial crisis. Banks respond to losses through higher spreads and rapid credit cutbacks, with adverse effects for the real economy. These features allow the model to capture the basic facts of financial cycles. A companion paper studies the simulation properties of MAPMOD.
Author: Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463927258
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
This paper extends the long-run growth model of Esfahani et al. (2009) to a labor exporting country that receives large inflows of external income?the sum of remittances, FDI and general government transfers?from major oil-exporting economies. The theoretical model predicts real oil prices to be one of the main long-run drivers of real output. Using quarterly data between 1979 and 2009 on core macroeconomic variables for Jordan and a number of key foreign variables, we identify two long-run relationships: an output equation as predicted by theory and an equation linking foreign and domestic inflation rates. It is shown that real output in the long run is shaped by: (i) oil prices through their impact on external income and in turn on capital accumulation, and (ii) technological transfers through foreign output. The empirical analysis of the paper confirms the hypothesis that a large share of Jordan's output volatility can be associated with fluctuations in net income received from abroad. External factors, however, cannot be relied upon to provide similar growth stimuli in the future, and therefore it will be important to diversify the sources of growth in order to achieve a high and sustained level of income.
Author: A. Elhiraika
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1137462086
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 359
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Book Description
The role of integration as a catalyst for economic growth, development and insulation from global shocks has made the concept of regional integration even more attractive to states. This books contains compelling arguments and empirical observations that detail some of the key opportunities governments in Africa are pursuing.
Author: Samya Beidas-Strom
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498320503
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 66
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Book Description
We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters. Our findings suggest that not only has output responded differently to shocks due to differing levels of diversification and structural and policy settings, but also the responses to fiscal consolidation differ: Russia would benefit from a smaller state foot-print, while in Saudi Arabia, unless this is accompanied by structural reforms that remove rigidities, output would fall. We also find that lower oil prices need not be bad news given more oil-intensive production structures. However, lower oil prices have hurt these oil producers as their public finances depend heavily on oil, among other factors. Productivity gains accompanied by ambitious structural reforms, along with fiscal and monetary reforms could support these economies to achieve better outcomes when oil prices fall, including via diversifying exports.
Author: Wassara, Samson Samuel
Publisher: CODESRIA
ISBN: 2869785887
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 234
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Book Description
The fate of Sudan, by then the largest country in Africa, was clearly decided when results of the referendum vote were announced in February 2011. Policy makers, scholars and the international community began to grapple with critical issues that might arise after the independence of South Sudan and how different stakeholders were likely to react during the period of uncertainty. Political developments in Sudan were long-term outcomes of post-cold war revolutions in the world system after the Soviet Union collapsed. A domino effect of such events swept across Eastern Europe with some manifestations in the Horn of Africa. The fall of Mengistu Haile Mariam, marked the beginning of the redrawing of the map of Africa and posed a challenge to the long held principle of preservation of colonial borders that had been enshrined in the Charter of the Organisation of African Unity. The precedent set by the independence of Eritrea seemed to encourage southern Sudan to press forward for independence through a two pronged approach of armed struggle and diplomacy led by the Sudan People's Liberation Army/Movement. This book attempts to understand national, regional and continental dimensions of the unresolved issues that could result in the escalation of conflict in the Sudan. It examines internal dynamics of the Sudan after secession of the south and how these dynamics might affect neighbouring countries in the geopolitical regions: the Horn of Africa, the Great Lakes Region and Central Africa. A section of the book is dedicated to dynamics within South Sudan as a new state. Post-conflict South Sudan as country was marked by extreme poverty, lack of infrastructure and prevalence of inter-communal armed violence. This book proposes possible policies to prevent the country from descending into a state of economic and social chaos. The book provides the argument that equitable and rational transformative socio-economic programmes and policies could greatly reduce potentials for conflict. This book calls on policy makers to pursue policies that could lead to concrete projects planned to alleviate poverty and provision of basic social services such as education, health, and safe water. The book comes to the conclusion that political stability will depend on collective actions of stakeholders to ensure that peace prevails both in the north and the south to guarantee human security in the region.
