Economic Modeling and Inference

Economic Modeling and Inference PDF Author: Bent Jesper Christensen
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 9780691120591
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 508

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Book Description
Economic Modeling and Inference takes econometrics to a new level by demonstrating how to combine modern economic theory with the latest statistical inference methods to get the most out of economic data. This graduate-level textbook draws applications from both microeconomics and macroeconomics, paying special attention to financial and labor economics, with an emphasis throughout on what observations can tell us about stochastic dynamic models of rational optimizing behavior and equilibrium. Bent Jesper Christensen and Nicholas Kiefer show how parameters often thought estimable in applications are not identified even in simple dynamic programming models, and they investigate the roles of extensions, including measurement error, imperfect control, and random utility shocks for inference. When all implications of optimization and equilibrium are imposed in the empirical procedures, the resulting estimation problems are often nonstandard, with the estimators exhibiting nonregular asymptotic behavior such as short-ranked covariance, superconsistency, and non-Gaussianity. Christensen and Kiefer explore these properties in detail, covering areas including job search models of the labor market, asset pricing, option pricing, marketing, and retirement planning. Ideal for researchers and practitioners as well as students, Economic Modeling and Inference uses real-world data to illustrate how to derive the best results using a combination of theory and cutting-edge econometric techniques. Covers identification and estimation of dynamic programming models Treats sources of error--measurement error, random utility, and imperfect control Features financial applications including asset pricing, option pricing, and optimal hedging Describes labor applications including job search, equilibrium search, and retirement Illustrates the wide applicability of the approach using micro, macro, and marketing examples

The 4% Solution

The 4% Solution PDF Author: The Bush Institute
Publisher: Currency
ISBN: 0307986144
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 370

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Book Description
Foreword by President George W. Bush With contributions from world renowned economists and Nobel prizewinners, The 4% Solution is a blueprint for restoring America’s economic health The United States is reaching a pivotal point in its economic history. Millions of Americans owe more on their homes than they are worth, long-term unemployment is alarmingly high, and the Congressional Budget Office is projecting a sustainable growth rate of only 2.3%—a full percentage point below the average for the past sixty years. Unless a turnaround comes quickly, the United States could be mired in debt for years to come and millions of Americans will be pushed to the sidelines of the economy. The 4% Solution offers clear and unflinching ideas on how to revive America’s economy. It sets a positive economic goal and asks some of the top economic minds on how to achieve it. With a focus on removing government constraints, The 4% Solution defines the policies that will allow Americans to save, invest, and create the jobs that the United States needs. The 4% Solution draws on the best minds in the business, including five Nobel laureates: · Robert E. Lucas, Jr., on the history and future of economic growth · Gary S. Becker on why we need immigrants in order to grow · Edward Prescott on the cost (to growth) of the welfare state · Vernon Smith on why housing leads us into and out of recessions · Myron Scholes on why we need to innovate in order to grow the economy

Economic Modeling and Inference

Economic Modeling and Inference PDF Author: Bent Jesper Christensen
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 9780691120591
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 508

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Book Description
Economic Modeling and Inference takes econometrics to a new level by demonstrating how to combine modern economic theory with the latest statistical inference methods to get the most out of economic data. This graduate-level textbook draws applications from both microeconomics and macroeconomics, paying special attention to financial and labor economics, with an emphasis throughout on what observations can tell us about stochastic dynamic models of rational optimizing behavior and equilibrium. Bent Jesper Christensen and Nicholas Kiefer show how parameters often thought estimable in applications are not identified even in simple dynamic programming models, and they investigate the roles of extensions, including measurement error, imperfect control, and random utility shocks for inference. When all implications of optimization and equilibrium are imposed in the empirical procedures, the resulting estimation problems are often nonstandard, with the estimators exhibiting nonregular asymptotic behavior such as short-ranked covariance, superconsistency, and non-Gaussianity. Christensen and Kiefer explore these properties in detail, covering areas including job search models of the labor market, asset pricing, option pricing, marketing, and retirement planning. Ideal for researchers and practitioners as well as students, Economic Modeling and Inference uses real-world data to illustrate how to derive the best results using a combination of theory and cutting-edge econometric techniques. Covers identification and estimation of dynamic programming models Treats sources of error--measurement error, random utility, and imperfect control Features financial applications including asset pricing, option pricing, and optimal hedging Describes labor applications including job search, equilibrium search, and retirement Illustrates the wide applicability of the approach using micro, macro, and marketing examples

An Econometric Model of the US Economy

An Econometric Model of the US Economy PDF Author: John J. Heim
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319506811
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 480

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Book Description
This book explores the US economy from 1960 to 2010 using a more Keynsian, Cowles model approach, which the author argues has substantial advantages over the vector autoregression (VAR) and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models used almost exclusively today. Heim presents a robust argument in favor of the Cowles model as an answer to the pressing, unresolved methodological question of how to accurately model the macroeconomy so that policymakers can reliably use these models to assist their decision making. Thirty-eight behavioral equations, describing determinants of variables such as consumption, taxes, and government spending, are connected by eighteen identities to construct a comprehensive model of the real US economy that Heim then tests across four different time periods to ensure that results are consistent. This comprehensive demonstration of the value of a long-ignored model provides overwhelming evidence that the more Keynesian (Cowles) structural models outperform VAR and DSGE, and therefore should be the models of choice in future macroeconomic studies.

Economics Rules

Economics Rules PDF Author: Dani Rodrik
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 0198736894
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 268

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Book Description
A leading economist trains a lens on his own discipline to uncover when it fails and when it works.

The Brookings Model

The Brookings Model PDF Author: Gary Fromm
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780444106230
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 679

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Book Description


Failure by Design

Failure by Design PDF Author: Josh Bivens
Publisher: Cornell University Press
ISBN: 0801461138
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 121

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Book Description
In Failure by Design, the Economic Policy Institute’s Josh Bivens takes a step back from the acclaimed State of Working America series, building on its wealth of data to relate a compelling narrative of the U.S. economy’s struggle to emerge from the Great Recession of 2008. Bivens explains the causes and impact on working Americans of the most catastrophic economic policy failure since the 1920s. As outlined clearly here, economic growth since the late 1970s has been slow and inequitably distributed, largely as a result of poor policy choices. These choices only got worse in the 2000s, leading to an anemic economic expansion. What growth we did see in the economy was fueled by staggering increases in private-sector debt and a housing bubble that artificially inflated wealth by trillions of dollars. As had been predicted, the bursting of the housing bubble had disastrous consequences for the broader economy, spurring a financial crisis and a rise in joblessness that dwarfed those resulting from any recession since the Great Depression. The fallout from the Great Recession makes it near certain that there will be yet another lost decade of income growth for typical families, whose incomes had not been boosted by the previous decade’s sluggish and localized economic expansion. In its broad narrative of how the economy has failed to deliver for most Americans over much of the past three decades, Failure by Design also offers compelling graphic evidence on jobs, incomes, wages, and other measures of economic well-being most relevant to low- and middle-income workers. Josh Bivens tracks these trends carefully, giving a lesson in economic history that is readable yet rigorous in its analysis. Intended as both a stand-alone volume and a companion to the new State of Working America website that presents all of the data underlying this cogent analysis, Failure by Design will become required reading as a road map to the economic problems that confront working Americans.

Game Theory and Economic Modelling

Game Theory and Economic Modelling PDF Author: David M. Kreps
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0198283814
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 204

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Book Description
Comprises lectures given at Tel Aviv University and Oxford University in 1990.

Economic Turbulence

Economic Turbulence PDF Author: Clair Brown
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226076342
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 211

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Book Description
Every day, in every sector of our economy, a business shuts down while another starts up, jobs are created while others are cut, and workers are hired while others are laid off. This constant flux, or turbulence, is a defining characteristic of our free market system, yet it mostly inspires angst about unemployment, loss of earnings, and the overall competitiveness of corporations. But is this endless cycle of fluctuation really so bad for America? Might something positive be going on in the economy as a result of it? In this penetrating work, three esteemed economists seek to answer these questions by exploring the real impact of volatility on American workers and businesses alike. According to the authors, while any number of events--shifts in consumer demand, changes in technology, mergers and acquisitions, or increased competition--can contribute to economic turbulence, our economy as a whole is, by and large, stronger for it, because these processes of creation and destruction make it more flexible and adaptable. The authors also acknowledge and document the adverse consequences of this turbulence on different groups of workers and firms and discuss the resulting policy challenges. Basing their argument on an up-close look into the dealings and practices of five key industries—financial services, retail food services, trucking, semiconductors, and software—the authors demonstrate the positive effects of turbulence on career paths, employee earnings, and firm performance. The first substantial attempt to disentangle and make clear the complexities of this phenomenon in the United States, Economic Turbulence will be viewed as a major achievement and the centerpiece of any discussion on the subject for years to come.

Economic Transfers in the United States

Economic Transfers in the United States PDF Author: Marilyn Moon
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226535061
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402

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Book Description
In recent years the definition of an economic transfer—a payment to an individual or institution that does not arise out of current productive activity—has been subject to even wider interpretation. This volume addresses that trend and introduces new methods of measuring transfers in the American economy. Social security, private pension benefits, housing, and health care are traditional kinds of transfers. Accurate measurements of the degree and effect of these and of other, newly interpreted transfers are vital to economic policy making. Though this volume is not directly concerned with policy-making issues, it does impinge on many areas of current public concern; methods of transfer valuation, for example, may affect how we view the status of the aged. Researchers, policy analysts, and those who compile statistics on which social programs are based on will value the diverse approaches of these ten papers and their accompanying comments. Taken together the essays give great insight into the complexities of defining transfers and provide a wealth of new analytic methods. They were developed from material presented at the Income and Wealth Conference on Social Accounting for Transfers held at Madison, Wisconsin, in 1982.

Introduction to Economic Analysis

Introduction to Economic Analysis PDF Author: R. Preston McAfee
Publisher: Orange Grove Texts Plus
ISBN: 9781616100414
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
This book presents introductory economics material using standard mathematical tools, including calculus. It is designed for a relatively sophisticated undergraduate who has not taken a basic university course in economics. The book can easily serve as an intermediate microeconomics text. The focus of this book is on the conceptual tools. Contents: 1) What is Economics? 2) Supply and Demand. 3) The US Economy. 4) Producer Theory. 5) Consumer Theory. 6) Market Imperfections. 7) Strategic Behavior.