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Author: Wen He
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 39
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Book Description
Kothari, Lewellen and Warner (2006) document that in the U.S. market aggregate earnings changes are negatively related to contemporaneous market returns. This is puzzling given the well-documented evidence that firm-level earnings changes are positively related to stock returns. In this study we use a sample of 28 countries to provide international evidence on this important issue. In pooled cross-country and time-series regressions, we find that aggregate earnings changes are positively associated with contemporaneous market returns. When we run time-series regressions of market returns on aggregate earnings changes for each country, we find only four countries have negative coefficients for aggregate earnings changes and none of these negative coefficients are statistically significant. This evidence contrasts the U.S. evidence. Furthermore aggregate earnings exhibits substantial persistence, suggesting current earnings convey information about future earnings. Finally we find that the earnings-returns relation at aggregate becomes less positive in countries with more transparent accounting disclosure. This result supports the argument proposed by Sadka and Sadka (2009) that predictability of aggregate earnings leads to the negative relation between aggregate earnings and market returns in the U.S.
Author: Wen He
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 39
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Book Description
Kothari, Lewellen and Warner (2006) document that in the U.S. market aggregate earnings changes are negatively related to contemporaneous market returns. This is puzzling given the well-documented evidence that firm-level earnings changes are positively related to stock returns. In this study we use a sample of 28 countries to provide international evidence on this important issue. In pooled cross-country and time-series regressions, we find that aggregate earnings changes are positively associated with contemporaneous market returns. When we run time-series regressions of market returns on aggregate earnings changes for each country, we find only four countries have negative coefficients for aggregate earnings changes and none of these negative coefficients are statistically significant. This evidence contrasts the U.S. evidence. Furthermore aggregate earnings exhibits substantial persistence, suggesting current earnings convey information about future earnings. Finally we find that the earnings-returns relation at aggregate becomes less positive in countries with more transparent accounting disclosure. This result supports the argument proposed by Sadka and Sadka (2009) that predictability of aggregate earnings leads to the negative relation between aggregate earnings and market returns in the U.S.
Author: Lakshmanan Shivakumar
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 16
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Book Description
Anilowski, Feng and Skinner (Journal of Accounting and Economics, 2006, this issue) examine the relationship between aggregate earnings guidance, aggregate earnings news and market returns. They provide evidence that changes in aggregate proportions of downward or upward earnings guidance are associated with aggregate earnings news and weakly associated with market returns. However, the study is unable to establish causality or the precise nature of the relationship between aggregate earnings guidance and market returns. To better understand the relationship, this paper analyses the relation between aggregate earnings, stock market returns and the macroeconomy. I empirically document that aggregate earnings primarily contain information about future inflation. This inflation information in aggregate earnings causes aggregate earnings to be negatively correlated with stock returns. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research.
Author: Debjeet Pradhan
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Cash flow
Languages : en
Pages : 158
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Book Description
In this study, I examine the properties of positive and negative aggregate earnings changes and how they relate to contemporaneous market returns. I find that the negative relationship between aggregate earnings news and market returns, documented in Kothari et al. (2006) and Cready and Gurun (2010), is driven primarily by bad news observations. I also find that negative aggregate earnings changes mean revert in the two quarters following the negative aggregate earnings changes quarter. Market returns increase contemporaneously with negative aggregate earnings news, suggesting that investors incorporate the expectation of mean reversion for negative aggregate earnings changes in subsequent quarters. As a result, the aggregate earnings news market returns relationship is negative when aggregate earnings news is negative. When aggregate earnings news is positive, I find that market returns are positively associated with aggregate earnings news. Since aggregate earnings news consists of cash flow and discount rate news components, each having an opposite direction effect on market return, the cash flow news component dominates the discount rate news component when aggregate earnings news is positive, while the discount rate news component dominates the cash flow news component when aggregate earnings news is negative.
Author: Peter Douglas Easton
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780646086972
Category : Stocks
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
Author: Carol Anilowski Cain
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 49
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Book Description
We investigate whether earnings guidance affects aggregate stock returns through its effects on expectations about overall earnings performance and/or aggregate expected returns. We find that aggregate guidance, especially relative levels of quarterly downward guidance, is associated with analyst- and time-series-based measures of aggregate earnings news. We find more modest evidence that guidance, again, largely downward guidance, is associated with market returns - market returns appear to respond to guidance toward the end of each calendar quarter, when most earnings preannouncements are released, and there is some evidence that firm-level guidance affects market returns in short windows around its release.
Author: Xanthi Gkougkousi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
I examine the previously unexplored relation between aggregate earnings changes and corporate bond market returns. I find that aggregate earnings changes have a negative relation to investment-grade corporate bond market returns and a positive relation to high-yield corporate bond market returns. The aggregate earnings-returns relation is lower (i.e., less positive or more negative) for bonds with higher credit ratings and longer maturities. Further, I show that the aggregate earnings-returns relation is driven by both the expected and the news component of aggregate earnings changes. The expected component is negatively related to expected returns, and the news component is positively related to cash flow news and changes in nominal interest rates, and negatively related to changes in default premia. My results contribute to the understanding of the role of earnings in corporate bond markets as well as the macroeconomic role of accounting information.
Author: Yuto Yoshinaga
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This study aims to clarify the mechanism of the surprising earnings-returns relation observed at the aggregate level by offering evidence from Japan. Unlike firm-level evidence, recent Macro-Accounting research reports that when earnings changes and stock returns of individual firms are cross-sectionally aggregated, a significantly positive relation cannot be observed in the U.S. market. To explain this puzzling finding, Kothari et al. (2006) propose a hypothesis that negative effects of changes in the market-wide cost of capital cancel out positive effects of aggregate earnings changes on aggregate stock returns. Although this hypothesis is empirically supported in the U.S market, the validity of this hypothesis has not been sufficiently investigated in the Japanese market. Thus, we test the hypothesis and find it robustly supported in Japan. Our results show that positive effects of aggregate earnings changes on aggregate stock returns are canceled out by the effects of the market-wide cost of capital. We also find that these canceling effects stem from the market risk premium in Japan. An additional test we conduct shows that expected aggregate earnings changes and changes in the market risk premium are not negatively related. This result indirectly supports the hypothesis proposed by Kothari et al. (2006), because it undermines the competing hypothesis proposed by Sadka and Sadka (2009). These results should contribute to the related research areas, Macro-Accounting and accounting research on the cost of capital.
Author: Jonathan Lewellen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
We study the stock market reaction to aggregate earnings news. Previous research shows that, for individual firms, stock prices react positively to earnings news but require several quarters to fully reflect the information in earnings. We find that the relation between returns and earnings is substantially different in aggregate data. First, returns are unrelated to past earnings, suggesting that prices neither underreact nor overreact to aggregate earnings news. Second, aggregate returns are negatively correlated with concurrent earnings; over the last 30 years, stock prices increased 6.5% in quarters with negative earnings growth and only 1.9% otherwise. This finding suggests that earnings and discount rates move together over time, and provides new evidence that discount-rate shocks explain a significant fraction of aggregate stock returns.
Author: Xinmei Xie
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Accounting
Languages : en
Pages : 282
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Book Description
Several studies have explored the role of accounting earnings in the capital market at the aggregate level following Kothari et al (2006). However, it is unclear whether accounting earnings are informative as to the market price variations at the aggregate level. In this study, I use aggregate analysts' revisions of earnings forecasts as a proxy for aggregate earnings surprises and explore the relation between market returns and the beliefs of an important user group (analysts) as to future earnings. I find that (1) the direction of analysts' revisions is predictable to some extent with market returns but the magnitude of revisions is not; (2) aggregate analysts' revisions are significantly positively correlated with contemporaneous market returns; (3) there is a weak and negative predictive relation between aggregate analysts' revisions and future market returns. This study not only sheds light on the role of accounting earnings in the capital market but also improves our understanding of financial analysts' role in the stock market.
Author: William M. Cready
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
A recent analysis by Kothari, Lewellen and Warner(2006) report negative relations between aggregate earnings surprise and market return in quarterly earnings disclosure and reporting periods and no evidence of a positive relation between aggregate earnings and market return in any post-disclosure quarters. In this analysis we develop approaches aimed at better isolating aggregate earning's news component and find strong evidence of a positive relation between aggregate earnings surprise and return in the quarter following the earnings disclosure quarter. This pattern is consistent with the market not fully incorporating discount rate shock and cash flow implications of aggregate earnings in the disclosure period.
