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Author: David F. Hendry
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262582421
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 236
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Book Description
How to interpret and evaluate economic forecasts and the uncertainties inherent in them.
Author: David F. Hendry
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262582421
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 236
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Book Description
How to interpret and evaluate economic forecasts and the uncertainties inherent in them.
Author: Graham Elliott
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400880890
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 567
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Book Description
A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike
Author: Graham Elliott
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0444627405
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 667
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Book Description
The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 140517191X
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 616
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Book Description
A Companion to Economic Forecasting provides an accessible and comprehensive account of recent developments in economic forecasting. Each of the chapters has been specially written by an expert in the field, bringing together in a single volume a range of contrasting approaches and views. Uniquely surveying forecasting in a single volume, the Companion provides a comprehensive account of the leading approaches and modeling strategies that are routinely employed.
Author: Matthew L. Higgins
Publisher: W.E. Upjohn Institute
ISBN: 0880993936
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 182
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Book Description
The book's contributors assess the performance of economic forecasting methods, argue that data can be better exploited through model and forecast combination, and advocate for models that are adaptive and perform well in the presence of nonlinearity and structural change.
Author: Peter Fuleky
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030311503
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 716
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Book Description
This book surveys big data tools used in macroeconomic forecasting and addresses related econometric issues, including how to capture dynamic relationships among variables; how to select parsimonious models; how to deal with model uncertainty, instability, non-stationarity, and mixed frequency data; and how to evaluate forecasts, among others. Each chapter is self-contained with references, and provides solid background information, while also reviewing the latest advances in the field. Accordingly, the book offers a valuable resource for researchers, professional forecasters, and students of quantitative economics.
Author: N. Carnot
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230005810
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 335
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Book Description
Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. In addition, the book addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts (accuracy, communication challenges) and their policy implications. A tour of the economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided.
Author: Eduard Jan Bomhoff
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 242
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Book Description
This text summarizes the important new thinking on financial market forecasting and on the statistical modeling of non-stationary series in a clear and readable manner. The emphasis throughout is on real-life examples using data from a wide variety of countries and sources.
Author: Wang, Jue
Publisher: IGI Global
ISBN: 1615206302
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 405
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Book Description
With the rapid development of economic globalization and information technology, the field of economic forecasting continues its expeditious advancement, providing business and government with applicable technologies. This book discusses various business intelligence techniques including neural networks, support vector machine, genetic programming, clustering analysis, TEI@I, fuzzy systems, text mining, and many more. It serves as a valuable reference for professionals and researchers interested in BI technologies and their practical applications in economic forecasting, as well as policy makers in business organizations and governments.
Author: Eric Ghysels
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0190622016
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 617
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Book Description
Economic forecasting is a key ingredient of decision making in the public and private sectors. This book provides the necessary tools to solve real-world forecasting problems using time-series methods. It targets undergraduate and graduate students as well as researchers in public and private institutions interested in applied economic forecasting.
