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Author: George W. Evans
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789524620215
Category : Interest rates
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
Tiivistelmä: Adaptiivinen oppiminen ja rahapolitiikan muotoilu.
Author: George W. Evans
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789524620215
Category : Interest rates
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
Tiivistelmä: Adaptiivinen oppiminen ja rahapolitiikan muotoilu.
Author: William A. Branch
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 9
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Book Description
Author: Allan Dizioli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
This paper estimates a standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model that includes a wage and price Phillip's curves with different expectation formation processes for Brazil and the USA. Other than the standard rational expectation process, we also use a limited rationality process, the adaptive learning model. In this context, we show that the separate inclusion of a labor market in the model helps to anchor inflation even in a situation of adaptive expectations, a positive output gap and inflation above target. The estimation results show that the adaptive learning model does a better job in fitting the data in both Brazil and the USA. In addition, the estimation shows that expectations are more backward-looking and started to drift away sooner in 2021 in Brazil than in the USA. We then conduct optimal policy exercises that prescribe early monetary policy tightening in the context of positive output gaps and inflation far above the central bank target.
Author: Pisut Kulthanavit
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Monetary policy
Languages : en
Pages : 180
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Book Description
Author: Yu-Chin Chen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Incorporating adaptive learning into an open-economy DSGE model, we examine how monetary policy rules should adjust when agents' information set deviates from that assumed under the rational expectations paradigm. We find that when agents observe current shocks but don't know the parameters governing key macroeconomic dynamics, the resulting distortion is small and the preferred policy under rational expectations works well. However, the welfare cost of imperfect knowledge becomes quite severe when agents also have to learn about the structural shocks to the economy. Monetary policy can play a significant role in mitigating distortions associated with this form of imperfect knowledge.
Author: Bruce J. Preston
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 185
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Book Description
Author: Fabio Milani
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Due to the existence of imperfect information, central banks need to monitor a large variety of data series. This paper provides an attempt to model monetary policy-making in a large information environment. With a large information set, model uncertainty is likely to be very pervasive. We propose to model model uncertainty by means of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). We discuss some advantages of this technique over robust control or mere model selection. Parameters' estimates and models are updated over time through adaptive learning. In this enriched framework, we try to give an explanation of central banks' observed monetary policy inertia.
Author: Vítor Gaspar
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Author: Vítor Gaspar
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
Author: Alberto Locarno
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Monetary policy
Languages : it
Pages : 70
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Book Description
