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Author: Prem Kumar Sehgal
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 385
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Book Description
The main objective of this thesis is the development of a system of techniques for management planning and the control of major project contracts. The present study treats the probabilistic aspects of planning and proposes an approach to analyse cost/time risk associated with capital project contracts. The techniques developed fall into two classifications: 1. Risk quantification (during planning). 2. Use of quantified risk and information theory in the prediction of the completion time and the cost of the project. The extensive literature relating to management Planning and control techniques is critically reviewed. Simulation models are developed to find the critical indices of activities, and the completion time distribution of the project. Effects of network structure and activity time distribution on critical indices and completion time distributions are investigated. Possible applications of these risk quantification techniques are described. A technique making use of networks and Monte Carlo simulation is suggested for the quantification of risk in project expenditure when activity times are uncertain. These expenditure curves can be used to predict the expenditure for future similar kinds of projects. The risk associated with the uncertainty of completion times is quantified by Monte Carlo simulation and used along with information theory to predict the completion date of a project. Similarly, an algorithm to predict the final cost of a project is proposed. Validation and implementation of developed techniques are discussed and compared with results obtained from analytical techniques for suitably simplified case studies.
Author: Prem Kumar Sehgal
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 385
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Book Description
The main objective of this thesis is the development of a system of techniques for management planning and the control of major project contracts. The present study treats the probabilistic aspects of planning and proposes an approach to analyse cost/time risk associated with capital project contracts. The techniques developed fall into two classifications: 1. Risk quantification (during planning). 2. Use of quantified risk and information theory in the prediction of the completion time and the cost of the project. The extensive literature relating to management Planning and control techniques is critically reviewed. Simulation models are developed to find the critical indices of activities, and the completion time distribution of the project. Effects of network structure and activity time distribution on critical indices and completion time distributions are investigated. Possible applications of these risk quantification techniques are described. A technique making use of networks and Monte Carlo simulation is suggested for the quantification of risk in project expenditure when activity times are uncertain. These expenditure curves can be used to predict the expenditure for future similar kinds of projects. The risk associated with the uncertainty of completion times is quantified by Monte Carlo simulation and used along with information theory to predict the completion date of a project. Similarly, an algorithm to predict the final cost of a project is proposed. Validation and implementation of developed techniques are discussed and compared with results obtained from analytical techniques for suitably simplified case studies.
Author: Wolfgang Gaul
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
Author: Klaus Neumann
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642615155
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 250
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Book Description
Project planning, scheduling, and control are regularly used in business and the service sector of an economy to accomplish outcomes with limited resources under critical time constraints. To aid in solving these problems, network-based planning methods have been developed that now exist in a wide variety of forms, cf. Elmaghraby (1977) and Moder et al. (1983). The so-called "classical" project networks, which are used in the network techniques CPM and PERT and which represent acyclic weighted directed graphs, are able to describe only projects whose evolution in time is uniquely specified in advance. Here every event of the project is realized exactly once during a single project execution and it is not possible to return to activities previously carried out (that is, no feedback is permitted). Many practical projects, however, do not meet those conditions. Consider, for example, a production process where some parts produced by a machine may be poorly manufactured. If an inspection shows that a part does not conform to certain specifications, it must be repaired or replaced by a new item. This means that we have to return to a preceding stage of the production process. In other words, there is feedback. Note that the result of the inspection is that a certain percentage of the parts tested do not conform. That is, there is a positive probability (strictly less than 1) that any part is defective.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780387526645
Category : Network analysis (Planning)
Languages : en
Pages : 237
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Book Description
Author: S.M. Lee
Publisher: Springer
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 336
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Book Description
Author: Oliver C. Ibe
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118092988
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 263
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Book Description
An interdisciplinary approach to understanding queueing and graphical networks In today's era of interdisciplinary studies and research activities, network models are becoming increasingly important in various areas where they have not regularly been used. Combining techniques from stochastic processes and graph theory to analyze the behavior of networks, Fundamentals of Stochastic Networks provides an interdisciplinary approach by including practical applications of these stochastic networks in various fields of study, from engineering and operations management to communications and the physical sciences. The author uniquely unites different types of stochastic, queueing, and graphical networks that are typically studied independently of each other. With balanced coverage, the book is organized into three succinct parts: Part I introduces basic concepts in probability and stochastic processes, with coverage on counting, Poisson, renewal, and Markov processes Part II addresses basic queueing theory, with a focus on Markovian queueing systems and also explores advanced queueing theory, queueing networks, and approximations of queueing networks Part III focuses on graphical models, presenting an introduction to graph theory along with Bayesian, Boolean, and random networks The author presents the material in a self-contained style that helps readers apply the presented methods and techniques to science and engineering applications. Numerous practical examples are also provided throughout, including all related mathematical details. Featuring basic results without heavy emphasis on proving theorems, Fundamentals of Stochastic Networks is a suitable book for courses on probability and stochastic networks, stochastic network calculus, and stochastic network optimization at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. The book also serves as a reference for researchers and network professionals who would like to learn more about the general principles of stochastic networks.
Author: Philipp Melchiors
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319045407
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 216
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Book Description
This book deals with dynamic and stochastic methods for multi-project planning. Based on the idea of using queueing networks for the analysis of dynamic-stochastic multi-project environments this book addresses two problems: detailed scheduling of project activities, and integrated order acceptance and capacity planning. In an extensive simulation study, the book thoroughly investigates existing scheduling policies. To obtain optimal and near optimal scheduling policies new models and algorithms are proposed based on the theory of Markov decision processes and Approximate Dynamic programming. Then the book presents a new model for the effective computation of optimal policies based on a Markov decision process. Finally, the book provides insights into the structure of optimal policies.
Author: Richard Serfozo
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461214823
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 312
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Book Description
Beginning with Jackson networks and ending with spatial queuing systems, this book describes several basic stochastic network processes, with the focus on network processes that have tractable expressions for the equilibrium probability distribution of the numbers of units at the stations. Intended for graduate students and researchers in engineering, science and mathematics interested in the basics of stochastic networks that have been developed over the last twenty years, the text assumes a graduate course in stochastic processes without measure theory, emphasising multi-dimensional Markov processes. Alongside self-contained material on point processes involving real analysis, the book also contains complete introductions to reversible Markov processes, Palm probabilities for stationary systems, Little laws for queuing systems and space-time Poisson processes.
Author: Frank B. Alt
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0387399348
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 428
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Book Description
A Symposium was held on February 25, 2006 in honor of the 80th birthday of Saul I. Gass and his major contributions to the field of operations research over 50 years. This volume includes articles from each of the Symposium speakers plus 16 other articles from friends, colleagues, and former students. Each contributor offers a forward-looking perspective on the future development of the field.
Author: M. M. Nkasu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
