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Author: Mr. Tobias Adrian
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616356537
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 61
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Book Description
We develop a microfounded New Keynesian model to analyze monetary policy and financial stability issues in open economies with financial fragilities and weakly anchored inflation expectations. We show that foreign exchange intervention (FXI) and capital flow management tools (CFMs) can improve monetary policy tradeoffs under some conditions, including by reducing the need for procyclical tightening in response to capital outflow pressures. Moreover, they can be used in a preemptive way to reduce the risk of a “sudden stop” through curbing a buildup in leverage. While these tools can materially improve welfare, mainly by dampening inefficient fluctuations in risk premia, our analysis also highlights potential limitations, including the possibility that their deployment may forestall needed adjustment in the external balance. Finally, our results also emphasize the power of FXIs to provide domestic stimulus in a liquidity trap.
Author: Mr. Tobias Adrian
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616356537
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 61
Get Book Here
Book Description
We develop a microfounded New Keynesian model to analyze monetary policy and financial stability issues in open economies with financial fragilities and weakly anchored inflation expectations. We show that foreign exchange intervention (FXI) and capital flow management tools (CFMs) can improve monetary policy tradeoffs under some conditions, including by reducing the need for procyclical tightening in response to capital outflow pressures. Moreover, they can be used in a preemptive way to reduce the risk of a “sudden stop” through curbing a buildup in leverage. While these tools can materially improve welfare, mainly by dampening inefficient fluctuations in risk premia, our analysis also highlights potential limitations, including the possibility that their deployment may forestall needed adjustment in the external balance. Finally, our results also emphasize the power of FXIs to provide domestic stimulus in a liquidity trap.
Author: Mr.Tobias Adrian
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513549669
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
Many central banks have relied on a range of policy tools, including foreign exchange intervention (FXI) and capital flow management tools (CFMs), to mitigate the effects of volatile capital flows on their economies. We develop an empirically-oriented New Keynesian model to evaluate and quantify how using multiple policy tools can potentially improve monetary policy tradeoffs. Our model embeds nonlinear balance sheet channels and includes a range of empirically-relevant frictions. We show that FXI and CFMs may improve policy tradeoffs under certain conditions, especially for economies with less well-anchored inflation expectations, substantial foreign currency mismatch, and that are more vulnerable to shocks likely to induce capital outflows and exchange rate pressures.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781513558769
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 54
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Book Description
Policymakers often face difficult tradeoffs in pursuing domestic and external stabilization objectives. The paper reflects staff’s work to advance the understanding of the policy options and tradeoffs available to policymakers in a systematic and analytical way. The paper recognizes that the optimal path of the IPF tools depends on structural characteristics and fiscal policies. The operational implications of IPF findings require careful consideration. Developing safeguards to minimize the risk of inappropriate use of IPF policies will be essential. Staff remains guided by the Fund’s Institutional View (IV) on the Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows.
Author: Mr. Tobias Adrian
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616359706
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 99
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Book Description
This paper jointly analyzes the optimal conduct of monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, fiscal policy, macroprudential policy, and capital flow management. This policy analysis is based on an estimated medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the world economy, featuring a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensive macrofinancial linkages with endogenous risk, and diverse spillover transmission channels. In the pursuit of inflation and output stabilization objectives, it is optimal to adjust all policies in response to domestic and global financial cycle upturns and downturns when feasible—including foreign exchange intervention and capital flow management under some conditions—to widely varying degrees depending on the structural characteristics of the economy. The framework is applied empirically to four small open advanced and emerging market economies.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
This guidance note provides operational guidance on the Fund’s engagement with small developing states (SDS). It highlights the unique economic characteristics and constraints facing SDS, notably in a more shock-prone world. Building on advice that applies to the full membership, the note explains how the characteristics of SDS shape Fund surveillance, financial support and program design, capacity development (CD), and collaboration with other institutions and donors. The note updates the previous version that was published in December 2017.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
Vietnam: Selected Issues
Author: Mr. Andrew Berg
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 123
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Book Description
This paper presents a semi-structural macroeconomic model aimed at facilitating policy analysis and forecasting, primarily in countries with imperfect capital mobility and hybrid monetary policy regimes. Compared to earlier gap-trend projection models, the Forecasting Model of Internal and External Balance (FINEX) contains three main innovations: it accentuates external and internal balances; explicitly incorporates fiscal policy; and partly endogenizes the main trends. FINEX thus covers a broad set of policy instruments, including foreign exchange interventions (FXI), capital flow management measures (CFM), as well as common fiscal policy instruments. The model incorporates insights from the recent DSGE literature, while maintaining a more accessible gap-trend structure that lends itself to practical policy applications. While the paper refrains from drawing broad policy lessons, it emphasizes the model's ability to interpret recent data in terms of structural shocks and policy responses, thereby aiding policymakers in constructing coherent economic narratives and considering alternative scenarios.
Author: Roberto Chang
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 83
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Book Description
We study capital controls on outflows (CCOs) in situations of macroeconomic and financial distress. We present novel empirical evidence indicating that CCO implementation is associated with crises and declines in GDP growth. We then develop a theoretical framework that is consistent with such empirical findings and also yields policy and welfare lessons. The theory features costly coordination failures by foreign investors which can sometimes be avoided by suitably tailored CCOs. The benefits of CCOs as coordination devices can make them optimal even if CCOs entail deadweight losses; if the latter are large, however, CCOs are detrimental for welfare. We show that optimal CCOs can suffer from time inconsistency, and also how political opportunism may limit CCO policy. Hence government credibility and reputation building emerge as critical for the successful implementation of CCOs.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 55
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Book Description
Philippines: Selected Issues
Author: Ms. Maria-Angels Oliva
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 45
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Book Description
In a 157 emerging markets and developing countries sample, remittances continue to grow fast, outpacing other financial inflows (as a share of GDP), particularly in Asia. Without alternative policy instruments, foreign exchange interventions (FXIs) have often been the authorities’ go-to tool to manage the short-term effects of these remittance inflows. However, this practice comes at a cost. This paper shows that FXIs are quick, temporary solutions that often may hinder the development of the recipient country’s financial sector and may not support financial stability over the medium term. The analysis suggests that FXIs act as an insurance tool that, by mitigating FX volatility, protect remittance recipients and tradable sectors from FX risks, encouraging less bank deposits (consistent with more spending) and lower buffers in the banking sector. These costs add to other direct FXI-related costs already identified in the literature. The development of private sector market risk management tools should support longer-term structural reforms required to increase the absorptive capacity of additional FX inflows.
