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Author: Graciela Laura Kaminsky
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451955863
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning “signal” that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.
Author: Graciela Laura Kaminsky
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451955863
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning “signal” that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.
Author: Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451857209
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 62
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Book Description
This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been to predict the Asian crisis? The results are mixed but somewhat encouraging. One model, and our modifications to it, provide useful forecasts, at least compared with a naive benchmark. The head-to-head comparison also sheds light on the economics of currency crises, the nature of the Asian crisis, and issues in the empirical modeling of currency crises.
Author: Tahsin Saadi-Sedik
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451858442
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
The analysis of coincident and leading indicators can help policymakers gauge the short-term direction of economic activity. While such analysis is well established in advanced economies, it has received relatively little attention in many emerging market and developing economies, reflecting in part the lack of sufficient historical data to determine the reliability of these indicators. This paper presents an econometric approach to deriving composite indexes of coincident and leading indicators for a small open economy, Jordan. The results show that, even with limited monthly observations, it is possible to establish meaningful economic and statistically significant relations between indicators from different sectors of the economy and the present and future direction of economic activity.
Author: Mr.Stijn Claessens
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475561008
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 66
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Book Description
This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Author: Nesrin Özataç
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030937259
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 209
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Book Description
This volume presents current developments in the fields of banking and finance from an international perspective. Featuring contributions from the 5th International Conference on Banking and Finance Perspectives (ICBFP), this volume serves as a valuable forum for discussing current issues and trends in the banking and financial sectors, especially in light of the global economic challenges triggered by financial institutions. Using the latest theoretical models, new perspectives are brought to topics such as the global financial markets, international banking and finance, microfinance, fintech, and corporate finance. Offering an opportunity to explore the challenges of a rapidly changing industry, this volume will be of interest to academics, policy makers, and scholars in the fields of banking, insurance, and finance.
Author: William C. Hunter
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461551552
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 513
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Book Description
In the late 1990s, Korea, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia experienced a series of major financial crises evinced by widespread bank insolvencies and currency depreciations, as well as sharp declines in gross domestic production. This sudden disruption of the Asian economic `miracle' astounded many observers around the world, raised questions about the stability of the international financial system and caused widespread fear that this financial crisis would spread to other countries. What has been called the Asian crisis followed a prolonged slump in Japan dating from the early 1980s and came after the Mexican currency crisis in the mid-1990s. Thus, the Asian crisis became a major policy concern at the International Monetary Fund as well as among developed countries whose cooperation in dealing with such financial crises is necessary to maintain the stability and efficiency of global financial markets. This book collects the papers and discussions delivered at an October 1998 Conference co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the International Monetary Fund to examine the causes, implications and possible solutions to the crises. The conference participants included a broad range of academic, industry, and regulatory experts representing more than thirty countries. Topics discussed included the origin of the individual crises; early warning indicators; the role played by the global financial sector in this crisis; how, given an international safety net, potential risks of moral hazard might contribute to further crises; the lessons for the international financial system to be drawn from the Asian crisis; and what the role of the International Monetary Fund might be in future rescue operations. Because the discussions of these topics include a wide diversity of critical views and opinions, the book offers a particularly rich presentation of current and evolving thinking on the causes and preventions of international banking and monetary crises. The book promises to be one of the timeliest as well as one of the most complete treatments of the Asian financial crisis and its implications for future policymaking.
Author: Morris Goldstein
Publisher: Peterson Institute
ISBN: 9780881322378
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 166
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Book Description
This study reviews the literature on the origins of currency and banking crises. It presents empirical tests on the performance of alternative early-warning indicators for emerging-market economies. The book also identifies crisis-threshold values for early-warning indicators.
Author: Ms. Sally Chen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513582305
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 79
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Book Description
Can the upturns and downturns in financial variables serve as early warning indicators of banking crises? Using data from 59 advanced and emerging economies, we show that financial overheating can be detected in real time. Equity prices and output gap are the best leading indicators in advanced markets; in emerging markets, these are equity and property prices and credit gap. Moreover, aggregating this information flags financial crisis many years before the crisis. Lastly, we find that the length of financial cycles is of medium-term frequency, calling into question the longer frequency widely used in the estimation of countercyclical capital buffers.
Author: İdris Bal
Publisher: Universal-Publishers
ISBN: 1581124236
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 480
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Book Description
With the end of Cold War discipline the world has entered a new era. Parameters have changed; new handicaps as well as new opportunities have been created for countries. Turkey as a neighbor of former USSR, a member of NATO and located at the center of a sensitive region covered by Caucasus, Balkans and Middle East, has been affected by the end of Cold War radically. Turkey has lost some of her bargaining cards in the new era and therefore has needed new arguments. This need encouraged Turkey to take active steps in Post Cold War era. This book analyzes Turkey s relations with US, EU, Balkans, Middle East, Caucasus, Central Asia, Russia, China and Japan. At the same time, effects of economic crises and domestic developments on foreign policy, Turkish model in Turkish foreign policy, water conflict and Kurdish problem are analyzed as well. To conclude, it is possible to argue that although Turkey lost some of her bargaining cards in Post Cold War era, new developments pushed Turkey to the center of world politics rather then to periphery. Contributors: Meliha Benli Altunisik, Deniz Ülke Aribogan, Hüseyin Bagci, Idris Bal, Zeyno Baran, Fulya Kip Barnard, Erol Bulut, Ibrahim S. Canbolat, Saziye Gazioglu, Ramazan Gözen, Saban Kardas, H. Bülent Olcay, Cengiz Okman, Henry E. Paniev, Victor Panin, Dirk Rochtus, Faruk Sönmezoglu, Gül Turan, Ilter Turan, Mustafa Türkes, Nasuh Uslu.
Author: Alexander Rozanov
Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand
ISBN: 1838809813
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 176
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Book Description
The term “crisis management” was applied to business only after the publication of the monograph “Crisis Management: Planning for the Inevitable” by Steven Fink in 1986. Since then, this term has turned from a journalistic cliche into a scientific concept, and its concept, theory, and methodology have been further developed.It is the turning point in the meaning of the word “crisis” that indicates the possibility of changing the situation by making decisions that contribute to changing the vector of development of events from destruction to recovery and further development. From the above, the general definition of the term “crisis management” follows as a process of saving the system from its destructive effects. The activity of the crisis manager is always temporary and stops as a result of a favorable overcoming of the crisis or vice versa—the destruction of the system. Therefore, the criterion for the success of a manager in emergency crisis management is effectiveness as an absolute measure of the presence or absence of a result—it either exists or does not exist.
