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Author: Duehee Lee
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 390
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Book Description
The goal of research in this dissertation is to bring more wind resources into the power grid by mitigating the uncertainty of the current wind power, by developing a new algorithm to respond to the fluctuation of the future wind power, and by building additional transmission lines to bring more wind resources from a remote area to the load center. First, in order to overcome the wind power uncertainty, the probabilistic and ensemble wind power forecasting is proposed to increase the forecasting accuracy and to deliver the probability density function of the uncertainty. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the amounts and cost of ancillary services (AS). As the mismatch between the bid and actual amount of delivered energy decreases, the imbalance between supply and demand also decreases. If the forecasting ahead is increased up to 24 hours, accurate wind power forecasting can also help wind farm owners bid the exact amount of wind power in the day ahead (DA) market. Furthermore, wind power owners can use the parametric probabilistic density of error distributions for hedging the price risk and building a better offer curve. Second, a novel algorithm to generate many wind power scenarios as a function of installed capacity of wind power is proposed based on an analysis of the power spectral density of wind power. Scenarios can be used to simulate the power system to estimate the required amount of AS to respond to the fluctuation of future wind power as the installed capacity of wind power increases. Scenarios have statistical characteristics of the future wind power that are regressed as a function of the installed capacity of wind power from the statistical characteristics of the current wind power. This algorithm can generate many possible scenarios to simulate the power system in many different situations. Third, optimal transmission expansion by simulating the power system with the multiple load and wind power scenarios in different locations is planned to prepare the preliminary result to bring more wind resources in remote areas to the load center in Texas. In this process, the geographical smoothing effects of wind power and the stochastic correlation structure between the load and wind power are considered. Furthermore, the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) is used to synthesize load and wind power scenarios to keep their correlation structure. The premise of the GDFM is that a few factors can drive the correlated movements of load and wind power simultaneously, so the scenario generation process is parsimonious.
Author: Duehee Lee
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 390
Get Book Here
Book Description
The goal of research in this dissertation is to bring more wind resources into the power grid by mitigating the uncertainty of the current wind power, by developing a new algorithm to respond to the fluctuation of the future wind power, and by building additional transmission lines to bring more wind resources from a remote area to the load center. First, in order to overcome the wind power uncertainty, the probabilistic and ensemble wind power forecasting is proposed to increase the forecasting accuracy and to deliver the probability density function of the uncertainty. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the amounts and cost of ancillary services (AS). As the mismatch between the bid and actual amount of delivered energy decreases, the imbalance between supply and demand also decreases. If the forecasting ahead is increased up to 24 hours, accurate wind power forecasting can also help wind farm owners bid the exact amount of wind power in the day ahead (DA) market. Furthermore, wind power owners can use the parametric probabilistic density of error distributions for hedging the price risk and building a better offer curve. Second, a novel algorithm to generate many wind power scenarios as a function of installed capacity of wind power is proposed based on an analysis of the power spectral density of wind power. Scenarios can be used to simulate the power system to estimate the required amount of AS to respond to the fluctuation of future wind power as the installed capacity of wind power increases. Scenarios have statistical characteristics of the future wind power that are regressed as a function of the installed capacity of wind power from the statistical characteristics of the current wind power. This algorithm can generate many possible scenarios to simulate the power system in many different situations. Third, optimal transmission expansion by simulating the power system with the multiple load and wind power scenarios in different locations is planned to prepare the preliminary result to bring more wind resources in remote areas to the load center in Texas. In this process, the geographical smoothing effects of wind power and the stochastic correlation structure between the load and wind power are considered. Furthermore, the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) is used to synthesize load and wind power scenarios to keep their correlation structure. The premise of the GDFM is that a few factors can drive the correlated movements of load and wind power simultaneously, so the scenario generation process is parsimonious.
Author: Georges Kariniotakis
Publisher: Woodhead Publishing
ISBN: 0081005059
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 388
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Book Description
Renewable Energy Forecasting: From Models to Applications provides an overview of the state-of-the-art of renewable energy forecasting technology and its applications. After an introduction to the principles of meteorology and renewable energy generation, groups of chapters address forecasting models, very short-term forecasting, forecasting of extremes, and longer term forecasting. The final part of the book focuses on important applications of forecasting for power system management and in energy markets. Due to shrinking fossil fuel reserves and concerns about climate change, renewable energy holds an increasing share of the energy mix. Solar, wind, wave, and hydro energy are dependent on highly variable weather conditions, so their increased penetration will lead to strong fluctuations in the power injected into the electricity grid, which needs to be managed. Reliable, high quality forecasts of renewable power generation are therefore essential for the smooth integration of large amounts of solar, wind, wave, and hydropower into the grid as well as for the profitability and effectiveness of such renewable energy projects. Offers comprehensive coverage of wind, solar, wave, and hydropower forecasting in one convenient volume Addresses a topic that is growing in importance, given the increasing penetration of renewable energy in many countries Reviews state-of-the-science techniques for renewable energy forecasting Contains chapters on operational applications
Author: James F. Manwell
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9780470686287
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 704
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Book Description
Wind energy’s bestselling textbook- fully revised. This must-have second edition includes up-to-date data, diagrams, illustrations and thorough new material on: the fundamentals of wind turbine aerodynamics; wind turbine testing and modelling; wind turbine design standards; offshore wind energy; special purpose applications, such as energy storage and fuel production. Fifty additional homework problems and a new appendix on data processing make this comprehensive edition perfect for engineering students. This book offers a complete examination of one of the most promising sources of renewable energy and is a great introduction to this cross-disciplinary field for practising engineers. “provides a wealth of information and is an excellent reference book for people interested in the subject of wind energy.” (IEEE Power & Energy Magazine, November/December 2003) “deserves a place in the library of every university and college where renewable energy is taught.” (The International Journal of Electrical Engineering Education, Vol.41, No.2 April 2004) “a very comprehensive and well-organized treatment of the current status of wind power.” (Choice, Vol. 40, No. 4, December 2002)
Author: André Gensler
Publisher: kassel university press GmbH
ISBN: 3737606366
Category : Weights and measures
Languages : en
Pages : 216
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Book Description
This thesis describes performance measures and ensemble architectures for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts using the application example of wind power forecasting and proposes a novel scheme for the situation-dependent aggregation of forecasting models. For performance measures, error scores for deterministic as well as probabilistic forecasts are compared, and their characteristics are shown in detail. For the evaluation of deterministic forecasts, a categorization by basic error measure and normalization technique is introduced that simplifies the process of choosing an appropriate error measure for certain forecasting tasks. Furthermore, a scheme for the common evaluation of different forms of probabilistic forecasts is proposed. Based on the analysis of the error scores, a novel hierarchical aggregation technique for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting models is proposed that dynamically weights individual forecasts using multiple weighting factors such as weather situation and lead time dependent weighting. In the experimental evaluation it is shown that the forecasting quality of the proposed technique is able to outperform other state of the art forecasting models and ensembles.
Author: Djamila Rekioua
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3031528832
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 331
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Book Description
Author: Thomas Ackermann
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 111994208X
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 1132
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Book Description
The second edition of the highly acclaimed Wind Power in Power Systems has been thoroughly revised and expanded to reflect the latest challenges associated with increasing wind power penetration levels. Since its first release, practical experiences with high wind power penetration levels have significantly increased. This book presents an overview of the lessons learned in integrating wind power into power systems and provides an outlook of the relevant issues and solutions to allow even higher wind power penetration levels. This includes the development of standard wind turbine simulation models. This extensive update has 23 brand new chapters in cutting-edge areas including offshore wind farms and storage options, performance validation and certification for grid codes, and the provision of reactive power and voltage control from wind power plants. Key features: Offers an international perspective on integrating a high penetration of wind power into the power system, from basic network interconnection to industry deregulation; Outlines the methodology and results of European and North American large-scale grid integration studies; Extensive practical experience from wind power and power system experts and transmission systems operators in Germany, Denmark, Spain, UK, Ireland, USA, China and New Zealand; Presents various wind turbine designs from the electrical perspective and models for their simulation, and discusses industry standards and world-wide grid codes, along with power quality issues; Considers concepts to increase penetration of wind power in power systems, from wind turbine, power plant and power system redesign to smart grid and storage solutions. Carefully edited for a highly coherent structure, this work remains an essential reference for power system engineers, transmission and distribution network operator and planner, wind turbine designers, wind project developers and wind energy consultants dealing with the integration of wind power into the distribution or transmission network. Up-to-date and comprehensive, it is also useful for graduate students, researchers, regulation authorities, and policy makers who work in the area of wind power and need to understand the relevant power system integration issues.
Author: Radu-Emil Precup
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9811359954
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 257
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Book Description
This book presents advanced studies on the conversion efficiency, mechanical reliability, and the quality of power related to wind energy systems. The main concern regarding such systems is reconciling the highly intermittent nature of the primary source (wind speed) with the demand for high-quality electrical energy and system stability. This means that wind energy conversion within the standard parameters imposed by the energy market and power industry is unachievable without optimization and control. The book discusses the rapid growth of control and optimization paradigms and applies them to wind energy systems: new controllers, new computational approaches, new applications, new algorithms, and new obstacles.
Author: Abdo Abou Jaoude
Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand
ISBN: 1838808256
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 156
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Book Description
Mathematical probability and statistics are an attractive, thriving, and respectable part of mathematics. Some mathematicians and philosophers of science say they are the gateway to mathematics’ deepest mysteries. Moreover, mathematical statistics denotes an accumulation of mathematical discussions connected with efforts to most efficiently collect and use numerical data subject to random or deterministic variations. Currently, the concept of probability and mathematical statistics has become one of the fundamental notions of modern science and the philosophy of nature. This book is an illustration of the use of mathematics to solve specific problems in engineering, statistics, and science in general.
Author: Yu Ding
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 0429956517
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 400
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Book Description
Data Science for Wind Energy provides an in-depth discussion on how data science methods can improve decision making for wind energy applications, near-ground wind field analysis and forecast, turbine power curve fitting and performance analysis, turbine reliability assessment, and maintenance optimization for wind turbines and wind farms. A broad set of data science methods covered, including time series models, spatio-temporal analysis, kernel regression, decision trees, kNN, splines, Bayesian inference, and importance sampling. More importantly, the data science methods are described in the context of wind energy applications, with specific wind energy examples and case studies. Please also visit the author’s book site at https://aml.engr.tamu.edu/book-dswe. Features Provides an integral treatment of data science methods and wind energy applications Includes specific demonstration of particular data science methods and their use in the context of addressing wind energy needs Presents real data, case studies and computer codes from wind energy research and industrial practice Covers material based on the author's ten plus years of academic research and insights
Author: Antonio Bracale
Publisher: MDPI
ISBN: 303928312X
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 134
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Book Description
Modern power systems are affected by many sources of uncertainty, driven by the spread of renewable generation, by the development of liberalized energy market systems and by the intrinsic random behavior of the final energy customers. Forecasting is, therefore, a crucial task in planning and managing modern power systems at any level: from transmission to distribution networks, and in also the new context of smart grids. Recent trends suggest the suitability of ensemble approaches in order to increase the versatility and robustness of forecasting systems. Stacking, boosting, and bagging techniques have recently started to attract the interest of power system practitioners. This book addresses the development of new, advanced, ensemble forecasting methods applied to power systems, collecting recent contributions to the development of accurate forecasts of energy-related variables by some of the most qualified experts in energy forecasting. Typical areas of research (renewable energy forecasting, load forecasting, energy price forecasting) are investigated, with relevant applications to the use of forecasts in energy management systems.
