Why the Weak Win Wars: A Study of the Factors That Drive Strategy in Asymmetric Conflict PDF Download
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 96
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Book Description
This thesis builds on the research and ideas of the school of thought that believes strategy is the most important factor in predicting war outcomes. One shortcoming of that school is the inability to explain why strong actors would implement a strategy that does not provide the highest probability of victory. The thesis uses game theory to illustrate how a seemingly nonoptimal strategy may be rational for the initial phases of a conflict (this rationale would not apply beyond the initial stages of the conflict). To explain nonoptimal strategy selection in prolonged conflicts, the author analyzes strategy drivers -- factors that influence strategy selection and implementation. Probability of victory is only one of the factors that has been found to influence strategy implementation. The author finds that the institutional predisposition of a military is the most important factor because it is the most consistent and the most controllable by the military. Using this conceptual basis, the author analyzes U.S. involvement in Afghanistan since 2001, U.S. operations in Iraq since 2003, the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s, and the U.S. involvement in Vietnam. The model and case studies illustrate a U.S. military institutional predisposition towards direct attack. As such, the thesis recommends that the U.S. military take action to adopt a more neutral institutional predisposition.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 96
Get Book Here
Book Description
This thesis builds on the research and ideas of the school of thought that believes strategy is the most important factor in predicting war outcomes. One shortcoming of that school is the inability to explain why strong actors would implement a strategy that does not provide the highest probability of victory. The thesis uses game theory to illustrate how a seemingly nonoptimal strategy may be rational for the initial phases of a conflict (this rationale would not apply beyond the initial stages of the conflict). To explain nonoptimal strategy selection in prolonged conflicts, the author analyzes strategy drivers -- factors that influence strategy selection and implementation. Probability of victory is only one of the factors that has been found to influence strategy implementation. The author finds that the institutional predisposition of a military is the most important factor because it is the most consistent and the most controllable by the military. Using this conceptual basis, the author analyzes U.S. involvement in Afghanistan since 2001, U.S. operations in Iraq since 2003, the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s, and the U.S. involvement in Vietnam. The model and case studies illustrate a U.S. military institutional predisposition towards direct attack. As such, the thesis recommends that the U.S. military take action to adopt a more neutral institutional predisposition.
Author: Ivan Arreguín-Toft
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1316583007
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 275
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Book Description
How do the weak win wars? The likelihood of victory and defeat in asymmetric conflicts depends on the interaction of the strategies weak and strong actors use. Using statistical and in-depth historical analyses of conflicts spanning two hundred years, in this 2005 book Ivan Arregúin-Toft shows that, independent of regime type and weapons technology, the interaction of similar strategic approaches favors strong actors, while opposite strategic approaches favors the weak. This approach to understanding asymmetric conflicts allows us to makes sense of how the United States was able to win its war in Afghanistan (2002) in a few months, while the Soviet Union lost after a decade of brutal war (1979–89). Arreguín-Toft's strategic interaction theory has implications not only for international relations theory, but for policy makers grappling with interstate and civil wars, as well as terrorism.
Author: U. S. Military
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781549780998
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 95
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Book Description
This report builds on the research and ideas of the school of thought that believes strategy is the most important factor in predicting war outcomes. One shortcoming of that school is the inability to explain why strong actors would implement a strategy that does not provide the highest probability of victory. This project uses a game theoretic model to illustrate how a seemingly non-optimal strategy may be rational for initial phases of the conflict. However, this rationale does not apply beyond initial stages of conflict. To explain non-optimal strategy selection in prolonged conflicts, this project analyzes strategy drivers--factors that influence strategy selection and implementation. Probability of victory is only one of the factors found to influence strategy implementation. Other than probability of victory, this study finds that the institutional predisposition of a military is the most important because it is the most consistent and the most controllable by the military. With this conceptual basis, the project analyzes U.S. involvement in Afghanistan since 2001. It also takes a cursory look at U.S. operations in Iraq since 2003, the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s, and the U.S. involvement in Vietnam. The model and case studies illustrate a U.S. military institutional predisposition with an excessive disposition towards direct attack. As such, this thesis recommends taking action to provide the U.S. military with a more neutral institutional predisposition.CHAPTER I - INTRODUCTION * A. AVOIDANCE IS NOT AN OPTION * B. NEED FOR A THEORY * C. THESIS * CHAPTER II - REVIEW OF WAR OUTCOME EXPLANATIONS * CHAPTER III - A CLOSER LOOK AT ARREGUIN-TOFT * A. STRONG AND WEAK * B. DIRECT ATTACK * C. INDIRECT ATTACK * D. DIRECT DEFENSE * E. INDIRECT DEFENSE * F. SHORTCOMINGS * CHAPTER IV - GAME THEORETIC MODEL * A. ORDINAL VALUES FOR STRONG ACTORS * B. ORDINAL VALUES FOR WEAK ACTORS * C. THE RESULTING GAME * D. PREDICTIONS AND EXPECTATIONS FROM THE GAME * CHAPTER V - STRATEGY DRIVERS * A. DESCRIPTION OF FACTORS THAT DRIVE STRATEGY * B. RELATIVE SIGNIFICANCE OF STRATEGY FACTORS * CHAPTER VI - AFGHANISTAN CASE STUDY * A. STRATEGIC INTERACTION #1 * B. STRATEGIC INTERACTION #2 * C. ATTEMPTED STRATEGIC INTERACTION #3 * CHAPTER VII - OTHER CONFLICTS AT A GLANCE * A. OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM * B. USSR IN AFGHANISTAN * C. U.S. INTERACTIONS IN VIETNAM * D. INSIGHTS FROM CASE STUDIES * CHAPTER VIII - DISCUSSION * CHAPTER IX - RECOMMENDATIONS * CHAPTER X - CONCLUSION
Author: Naval Postgraduate Naval Postgraduate School
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN: 9781542704755
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 100
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Book Description
This thesis builds upon existing contemporary theories that attempt to explain the outcomes of asymmetric conflict. Specifically, this thesis uses Ivan Arregu�n-Toft's Strategic Interaction Theory as a baseline to identify theoretical gaps that can not only help further explain asymmetric conflict outcomes, but also provide insight into developing the proper strategy for strong actors.Arregu�n-Toft contends that when the strong actor employs the correct strategy then it will win over 75 percent of conflicts against a materially weaker adversary. This leads to a fundamental question: if the strong actor uses the correct strategy against a weaker opponent, then why do strong actors still lose nearly 25 percent of the time? In an effort to identify other key variables that help explain non-conventional war outcomes, this thesis evaluates case studies where the strong actor both won and lost an asymmetric conflict after choosing the correct strategy. This study finds two other factors that are important to achieving victory in an asymmetric conflict. First, the strong actor must have a viable indigenous political authority to work by, with and through. This concept has little to do with political legitimacy. Instead, it focuses on the capacity of the host nation, with strong actor assistance, to synchronize its military and political effort to defeat the insurgency. Second, the strong actor must not only use restraint in applying direct military power, but it must also use the correct force: a cadre that is trained in conducting irregular warfare. As such, this thesis' conclusions are aligned with the belief that it is the host nation's war to win or lose-adhering to this principle provides the strong actor with the best chance of "defeating David" before losing its political will.
Author: John P. Geis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 300
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Book Description
Author: T. V. Paul
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521466219
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 268
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Book Description
This book examines a question generally neglected in the study of international relations: why does a militarily and economically less powerful state initiate conflict against a relatively strong state? T. V. Paul analyses this phenomenon by focusing on the strategic and political considerations, domestic and international, which influence a weaker state to initiate war against a more powerful adversary. The key argument of deterrence theory is that the military superiority of the status quo power, coupled with a credible retaliatory threat, will prevent attack by challengers. The author challenges this assumption by examining six twentieth-century asymmetric wars, from the Japanese offensive against Russia in 1904 to the Argentine invasion of the Falkland Islands in 1982. The book's findings have wide implications for the study of war, power, deterrence, coercive diplomacy, strategy, arms races, and alliances.
Author: SERGIO GONZALEZ RODRIGUEZ
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 1635900913
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 193
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Book Description
The emergence of a geopolitical war scenario, establishing a form of global governance that utilizes methods of surveillance and control. In times of war the law is silent. —from Field of Battle Field of Battle presents the world today as nothing less than a war in progress, with Mexico an illustrative microcosm of the developing geopolitical scenario: a battlefield in which violence, drug trafficking, and organized crime—as well as the alegal state that works alongside all of this in the guise of fighting against it—hold sway. The rule of law has been replaced by the dominance of alegality and the rise of the “a-state.” This war scenario is establishing a form of global governance that utilizes methods of surveillance and control developed by the United States government and enforced through its global network of military bases and the multinational corporations that work in synergy with its espionage agencies. Geopolitics take advantage of social instability, drug cartels, state repression, and paramilitarism to establish the foundations of a world order. Sergio González Rodríguez argues that this surveillance and control model has been imposed on the international community through extreme neoliberal ideology, free markets, the globalized economy, and the rise of the information society. The threats are clear. Nation-states are increasingly unable to respond to societal needs, and the individual has been displaced by money and technique—the axis of the transhumanist future foretold by today's electronic devices. The human being as the prosthesis of an artificial world and as an object of networks and systems: citizens are the victims of a perverse vision of reality, caught between the defense of their rights and their will to insurrection.
Author: Peter A. Kiss
Publisher: Potomac Books, Inc.
ISBN: 1612347037
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 338
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Book Description
Since the end of World War II a paradigm shift has occurred in armed conflict. Asymmetric, or fourth-generation warfareùthe challenge of nonstate belligerents to the authority and power of the stateùhas become the dominant form of conflict, while interstate conventional war has become an increasingly irrelevant instrument of statecraft. In asymmetric conflicts the enemy is often a fellow citizen with a different vision for the future of the countryùwaging war among the people, maneuvering on the borderlines between parliamentary politics, street politics, criminal activity, and combat operations. Winning Wars amongst the People analyzes the special circumstances of asymmetric conflicts in the domestic context and seeks to identify those principles that allow a democratic stateÆs security forces to meet the challenge, while at the same time obey their homelandÆs laws, protect its culture, observe its values, and maintain its liberties, traditions, and way of life. Using five detailed case studies, Peter A. Kiss explains the fundamental differences between the paradigm of conventional warfare and that of asymmetric warfare as well as the latterÆs political, social, and economic roots and main characteristics. Most important, he identifies the measures a government must take to prepare its security forces and other institutions of state for an asymmetric conflict.
Author: Cary Herrera (A.)
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781423524007
Category : Asymmetric warfare
Languages : en
Pages : 120
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Book Description
This thesis explores the will to win in asymmetric war. Asymmetric war, in which one side has an overwhelming advantage over its opponent, will likely be the war of the future for the United States in the post-Cold War uni- polar world. To win an asymmetric war, the individual and then the masses must be motivated to fight and, ultimately, the will to win must be cultivated and sustained for victory. Religion is a highly effective motivator for both the individual and the masses. This motivation, when properly directed, can provide the will to win in the face of overwhelming odds. This thesis focuses on religion as the primary motivator in an asymmetric war. Religion is a strong motivator for the individual because of four factors: appropriateness, identity, rationality, and religion's strength as an internally consistent logic. With a highly motivated individual, an organization gains specific advantages by focusing on the religious aspects of the conflict. These advantages are: commitment, legitimacy, membership, and longevity. These are the measurable elements that create a strong will to win. Three case studies - Iran and Iraq, Hezbollah and Israel, and the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) and Algeria - are explored as examples of contemporary asymmetric conflict. These case studies are used to examine the asymmetries between the countries in conflict and test the validity of our theory about the significance of the will to win.
Author: Patricia L. Sullivan (Ph. D.)
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199878331
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 192
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Book Description
Why are states with tremendous military might so often unable to attain their objectives when they use force against weaker adversaries? Who Wins? by Patricia L. Sullivan argues that the key to understanding strategic success in war lies in the nature of the political objectives states pursue through the use of military force.
