Value Trap

Value Trap PDF Author: Brian M. Nelson
Publisher: Valuentum Securities, Incorporated
ISBN: 9780998038490
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 358

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Book Description
Wall Street doesn't know it has a problem. Index and quantitative investors have been free-riding on the backs of active managers for years, but growth in price-agnostic trading may finally have reached the tipping point. Brian Nelson, former Director of Methodology at Morningstar and President of Investment Research at Valuentum, explains how enterprise valuation forms the Theory of Universal Valuation and why a focus on it may not only help you avoid value traps, but also save you from the next financial crisis. This is a 350 page book, including Preface, Notes, Bibliography and Index. The text is a response to many worrisome trends and processes in the investment management business today. The book strives to answer the question: what is the appropriate empirical evidence in evidence-based finance? Surely, not just any empirical evidence will do. The book is not meant to be controversial, but a discussion of the great contradiction of "explaining" stock return behavior between factor-based investing (which is based mostly on ambiguous, realized data within in-sample sets) and the efficient markets hypothesis (which is based on expectations of future data, realized or not) may make it so. The text is heavy in behavioral thinking and puts forth enterprise valuation as a behavioral framework in which to view stock prices and their movements. This book also shows how enterprise valuation is much more than a simple stock valuation tool, but rather that enterprise valuation is truly universal valuation, resting at the intersection of behavioral economics, quantitative theory, equity valuation, and therefore finance, itself. A reading of "The Data Dilemma and Valuentum Investing" in the Preface is necessary to understand the various types of data Nelson refers to frequently in this text: ambiguous, causal and impractical. Also emphasized in this book is the difference between in-sample, out-of-sample and walk-forward studies, the latter the author believes to be the most robust and authentic of processes. In the first section of this book (chapters 1 through 3), Nelson welcomes you on a journey through the early lessons of his career and introduces some of the major shortcomings of traditional quant factor-based analysis, while building up the importance of a common theme in this text: the information contained in share prices. In the second section of this book (chapters 4 through 6), the causal nature of enterprise valuation to stock prices is explained, culminating in the Theory of Universal Valuation, which offers enterprise valuation as the central theme to quantitative value studies, efficient markets hypothesis testing and beyond. If at any time, it gets too theoretical, Nelson encourages the casual reader to skip ahead. In the final section of the book (chapters 7 through 10), Nelson talks about practical application of the principles explained in this text: how enterprise valuation can be used to identify bubbles and mispricings, how it's valuable to dividend-growth and income frameworks, how it's connected to economic moat and economic castle theory, and how it can be applied practically in an equity portfolio setting, as in Valuentum investing. This book is not a how-to manual on how to perform enterprise valuation, or a get-rich-quick investment program, but rather a text that Nelson feels lays the foundation for a genuine conversation about stock investing, a conversation about price versus estimated intrinsic value. The book is chock-full of footnotes, too, offering greater depth in areas that may require it. This book is content-rich for the number of pages, as the author wants every sentence, every paragraph to be worth your while. Mr. Nelson has over 15 years' experience in enterprise valuation and holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.

Value Trap

Value Trap PDF Author: Brian M. Nelson
Publisher: Valuentum Securities, Incorporated
ISBN: 9780998038490
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 358

Get Book Here

Book Description
Wall Street doesn't know it has a problem. Index and quantitative investors have been free-riding on the backs of active managers for years, but growth in price-agnostic trading may finally have reached the tipping point. Brian Nelson, former Director of Methodology at Morningstar and President of Investment Research at Valuentum, explains how enterprise valuation forms the Theory of Universal Valuation and why a focus on it may not only help you avoid value traps, but also save you from the next financial crisis. This is a 350 page book, including Preface, Notes, Bibliography and Index. The text is a response to many worrisome trends and processes in the investment management business today. The book strives to answer the question: what is the appropriate empirical evidence in evidence-based finance? Surely, not just any empirical evidence will do. The book is not meant to be controversial, but a discussion of the great contradiction of "explaining" stock return behavior between factor-based investing (which is based mostly on ambiguous, realized data within in-sample sets) and the efficient markets hypothesis (which is based on expectations of future data, realized or not) may make it so. The text is heavy in behavioral thinking and puts forth enterprise valuation as a behavioral framework in which to view stock prices and their movements. This book also shows how enterprise valuation is much more than a simple stock valuation tool, but rather that enterprise valuation is truly universal valuation, resting at the intersection of behavioral economics, quantitative theory, equity valuation, and therefore finance, itself. A reading of "The Data Dilemma and Valuentum Investing" in the Preface is necessary to understand the various types of data Nelson refers to frequently in this text: ambiguous, causal and impractical. Also emphasized in this book is the difference between in-sample, out-of-sample and walk-forward studies, the latter the author believes to be the most robust and authentic of processes. In the first section of this book (chapters 1 through 3), Nelson welcomes you on a journey through the early lessons of his career and introduces some of the major shortcomings of traditional quant factor-based analysis, while building up the importance of a common theme in this text: the information contained in share prices. In the second section of this book (chapters 4 through 6), the causal nature of enterprise valuation to stock prices is explained, culminating in the Theory of Universal Valuation, which offers enterprise valuation as the central theme to quantitative value studies, efficient markets hypothesis testing and beyond. If at any time, it gets too theoretical, Nelson encourages the casual reader to skip ahead. In the final section of the book (chapters 7 through 10), Nelson talks about practical application of the principles explained in this text: how enterprise valuation can be used to identify bubbles and mispricings, how it's valuable to dividend-growth and income frameworks, how it's connected to economic moat and economic castle theory, and how it can be applied practically in an equity portfolio setting, as in Valuentum investing. This book is not a how-to manual on how to perform enterprise valuation, or a get-rich-quick investment program, but rather a text that Nelson feels lays the foundation for a genuine conversation about stock investing, a conversation about price versus estimated intrinsic value. The book is chock-full of footnotes, too, offering greater depth in areas that may require it. This book is content-rich for the number of pages, as the author wants every sentence, every paragraph to be worth your while. Mr. Nelson has over 15 years' experience in enterprise valuation and holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.

Investment Valuation

Investment Valuation PDF Author: Aswath Damodaran
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9780471414902
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1014

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Book Description
Valuation is a topic that is extensively covered in business degree programs throughout the country. Damodaran's revisions to "Investment Valuation" are an addition to the needs of these programs.

The Art of Value Investing

The Art of Value Investing PDF Author: John Heins
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118233964
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 304

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Book Description
Says Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital Management about The Art of Value Investing: "I learned the investment business largely from the work and thinking of other investors. The Art of Value Investing is a thoughtfully organized compilation of some of the best investment insights I have ever read. Read this book with care. It will be one of the highest-return investments you will ever make." Based on interviews with the world's most-successful value investors, The Art of Value Investing offers a comprehensive set of answers to the questions every equity money manager should have thought through clearly before holding himself or herself out as a worthy steward of other people's money. What market inefficiencies will I try to exploit? How will I generate ideas? What will be my geographic focus? What analytical edge will I hope to have? What valuation methodologies will I use? What time horizon will I typically employ? How many stocks will I own? How specifically will I decide to buy or sell? Will I hedge, and how? How will I keep my emotions from getting the best of me? Who should read The Art of Value Investing? It is as vital a resource for the just starting out investor as for the sophisticated professional one. The former will find a comprehensive guidebook for defining a sound investment strategy from A-to-Z; the latter will find all aspects of his or her existing practice challenged or reconfirmed by the provocative thinking of their most-successful peers. It also is a must read for any investor – institutional or individual – charged with choosing the best managers for the money they are allocating to equities. Choosing the right managers requires knowing all the right questions to ask as well as the answers worthy of respect and attention – both of which are delivered in The Art of Value Investing.

Equity Valuation

Equity Valuation PDF Author: Jan Viebig
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470758805
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 438

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Book Description
Equity Valuation: Models from the Leading Investment Banks is a clear and reader-friendly guide to how today’s leading investment banks analyze firms. Editors Jan Viebig and Thorsten Poddig bring together expertise from UBS, Morgan Stanley, DWS Investment GmbH and Credit Suisse, providing a unique analysis of leading equity valuation models, from the very individuals who use them. Filled with real world insights, practical examples and theoretical approaches, the book will examine the strengths and weaknesses of some of the leading valuation approaches, helping readers understand how analysts: · estimate cash flows · calculate discount rates · adjust for accounting distortions · take uncertainty into consideration Written for investment professionals, corporate managers and anyone interested in developing their understanding of this key area, Equity Valuation: Models from the Leading Investment Banks will arm readers with the latest thinking and depth of knowledge necessary to make the right decisions in their valuation methodologies.

Don't Count on It!

Don't Count on It! PDF Author: John C. Bogle
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470949023
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 640

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Book Description
Praise for Don't Count On It! "This collection of Jack Bogle's writings couldn't be more timely. The clarity of his thinking—and his insistence on the relevance of ethical standards—are totally relevant as we strive to rebuild a broken financial system. For too many years, his strong voice has been lost amid the cacophony of competing self-interests, misdirected complexity, and unbounded greed. Read, learn, and support Jack's mission to reform the industry that has been his life's work." —PAUL VOLCKER, Chairman of the President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board and former Chairman of the Federal Reserve (1979–1987) "Jack Bogle has given investors throughout the world more wisdom and plain financial 'horse sense' than any person in the history of markets. This compendium of his best writings, particularly his post-crisis guidance, is absolutely essential reading for investors and those who care about the future of our society." —ARTHUR LEVITT, former Chairman, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission "Jack Bogle is one of the most lucid men in finance." —NASSIM N.TALEB, PhD, author of The Black Swan "Jack Bogle is one of the financial wise men whose experience spans the post–World War II years. This book, encompassing his insights on financial behavior, pitfalls, and remedies, with a special focus on mutual funds, is an essential read. We can only benefit from his observations." —HENRY KAUFMAN, President, Henry Kaufman & Company, Inc. "It was not an easy sell. The joke at first was that only finance professors invested in Vanguard's original index fund. But what a triumph it has been. And what a focused and passionate drive it took: it is a zero-sum game and only costs are certain. Thank you, Jack." —JEREMY GRANTHAM, Cofounder and Chairman, GMO "On finance, Jack Bogle thinks unconventionally. So, this sound rebel turns out to be right most of the time. Meanwhile, many of us sometimes engage in self-deception. So, this book will set us straight. And in the last few pages, Jack writes, and I agree, that Peter Bernstein was a giant. So is Jack Bogle." —JEAN-MARIE EVEILLARD, Senior Adviser, First Eagle Investment Management Insights into investing and leadership from the founder of The Vanguard Group Throughout his legendary career, John Bogle-founder of the Vanguard mutual fund group and creator of the first index mutual fund-has helped investors build wealth the right way, while, at the same time, leading a tireless campaign to restore common sense to the investment world. A collection of essays based on speeches delivered to professional groups and college students in recent years, in Don't Count on It is organized around eight themes Illusion versus reality in investing Indexing to market returns Failures of capitalism The flawed structure of the mutual fund industry The spirit of entrepreneurship What is enough in business, and in life Advice to America's future leaders The unforgettable characters who have shaped his career Widely acclaimed for his role as the conscience of the mutual fund industry and a relentless advocate for individual investors, in Don't Count on It, Bogle continues to inspire, while pushing the mutual fund industry to measure up to their promise.

Discounted Cash Flow

Discounted Cash Flow PDF Author: Lutz Kruschwitz
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470870451
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 178

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Book Description
Firm valuation is currently a very exciting topic. It is interesting for those economists engaged in either practice or theory, particularly for those in finance. The literature on firm valuation recommends logical, quantitative methods, which deal with establishing today's value of future free cash flows. In this respect firm valuation is identical with the calculation of the discounted cash flow, DCF. There are, however, different coexistent versions, which seem to compete against each other. Entity approach and equity approach are thus differentiated. Acronyms are often used, such as APV (adjusted present value) or WACC (weighted average cost of capital), whereby these two concepts are classified under entity approach. Why are there several procedures and not just one? Do they all lead to the same result? If not, where do the economic differences lie? If so, for what purpose are different methods needed? And further: do the known procedures suffice? Or are there situations where none of the concepts developed up to now delivers the correct value of the firm? If so, how is the appropriate valuation formula to be found? These questions are not just interesting for theoreticians; even the practitioner who is confronted with the task of marketing his or her results has to deal with it. The authors systematically clarify the way in which these different variations of the DCF concept are related throughout the book ENDORSEMENTS FOR LÖFFLER: DISCOUNTED 0-470-87044-3 "Compared with the huge number of books on pragmatic approaches to discounted cash flow valuation, there are remarkably few that lay out the theoretical underpinnings of this technique. Kruschwitz and Löffler bring together the theory in this area in a consistent and rigorous way that should be useful for all serious students of the topic." --Ian Cooper, London Business School "This treatise on the market valuation of corporate cash flows offers the first reconciliation of conventional cost-of-capital valuation models from the corporate finance literature with state-pricing (or 'risk-neutral' pricing) models subsequently developed on the basis of multi-period no-arbitrage theories. Using an entertaining style, Kruschwitz and Löffler develop a precise and theoretically consistent definition of 'cost of capital', and provoke readers to drop vague or contradictory alternatives." --Darrell Duffie, Stanford University "Handling firm and personal income taxes properly in valuation involves complex considerations. This book offers a new, precise, clear and concise theoretical path that is pleasant to read. Now it is the practitioners task to translate this approach into real-world applications!" --Wolfgang Wagner, PricewaterhouseCoopers "It is an interesting book, which has some new results and it fills a gap in the literature between the usual undergraduate material and the very abstract PhD material in such books as that of Duffie (Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory). The style is very engaging, which is rare in books pitched at this level." --Martin Lally, University of Wellington

Investing

Investing PDF Author: Robert Hagstrom
Publisher: Columbia University Press
ISBN: 0231160100
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 218

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Book Description
In this updated second edition, well-known investment author Hagstrom explores basic and fundamental investing concepts in a range of fields outside of economics, including physics, biology, sociology, psychology, philosophy, and literature.

Equity Valuation: Science, Art, or Craft?

Equity Valuation: Science, Art, or Craft? PDF Author: Frank J. Fabozzi
Publisher: CFA Institute Research Foundation
ISBN: 1944960341
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 234

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Book Description
The price at which a stock is traded in the market reflects the ability of the firm to generate cash flow and the risks associated with generating the expected future cash flows. The authors point to the limits of widely used valuation techniques. The most important of these limits is the inability to forecast cash flows and to determine the appropriate discount rate. Another important limit is the inability to determine absolute value. Widely used valuation techniques such as market multiples - the price-to-earnings ratio, firm value multiples or a use of multiple ratios, for example - capture only relative value, that is, the value of a firm's stocks related to the value of comparable firms (assuming that comparable firms can be identified). The study underlines additional problems when it comes to valuing IPOs and private equity: Both are sensitive to the timing of the offer, suffer from information asymmetry, and are more subject to behavioral elements than is the case for shares of listed firms. In the case of IPOs in particular, the authors discuss how communication strategies and media hype play an important role in the IPO valuation/pricing process.

The Mining Valuation Handbook 4e

The Mining Valuation Handbook 4e PDF Author: Victor Rudenno
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0730381455
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 629

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Book Description
An essential, in-depth guide to mining investment analysis Written by a mining investment expert, The Mining Valuation Handbook: Mining and Energy Valuation for Investors and Management is a useful resource. It's designed to be utilized by executives, investors, and financial and mining analysts. The book guides those who need to assess the value and investment potential of mining opportunities. The fourth edition text has been fully updated in its coverage of a broad scope of topics, such as feasibility studies, commodity values, indicative capital and operating costs, valuation and pricing techniques, and exploration and expansion effects.

Benjamin Graham and the Power of Growth Stocks: Lost Growth Stock Strategies from the Father of Value Investing

Benjamin Graham and the Power of Growth Stocks: Lost Growth Stock Strategies from the Father of Value Investing PDF Author: Frederick K. Martin
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN: 0071754563
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 305

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Book Description
Use a master’s lost secret to pick growth companies bound for success In 1948, legendary Columbia University professor Benjamin Graham bought a major stake in the Government Employees Insurance Corporation. In a time when no one trusted the stock market, he championed value investing and helped introduce the world to intrinsic value. He had a powerful valuation formula. Now, in this groundbreaking book, long-term investing expert Fred Martin shows you how to use value-investing principles to analyze and pick winning growth-stock companies—just like Graham did when he acquired GEICO. Benjamin Graham and the Power of Growth Stocks is an advanced, hands-on guide for investors and executives who want to find the best growth stocks, develop a solid portfolio strategy, and execute trades for maximum profitability and limited risk. Through conversational explanations, real-world case studies, and pragmatic formulas, it shows you step-by-step how this enlightened trading philosophy is successful. The secret lies in Graham’s valuation formula, which has been out of print since 1962—until now. By calculating the proper data, you can gain clarity of focus on an investment by putting on blinders to variables that are alluring but irrelevant. This one-stop guide to growing wealth shows you how to: Liberate your money from the needs of mutual funds and brokers Build a reasonable seven-year forecast for every company considered for your portfolio Estimate a company’s future value in four easy steps Ensure long-term profits with an unblinking buy-and-hold strategy This complete guide shows you why Graham’s game-changing formula works and how to use it to build a profitable portfolio. Additionally, you learn tips and proven techniques for unlocking the formula’s full potential with disciplined research and emotional control to stick by your decisions through long periods of inactive trading. But even if your trading approach includes profiting from short-term volatility, you can still benefit from the valuation formula and process inside by using them to gain an advantageous perspective on stock prices. Find the companies that will grow you a fortune with Benjamin Graham and the Power of Growth Stocks.