Using State and Metropolitan Area House Price Cycles to Interpret the U.S. Housing Market PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Using State and Metropolitan Area House Price Cycles to Interpret the U.S. Housing Market PDF full book. Access full book title Using State and Metropolitan Area House Price Cycles to Interpret the U.S. Housing Market by Yolanda K. Kodrzycki. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Yolanda K. Kodrzycki
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Housing
Languages : en
Pages : 34
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Yolanda K. Kodrzycki
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Housing
Languages : en
Pages : 34
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Yarui Li
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
The housing market plays a significant role in shaping the economic and social well-being of U.S. households. It helps spur U.S. economic growth when house prices rise, and drags the economic growth when house prices drop. In this dissertation, an analysis is conducted to project the direction of the U.S. housing market and to discover how it interacts with economic fundamentals. New pieces of information are found, which are deemed to facilitate decision making for both policy makers and investors. In the first part of the dissertation, the groupings of U.S. housing markets are studied using cluster and discriminant analysis. Three clusters are found, which are located in the central, the east coast, and the west coast of US. There are no price signals transmitted among these housing market clusters, nor within each cluster. Thus, the communication of information in the housing market is through the process of utility convergence of marginal residents, and no price convergence across regions is found. Next, the impact of credit constraint on the house prices is examined with the stochastic components of the price series being considered. Both a simulation technique and a DAG approach are employed. The resulting causal pattern shows that credit constraints affect the house prices directly and positively. Moreover, credit constraints work as an intermediary, passing the influence of the house investor, household income, and user cost onto house prices, which suggests that the credit relaxation policy should be carried out with caution when house inventory and household income send inconsistent signals. Last, the model selection for house price analysis is discussed from the perspective of large-scale models -- dynamic factor (DFM) model and large-scale Bayesian VAR (LBVAR) model. The LBVAR models are found to have superior performance compared to the DFM model throughout the prediction period. Also, it is found that the combined forecasts do not necessarily outperform individual forecasts. Even though independent information from different individual models improves the forecast accuracy, the benefit gained from marginal information is offset by the larger error brought by such combination. The electronic version of this dissertation is accessible from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/151894
Author: Thomas Sowell
Publisher: Basic Books (AZ)
ISBN: 0465018807
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 194
Get Book Here
Book Description
Explains how we got into the current economic disaster that developed out of the economics and politics of the housing boom and bust. The "creative" financing of home mortgages and "creative" marketing of financial securities based on these mortgages to countries around the world, are part of the story of how a financial house of cards was built up--and then collapsed.
Author: Michael Flor
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 37
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper is mainly concerned with the analysis of regional house price cycles. Based on a newly available data set consisting of the 40 largest U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), we introduce a wavelet transform based metric to study the housing cycle synchronization across MSAs. We derive several conclusions: (i) We show that regional housing cycle dissimilarities are significantly and strongly connected to geography. (ii) We show that U.S. regional housing cycles are considerably shorter compared to business cycles. (iii) By employing statistical methods, we also show that regional housing prices significantly converge after the bursting of the bubble only at higher business cycle frequencies, whereas for lower business cycle frequencies this is not the case. This is a notable result, because it directly implies that housing cycles behavior is different even at the business cycle.
Author: Rob Nijskens
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3030116743
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 220
Get Book Here
Book Description
This open access book discusses booming housing markets in cities around the globe, and the resulting challenges for policymakers and central banks. Cities are booming everywhere, leading to a growing demand for urban housing. In many cities this demand is out-pacing supply, which causes house prices to soar and increases the pressure on rental markets. These developments are posing major challenges for policymakers, central banks and other authorities responsible for ensuring financial stability, and economic well-being in general.This volume collects views from high-level policymakers and researchers, providing essential insights into these challenges, their impact on society, the economy and financial stability, and possible policy responses. The respective chapters address issues such as the popularity of cities, the question of a credit-fueled housing bubble, the role of housing supply frictions and potential policy solutions. Given its scope, the book offers a revealing read and valuable guide for everyone involved in practical policymaking for housing markets, mortgage credit and financial stability.
Author: Edward M. Gramlich
Publisher: The Urban Insitute
ISBN: 9780877667391
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 124
Get Book Here
Book Description
Over the past decade, a new mortgage market offering loans at low interest rates and for little or no money down has given low-income people an opportunity to pursue the American dream of homeownership. The resulting wave in home buying promised to stabilize neighborhoods and families, boost the economy, and reduce crime. In many ways, the optimists were correct, but now, less than fifteen years later, the subprime mortgage market is collapsing, threatening to take the rest of the housing sector along with it.Subprime Mortgages: America's Latest Boom and Bust analyzes how the subprime market emerged, why it is in crisis, and how we can reform public policy to avert disaster. An attendant examination of the rental market also offers recommendations for shoring up what may be the best housing option for some families.
Author: Byron Lutz
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 1437940021
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 51
Get Book Here
Book Description
State and local government tax revenues dropped steeply following the most severe housing market contraction since the Great Depression. The authors identify five main channels through which the housing market affects state and local tax revenues: property tax revenues, transfer tax revenues, sales tax revenues, and personal income tax revenues. They find that property tax revenues do not tend to decrease following house price declines. The other four channels have had a relatively modest effect on state tax revenues. These channels jointly reduced tax revenues by $15 billion from 2005 to 2009, which is about 2% of total state own-source revenues in 2005. Charts and tables. This is a print on demand publication.
Author: Richard K. Green
Publisher: The Urban Insitute
ISBN: 9780877667025
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 240
Get Book Here
Book Description
The first book that explains the economics of housing policy for a general audience. Planners, government officials, and public policy students will find that the economic perspective is a very powerful and useful way to examine these issues. The authors provide a broad review of the market for housing services in the U.S., including a conceptual framework, an overview of housing demand and supply, methods for measuring prices and quantities, and sources of basic data on markets. They cover housing programs and polices, and offer answers to policy questions that are of current interest. The book has been field-tested in graduate and undergraduate courses in urban and housing economics at the University of Wisconsin, the University of California--Berkeley, The University of Pennsylvania, and others. This book is also sure to be useful to policymakers, advocates, economists, and anyone interested in a clear picture of how housing markets function. Published in cooperation with the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association (AREUEA).
Author: Federal Housing Federal Housing Finance Agency
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN: 9781523423477
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 26
Get Book Here
Book Description
We develop a theoretically-based statistical technique to identify a conservative lower bound for house prices. Leveraging a model based upon consumer and investor incentives, we are able to explain the depth of housing market downturns at both the national and state level over a variety of market environments. This approach performs well in several historical back tests and has strong out-of-sample predictive ability. When back-tested, our estimation approach does not understate house price declines in any state over the 1987 to 2001 housing cycle and only understates declines in three states during the most recent financial crisis. This latter result is particularly noteworthy given that the post-2001 estimates are performed out of- sample. Our measure of a conservative lower bound is attractive because it (1) provides a leading indicator of the severity of future downturns and (2) allows trough estimates to dynamically adjust as markets conditions change. This estimation technique could prove particularly helpful in measuring the credit risk associated with portfolios of mortgage assets as part of evaluating static stress tests or designing dynamic stress tests.
Author: Anthony O'Sullivan
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470680415
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 352
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book is a timely assessment of 20 years of progress in the field of housing economics and its application to policy and practice. Two decades on from the publication of Duncan Maclennan's influential Housing Economics, 16 leading housing experts - both academics and policy makers from across the world - now honour Maclennan's contributions. The chapters here present a contemporary survey of key issues in housing, from urban housing markets and sub-market modelling, to the economics of social housing, the basis for housing planning, economic analysis of neighbourhoods, and the connections between academic work and policy development. For students, researchers and practitioners in housing, urban economics and social policy, Housing Economics and Public Policy: . provides up to date and comprehensive reviews of major areas of the housing economics literature . sheds light on the economic, social and spatial processes that affect housing . includes discussion of major areas of cutting edge housing economics research and identifies continuing gaps . presents a synthesis of housing economics research on both sides of the Atlantic . assesses the impact of theory on policy and practice
