Unemployment Dynamics in Emerging Countries PDF Download
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Author: Jaroslav Horvath
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
This paper quantifies the impact of three key external shocks -- external demand, interest rate, and uncertainty shocks -- on emerging market economies (EMEs). We find that external shocks have a sizeable impact on macroeconomic fluctuations in EMEs and that a considerable fraction of this impact is through the domestic stock market. A decrease in external demand and an increase in external interest rate and uncertainty lead to a higher unemployment rate, lower stock market return, and a depreciation of the domestic currency. The EMEs' monetary policy actively responds to external shocks and dampens their impact on domestic activity.
Author: Jaroslav Horvath
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
This paper quantifies the impact of three key external shocks -- external demand, interest rate, and uncertainty shocks -- on emerging market economies (EMEs). We find that external shocks have a sizeable impact on macroeconomic fluctuations in EMEs and that a considerable fraction of this impact is through the domestic stock market. A decrease in external demand and an increase in external interest rate and uncertainty lead to a higher unemployment rate, lower stock market return, and a depreciation of the domestic currency. The EMEs' monetary policy actively responds to external shocks and dampens their impact on domestic activity.
Author: Ms.Emine Boz
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 147551249X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 51
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Book Description
Emerging economies are characterized by higher consumption and real wage variability relative to output and a strongly countercyclical current account. A real business cycle model of a small open economy that embeds a Mortensen-Pissarides type of search-matching frictions and countercyclical interest rate shocks can jointly account for these regularities. In the face of countercyclical interest rate shocks, search-matching frictions increase future employment uncertainty, improving workers’ incentive to save and generating a greater response of consumption and the current account. Higher consumption response in turn feeds into larger fluctuations in the workers’ bargaining power while the interest rates shocks lead to variations in the firms’ willingness to hire; both of which contribute to a highly variable real wage.
Author: Francis Vitek
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455202193
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 22
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Book Description
This paper analyzes the sources of output and unemployment dynamics in the world economy during the Great Recession. This analysis is based on a panel unobserved components model of the world economy, disaggregated into its fifteen largest national economies. We find that excess supply pressure was primarily transmitted from the output market to the labor market by economy specific combinations of negative domestic or foreign output demand shocks, mitigated to varying degrees by countercyclical labor market policies or institutions.
Author: Mariano Bosch
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Business Cycle
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
Abstract: The authors study the dynamics of three developing country labor markets using recent advances in the estimation of continuous time Markov processes. They first examine the flows of workers among five states: three types of paid labor, unemployment, and out of the labor force. The authors find a high degree of commonality in patterns of worker flows among the three countries and attempt to compare the flexibility of the markets by examining an index of overall mobility. Second, they seek to establish whether the issues of advanced country labor markets apply to developing country markets or whether the latter constitute a different phylum. Paralleling the mainstream literature on the role of being out of the labor force as discouraged unemployment, the authors then identify some common stylized facts about the role of the informal self-employed and salaried sectors and to what degree they serve as a holding pattern versus a desirable alternative to formal sector work. In the process, the authors identify very strong differences in mobility patterns between men and women and attempt to shed some light on whether these differences arise from discrimination or perhaps instead the constraints imposed by household responsibilities. Finally, they study labor market adjustment across the business cycle in Mexico and identify patterns of job creation and destruction among the three paid sectors and confirm the mainstream view of the role of out of the labor force as a procyclical phenomenon.
Author: Francesco Bartolucci
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
We design a new specification of Okun's model that takes the following features into account: estimation of the relation in first differences, the possible lagged effect of GDP dynamics on unemployment changes, the persistence of unemployment rate dynamics, the possible different values of Okun coefficients under recession (with respect to periods of increases in GDP), the existence of cross-country institutional and structural differences (i.e. country-specific Okun coefficients), the additional effect on unemployment caused by large adverse shocks such as financial crises. A distinctive feature of this article is its consideration of a large set of countries for which we find differentiated Okun coefficients. Moreover, we focus in particular on the distinction between developed and developing countries, and on the additional impact of financial crises. From an econometric point of view, the model developed belongs in the family of linear mixed-effects models. The estimation method uses an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. Our results confirm the general validity of 'Okun's law'; they show the Okun coefficient differences between high- and low-income countries; and they evidence an additional impact of some types of financial crisis on the unemployment dynamics of developed economies.
Author: Alan Finkelstein Shapiro
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475563647
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
Emerging economies have high shares of self-employed individuals running owner-only firms who, in contrast to many salaried firms, have little access to formal financing and therefore rely on informal financing (input credit) from other firms. We build a small open economy real business cycle model with labor and financial market frictions where formal credit markets, informal credit, and the structure of the labor market interact. The model successfully replicates the cyclical behavior of sectoral employment, formal credit, and the main macroeconomic aggregates in emerging economies. We show that a countercyclical macroprudential policy that reduces formal credit fluctuations has positive though quantitatively limited effects on consumption and output volatility, but generates larger unemployment fluctuations in response to productivity shocks; the same policy increases labor market and aggregate volatility in response to net worth shocks. The link between input credit and the labor market structure---key for capturing the cyclical dynamics of labor and credit markets in the data---plays a crucial role for these results.
Author: Carlos Henrique Corseuil
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We implement decompositions of cyclical unemployment in a large developing country using the conventional 3-states and a 4-states representation of the labor market, where in the latter we subdivide the employment state into formal and informal forms of employment. This allows a richer analysis of the dynamics of unemployment that unveils the role played by the inflows and outflows from and into the formal and informal sectors. Results for the 3-states representation show that job separation play a much larger role than job finding, a result that differs from what is found for the U.S. The 4-states decomposition unveils that the contribution of the flow from informality to unemployment is larger than that of the flow from formal jobs. This evinces that job separations from the informal sector do play a role in explaining variations in the unemployment rate along the cycle. Opposite results are revealed for the job finding rate, where the formal sector displays a much larger contribution than the informal sector. We also compare the model performance of the 3- and 4-states representations and show that for many indicators the latter is superior to the former.
Author: Khalid Sekkat
Publisher: IDRC
ISBN: 1441912088
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 181
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Book Description
To what degree are trade liberalization, productivity, and economic growth correlated? Can economic policies designed to encourage competition and curtail industry protection result in large-scale improvements, such as increased innovation and reduced unemployment? After 20 years of economic reform in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), economic performance is still lagging behind many regions of the world. Even in those countries that are the most advanced in implementing reforms, including Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia, industries with low productivity growth and high market power continue to dominate. Moreover, the termination of the Multi-Fiber Agreement and the negotiations concerning further liberalization of trade in agricultural products (under the framework of the World Trade Organization) put these and other countries under pressure of fierce competition from emerging nations. Recent empirical evidence on the impact of reforms in a number of developing countries shows that such persistence of inefficiency and market power is specific to MENA. Showcasing in-depth analyses from Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, and Turkey (with comparative data from Asia and Latin America), this book focuses on the dynamics of firm entry and exit to help explain the low productivity of the region. The results suggest a number of policy recommendations designed to foster competition, which, in turn, would contribute to innovation, productivity growth, and improved return on capital investments. The book not only reveals important correlations among policy and market factors in MENA, but suggests fruitful areas of research in other developing regions of the world.
Author: Zidong An
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616356049
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 22
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Book Description
The negative and stable relationship between an economy’s aggregate demand conditions and overall unemployment is well-documented. We show that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the cyclical sensitivities of unemployment across worker and economy groups. First, unemployment is more than twice as sensitive to aggregate demand in advanced as in emerging market and developing economies. Second, youth’s unemployment is twice as sensitive as that of adults’. Third, women’s unemployment is significantly less sensitive to demand than men’s in advanced economies. These findings point to the highly unequal impacts of the business cycle across worker and economy groups.
Author: Khalid Sekkat
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9781441910363
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 164
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Book Description
To what degree are trade liberalization, productivity, and economic growth correlated? Can economic policies designed to encourage competition and curtail industry protection result in large-scale improvements, such as increased innovation and reduced unemployment? After 20 years of economic reform in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), economic performance is still lagging behind many regions of the world. Even in those countries that are the most advanced in implementing reforms, including Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia, industries with low productivity growth and high market power continue to dominate. Moreover, the termination of the Multi-Fiber Agreement and the negotiations concerning further liberalization of trade in agricultural products (under the framework of the World Trade Organization) put these and other countries under pressure of fierce competition from emerging nations. Recent empirical evidence on the impact of reforms in a number of developing countries shows that such persistence of inefficiency and market power is specific to MENA. Showcasing in-depth analyses from Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, and Turkey (with comparative data from Asia and Latin America), this book focuses on the dynamics of firm entry and exit to help explain the low productivity of the region. The results suggest a number of policy recommendations designed to foster competition, which, in turn, would contribute to innovation, productivity growth, and improved return on capital investments. The book not only reveals important correlations among policy and market factors in MENA, but suggests fruitful areas of research in other developing regions of the world.
