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Author: Paul K. Davis
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 9780833058768
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 270
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Book Description
Using and testing a conceptual model that draws on social science and particularly social movement theory, this volume examines public support for al-Qa'ida's transnational jihadist movement, the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in Turkey, and the Maoist insurgency in Nepal. The authors discuss which factors were most salient across cases, how their importance varied in each case, and how this understanding can inform strategy.
Author: Paul K. Davis
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 9780833058768
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 270
Get Book Here
Book Description
Using and testing a conceptual model that draws on social science and particularly social movement theory, this volume examines public support for al-Qa'ida's transnational jihadist movement, the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in Turkey, and the Maoist insurgency in Nepal. The authors discuss which factors were most salient across cases, how their importance varied in each case, and how this understanding can inform strategy.
Author: Paul K. Davis
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 9780833079190
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This report builds on earlier RAND research (e.g., Understanding and Influencing Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism, 2012) that reviewed and integrated social science relevant to terrorism and insurgency. That research used qualitative conceptual causal models called 0́factor trees0́+ to identify the factors that contribute to various aspects of terrorism or insurgency at a slice in time and how the factors relate to each other qualitatively. This report goes beyond the conceptual and qualitative by specifying a prototype uncertainty-sensitive computational model for one of the factor trees from the earlier research, one that describes public support for terrorism and insurgency. The authors first detail their approach to designing such a model, emphasizing the challenges they encountered in assigning mathematical meaning to the factor tree0́9s numerous factors and subfactors, identifying suitable 0́−building block0́+ combining algorithms, and the uncertainty in their values and the relationships among them. They then describe how they implemented the model in a high-level visual-programming environment, show how the model can be used for exploratory analysis under uncertainty, and discuss their initial experience with it. Methodologically, the work illustrates a new approach to causal, uncertainty-and-context-sensitive, social-science modeling. It also illustrates how such models can be reviewable, reusable, and potentially composable.
Author: Paul K. Davis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Counterinsurgency
Languages : en
Pages : 39
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Book Description
This working paper collects material submitted by the author as contributions to DoD's Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment project on violent extremist organizations. It discusses a systems approach, a spectrum of influence approaches, seeing influence strategy as involving a set of different influence approaches with different audiences, the sources of knowledge to inform strategy, decision aids, and an application to understanding and influencing public support of insurgency and terrorism.
Author: Bard E. O'Neill
Publisher: Manas Publications
ISBN: 9788170492849
Category : Guerrilla warfare
Languages : en
Pages : 248
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Book Description
A Systematic, Comprehensive, And Straightforward Book That Analyse And Compares Insurgencies And Terrorist Movements. It Covers Activity That Has Since Occurred In Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, China, Burma, Iraq, Sudan, The Philippines, Colombia, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, And Elsewhere And Highlights The New Tactics And Weapons Used By Insurgent Groups Including Al Qaida - And Threatened. Author Bard E. O'Neill, The Director Of Studies Of Insurgencies And Revolution At The National War College, Addresses Insurgencies With Respect To Ultimate Goals, Strategies, Organization, The Role And Means Of Acquiring Popular Support, Causes And Effects Of Disunity, Types Of External Support, And Government Responses. To Suppress Terrorism, To Undermine Terrorism'S Ideological Support, And To Win The War Of Ideas, A National Security Expert Needs Some Of The Better Ideas Found In This Book. Thus The Book Is Also An Ideal Textbook For Soldiers, Analysts, Students, And Scholars Who Seek A Better Understanding Of Contemporary Conflicts. ( Published In Collaboration With Potomac Books, Inc. Formerly Brassey S, Inc.)
Author: Daniel Byman
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 0833032321
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 163
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Book Description
The most useful forms of outside support for an insurgent movement include safe havens, financial support, political backing, and direct military assistance. Because states are able to provide all of these types of assistance, their support has had a profound impact on the effectiveness of many rebel movements since the end of the Cold War. However, state support is no longer the only, or indeed necessarily the most important, game in town. Diasporas have played a particularly important role in sustaining several strong insurgencies. More rarely, refugees, guerrilla groups, or other types of non-state supporters play a significant role in creating or sustaining an insurgency, offering fighters, training, or other forms of assistance. This report assesses post-Cold War trends in external support for insurgent movements. It describes the frequency that states, diasporas, refugees, and other non-state actors back guerrilla movements. It also assesses the motivations of these actors and which types of support matter most. This book concludes by assessing the implications for analysts of insurgent movements.
Author: Bruce R. Pirnie
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 0833045849
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 135
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Book Description
Examines the deleterious effects of the U.S. failure to focus on protecting the Iraqi population for most of the military campaign in Iraq and analyzes the failure of a technologically driven counterinsurgency (COIN) approach. It outlines strategic considerations relative to COIN; presents an overview of the conflict in Iraq; describes implications for future operations; and offers recommendations to improve the U.S. capability to conduct COIN.
Author:
Publisher: Government Printing Office
ISBN: 9780160915574
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 292
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Book Description
Compares the reasons for and the responses to the insurgencies in Afghanistan and Pakistan since October 2001. Also examines the lack of security and the support of insurgent groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan since the 1970s that explain the rise of the Pakistan-supported Taliban. Explores the border tribal areas between the two countries and how they influence regional stability and U.S. security. Explains the implications of what happened during this 10-year period to provide candid insights on the prospects and risks associated with bringing a durable stability to this area of the world.
Author: Matthew Hoddie
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226351254
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 258
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Book Description
Among the more frequent and most devastating of conflicts, civil wars—from Yugoslavia to Congo—frequently reignite and even spill over into the international sphere. Given the inherent fragility of civil war peace agreements, innovative approaches must be taken to ensure the successful resolution of these conflicts. Strengthening Peace in Post–Civil War States provides both analytical frameworks and a series of critical case studies demonstrating the effectiveness of a range of strategies for keeping the peace. Coeditors Matthew Hoddie and Caroline A. Hartzell here contend that lasting peace relies on aligning the self-interest of individuals and communities with the society-wide goal of ending war; if citizens and groups have a stake in peace, they will seek to maintain and defend it. The rest of the contributors explore two complementary approaches toward achieving this goal: restructuring domestic institutions and soft intervention. Some essays examine the first tactic, which involves reforming governments that failed to prevent war, while others discuss the second, an umbrella term for a number of non-military strategies for outside actors to assist in keeping the peace.
Author: Christopher Paul
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 9780833080547
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
When a country is threatened by an insurgency, what efforts give its government the best chance of prevailing? Contemporary discourse on this subject is voluminous and often contentious. Advice for the counterinsurgent is often based on little more than common sense, a general understanding of history, or a handful of detailed examples, instead of a solid, systematically collected body of historical evidence. A 2010 RAND study challenged this trend with rigorous analyses of all 30 insurgencies that started and ended between 1978 and 2008. This update to that original study expanded the data set, adding 41 new cases and comparing all 71 insurgencies begun and completed worldwide since World War II. With many more cases to compare, the study was able to more rigorously test the previous findings and address critical questions that the earlier study could not. For example, it could examine the approaches that led counterinsurgency forces to prevail when an external actor was involved in the conflict. It was also able to address questions about timing and duration, such as which factors affect the duration of insurgencies and the durability of the resulting peace, as well as how long historical counterinsurgency forces had to engage in effective practices before they won.
Author: Feisal al-Istrabadi
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
ISBN: 0815732171
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 272
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Book Description
Looking to the future in confronting the Islamic State The Islamic State (best known in the West as ISIS or ISIL) has been active for less than a decade, but it has already been the subject of numerous histories and academic studies—all focus primarily on the past. The Future of ISIS is the first major study to look ahead: what are the prospects for the Islamic State in the near term, and what can the global community, including the United States, do to counter it? Edited by two distinguished scholars at Indiana University, the book examines how ISIS will affect not only the Middle East but the global order. Specific chapters deal with such questions as whether and how ISIS benefitted from intelligence failures, and what can be done to correct any such failures; how to confront the alarmingly broad appeal of Islamic State ideology; the role of local and regional actors in confronting ISIS; and determining U.S. interests in preventing ISIS from gaining influence and controlling territory. Given the urgency of the topic, The Future of ISIS is of interest to policymakers, analysts, and students of international affairs and public policy.
