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Author: Limor Samimian-Darash
Publisher: Cornell University Press
ISBN: 1501762478
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 188
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Book Description
In Uncertainty by Design Limor Samimian-Darash presents cases of the use of scenario technology in the fields of security and emergency preparedness, energy, and health by analyzing scenario narratives and practices at the National Emergency Management Authority in Israel, the World Health Organization's Regional Office for Europe, and the World Energy Council. Humankind has long struggled with the uncertainty of the future, with how to foresee the future, imagine alternatives, or prepare for and guard against undesirable eventualities. Scenario—or scenario planning—emerged in recent decades to become a widespread means through which states, large corporations, and local organizations imagine and prepare for the future. The scenario technology cases examined in Uncertainty by Design provide a useful lens through which to view contemporary efforts to engage in an overall journey of discovering the future, along with the modality of governing involved in these endeavors to face future uncertainties. Collectively, they enable us to understand in depth how scenarios express a new governing modality.
Author: Limor Samimian-Darash
Publisher: Cornell University Press
ISBN: 1501762478
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 188
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Book Description
In Uncertainty by Design Limor Samimian-Darash presents cases of the use of scenario technology in the fields of security and emergency preparedness, energy, and health by analyzing scenario narratives and practices at the National Emergency Management Authority in Israel, the World Health Organization's Regional Office for Europe, and the World Energy Council. Humankind has long struggled with the uncertainty of the future, with how to foresee the future, imagine alternatives, or prepare for and guard against undesirable eventualities. Scenario—or scenario planning—emerged in recent decades to become a widespread means through which states, large corporations, and local organizations imagine and prepare for the future. The scenario technology cases examined in Uncertainty by Design provide a useful lens through which to view contemporary efforts to engage in an overall journey of discovering the future, along with the modality of governing involved in these endeavors to face future uncertainties. Collectively, they enable us to understand in depth how scenarios express a new governing modality.
Author: Greg Costikyan
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262018969
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 150
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Book Description
How uncertainty in games -- from Super Mario Bros. to Rock/Paper/Scissors -- engages players and shapes play experiences.
Author: Efstratios Nikolaidis
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9781138115095
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 538
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Book Description
Today's business environment involves design decisions with significant uncertainty. To succeed, decision-makers should replace deterministic methods with a risk-based approach that accounts for the decision maker¿s risk tolerance. In many problems, it is impractical to collect data because rare or one-time events are involved. Therefore, we need a methodology to model uncertainty and make choices when we have limited information. This methodology must use all available information and rely only on assumptions that are supported by evidence. This book explains theories and tools to represent uncertainty using both data and expert judgment. It teaches the reader how to make design or business decisions when there is limited information with these tools. Readers will learn a structured, risk-based approach, which is based on common sense principles, for design and business decisions. These decisions are consistent with the decision-maker¿s risk attitude. The book is exceptionally suited as educational material because it uses everyday language and real-life examples to elucidate concepts. It demonstrates how these concepts touch our lives through many practical examples, questions and exercises. These are designed to help students learn that first they should understand a problem and then establish a strategy for solving it, instead of using trial-and-error approaches. This volume is intended for undergraduate and graduate courses in mechanical, civil, industrial, aerospace, and ocean engineering and for researchers and professionals in these disciplines. It will also benefit managers and students in business administration who want to make good decisions with limited information.
Author: Bo Bergman
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 047074880X
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 214
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Book Description
Based on deep theoretical as well as practical experience in Reliability and Quality Sciences, Robust Design Methodology for Reliability constructively addresses practical reliability problems. It offers a comprehensive design theory for reliability, utilizing robust design methodology and six sigma frameworks. In particular, the relation between un-reliability and variation and uncertainty is explored and reliability improvement measures in early product development stages are suggested. Many companies today utilise design for Six Sigma (DfSS) for strategic improvement of the design process, but often without explicitly describing the reliability perspective; this book explains how reliability design can relate to and work with DfSS and illustrates this with real–world problems. The contributors advocate designing for robustness, i.e. insensitivity to variation in the early stages of product design development. Methods for rational treatment of uncertainties in model assumptions are also presented. This book promotes a new approach to reliability thinking that addresses the design process and proneness to failure in the design phase via sensitivity to variation and uncertainty; includes contributions from both academics and industry practitioners with a broad scope of expertise, including quality science, mathematical statistics and reliability engineering; takes the innovative approach of promoting the study of variation and uncertainty as a basis for reliability work; includes case studies and illustrative examples that translate the theory into practice. Robust Design Methodology for Reliability provides a starting point for new thinking in practical reliability improvement work that will appeal to advanced designers and reliability specialists in academia and industry including fatigue engineers, product development and process/ quality professionals, especially those interested in and/ or using the DfSS framework.
Author: Efstratios Nikolaidis
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 0203483936
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 1216
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Book Description
Researchers in the engineering industry and academia are making important advances on reliability-based design and modeling of uncertainty when data is limited. Non deterministic approaches have enabled industries to save billions by reducing design and warranty costs and by improving quality. Considering the lack of comprehensive and defini
Author: Andrea Kahn
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 0429514433
Category : Architecture
Languages : en
Pages : 391
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Book Description
In the era of the Anthropocene, site matters are more pressing than ever. Building on the concepts, theories, and multi-disciplinary approaches raised in the first edition, this publication strives to address the changes that have taken place over the last 15 years with new material to complement and re-position the initial volume. Reaching across design disciplines, this highly illustrated anthology assembles essays from architects, landscape architects, urban designers, planners, historians, and artists to explore ways to physically and conceptually engage site. Thoughtful discourse and empirically grounded pieces combine to provide the language and theory to contextualize the meanings of site in the built environment. The increasingly complex hybridity of constructed environments today demands new tools for thinking about and working with site. Drawing contributions from outside and within the traditional design disciplines, this edition will trace important developments in site thinking with new essays on topics such as climate change, landscape as infrastructure, shifts from global to planetary urbanization debates, and the proliferation of participatory site transformation practices. Edited by two leading practitioners and academics, Site Matters juxtaposes timeless contributions from individuals including Elizabeth Meyer, Robert Beauregard, and Robin Dripps with original new writings from Peter Marcuse, Jane Wolff, Neil Brenner, and Thaisa Way, amongst others, to recontextualize and reignite the debate around site. An ideal text for students, academics, and researchers interested in site and design theory.
Author: Gudela Grote
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1848823738
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 199
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Book Description
As I write, the financial systems of the world are collapsing with still no clear indication of what the consequences will be and which measures should be taken to avoid such a crisis in the future. There seems to be agreement though, that the financial instruments introduced in the past few decades entailed far too much complexity and uncertainty and that there was too little regulatory control over the use of these instruments. Management of uncertainty with the aim of achieving self-control is the core concern of this book. It was not written with a focus on financial systems, but many concepts developed in this book are applicable to this field as well. The - neric principles of reducing, maintaining or increasing uncertainties in view of the different contingencies an organization is faced with, the fundamental issue of how much control is possible and who should be in control, and the question of how much and what kind of regulation is necessary with the overall aim of finding an appropriate balance between system stability and flexibility are at the centre of heated debates on the future of finance.
Author: Vaughn Tan
Publisher: Columbia University Press
ISBN: 0231551878
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 296
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Book Description
Innovation is how businesses stay ahead of the competition and adapt to market conditions that change in unpredictable and uncertain ways. In the first decade of the twenty-first century, high-end cuisine underwent a profound transformation. Once an industry that prioritized consistency and reliability, it turned into one where constant change was a competitive necessity. A top restaurant’s reputation and success have become so closely bound up with its ability to innovate that a new organizational form, the culinary research and development team, has emerged. The best of these R&D teams continually expand the frontiers of food—they invent a constant stream of new dishes, new cooking processes and methods, and even new ways of experiencing food. How do they achieve this nonstop novelty? And what can culinary research and development teach us about how organizations innovate? Vaughn Tan opens up the black box of elite culinary R&D to provide essential insights. Drawing on years of unprecedented access to the best and most influential culinary R&D teams in the world, he reveals how they exemplify what he calls the uncertainty mindset. Such a mindset intentionally incorporates uncertainty into organization design rather than simply trying to reduce risk. It changes how organizations hire, set goals, and motivate team members and leads organizations to work in highly unconventional ways. A revelatory look at the R&D kitchen, The Uncertainty Mindset upends conventional wisdom about how to organize for innovation and offers practical insights for businesses trying to become innovative and adaptable.
Author: Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262351404
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 521
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Book Description
A comprehensive introduction to optimization with a focus on practical algorithms for the design of engineering systems. This book offers a comprehensive introduction to optimization with a focus on practical algorithms. The book approaches optimization from an engineering perspective, where the objective is to design a system that optimizes a set of metrics subject to constraints. Readers will learn about computational approaches for a range of challenges, including searching high-dimensional spaces, handling problems where there are multiple competing objectives, and accommodating uncertainty in the metrics. Figures, examples, and exercises convey the intuition behind the mathematical approaches. The text provides concrete implementations in the Julia programming language. Topics covered include derivatives and their generalization to multiple dimensions; local descent and first- and second-order methods that inform local descent; stochastic methods, which introduce randomness into the optimization process; linear constrained optimization, when both the objective function and the constraints are linear; surrogate models, probabilistic surrogate models, and using probabilistic surrogate models to guide optimization; optimization under uncertainty; uncertainty propagation; expression optimization; and multidisciplinary design optimization. Appendixes offer an introduction to the Julia language, test functions for evaluating algorithm performance, and mathematical concepts used in the derivation and analysis of the optimization methods discussed in the text. The book can be used by advanced undergraduates and graduate students in mathematics, statistics, computer science, any engineering field, (including electrical engineering and aerospace engineering), and operations research, and as a reference for professionals.
Author: Han-Xiong Li
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118822331
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 264
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Book Description
Most existing robust design books address design for static systems, or achieve robust design from experimental data via the Taguchi method. Little work considers model information for robust design particularly for the dynamic system. This book covers robust design for both static and dynamic systems using the nominal model information or the hybrid model/data information, and also integrates design with control under a large operating region. This design can handle strong nonlinearity and more uncertainties from model and parameters.
