Uncertainty, Redistribution, and the Labor Market PDF Download
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Author: Casey B. Mulligan
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Uncertainty and its composition can affect the demand for social insurance, and thereby the labor market. This paper shows that small to medium-sized increases in uncertainty or risk aversion are enough to recommend an expansion of the safety net that would be broadly similar to the actual safety net expansions, which significantly depressed the labor market. Labor market effects of uncertainty through investment and insurance channels are also examined with employer and employee labor wedges.
Author: Casey B. Mulligan
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Uncertainty and its composition can affect the demand for social insurance, and thereby the labor market. This paper shows that small to medium-sized increases in uncertainty or risk aversion are enough to recommend an expansion of the safety net that would be broadly similar to the actual safety net expansions, which significantly depressed the labor market. Labor market effects of uncertainty through investment and insurance channels are also examined with employer and employee labor wedges.
Author: Casey B. Mulligan
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199942218
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 364
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Book Description
"Major subsidies and regulations intended to help the poor and unemployed were changed in more than a dozen ways after 2007. Economist Casey B. Mulligan argues that many of these changes were reasonable reactions to economic events, with the intention of helping people endure the recession, but they also reduced incentives for people to work and businesses to hire. He measures the startling changes in implicit tax rates that resulted from a labyrinth of new and expanded 'social safety net' programs, and quantifies the effects of these changes on the labor market and the economy. He also reveals how borrowers can expect their earnings to affect the amount that lenders will forgive in debt renegotiation, and how this has acted as a massive implicit tax on earning. He explains how redistribution in the forms of subsidies, taxes and minimum-wage laws profoundly altered the path of the economy and made the recent recession one of the deepest and longest in decades. The Redistribution Recession is a controversial, clear-cut, and thoroughly researched analysis of the effects of various government policies on the labor market. It offers ground-breaking interpretations and precise explanations of the interplay between unemployment and financial markets."--Jacket.
Author: Neil Ware White (IV)
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 276
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Book Description
This dissertation examines the impacts on the labor market of monetary policy and macroeconomic uncertainty. The first chapter examines how monetary policy shocks in the U.S. affect the flows of workers among three labor market categories--employment, unemployment, and non-participation--and assesses each flow's relative importance to changes in labor market "stock'' variables like the unemployment rate. I find that job loss accounts for the largest portion of monetary policy's effect on labor markets. I develop a New Keynesian model that incorporates these channels and show how a central bank can achieve welfare gains from targeting job loss, rather than output, in an otherwise standard Taylor rule. The second chapter examines the role of monetary policy in "job polarization.'' I argue that contractionary monetary policy has accelerated the decline of employment in routine occupations, which largely affected workers with a high-school degree but no college. In part by disproportionately affecting industries with high shares of routine occupations, contractionary monetary policy shocks lead to large and persistent shifts away from routine employment. Expansionary shocks, on the other hand, have little effect on these industries. Indeed, monetary policy's effect on overall employment is concentrated in routine jobs. These results highlight monetary policy's role in generating fluctuations not only in the level of employment, but also the composition of employment across occupations and industries. The third chapter introduces new direct measures of uncertainty derived from the Michigan Survey of Consumers. The series underlying these new measures are more strongly correlated with economic activity than many other series that are the basis for uncertainty proxies. The survey also facilitates comparison with response dispersion or disagreement, a commonly used proxy for uncertainty in the literature. Dispersion measures have low or negative correlation with direct measures of uncertainty and often have causal effects of opposite sign, suggesting that they are poor proxies for uncertainty. For the measures based on series most closely correlated with economic activity, positive uncertainty shocks are mildly expansionary. This result is robust across identification and estimation strategies and is consistent with "growth options'' theories of the effects of uncertainty.
Author: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484397657
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
The Fund has recognized in recent years that one cannot separate issues of economic growth and stability on one hand and equality on the other. Indeed, there is a strong case for considering inequality and an inability to sustain economic growth as two sides of the same coin. Central to the Fund’s mandate is providing advice that will enable members’ economies to grow on a sustained basis. But the Fund has rightly been cautious about recommending the use of redistributive policies given that such policies may themselves undercut economic efficiency and the prospects for sustained growth (the so-called “leaky bucket” hypothesis written about by the famous Yale economist Arthur Okun in the 1970s). This SDN follows up the previous SDN on inequality and growth by focusing on the role of redistribution. It finds that, from the perspective of the best available macroeconomic data, there is not a lot of evidence that redistribution has in fact undercut economic growth (except in extreme cases). One should be careful not to assume therefore—as Okun and others have—that there is a big tradeoff between redistribution and growth. The best available macroeconomic data do not support such a conclusion.
Author: Sylvain Leduc
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Natalia Komarovskaia
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Due to stagflation, there was a significant deterioration in the global forecast for labor markets for 2022 (according to the International Labor Organization, employment in 2023 should grow by 1.0% compared to a 2.3% growth rate in 2022). The main reasons for stagflation include the uneven recovery from the pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine. Supply chain constraints persist, resulting in negative shifts in supply curves in commodity and food markets and a corresponding increase in prices. As nominal wages remain at the same level, real labor incomes have declined. In the face of constant high uncertainty, there has been a drop in consumer confidence and a reduction in investment, especially in small and medium-sized businesses. Accordingly, in the AD-AS macroeconomic model, in addition to a left-up shift along the aggregate demand curve, there was also a shift of the aggregate demand curve to the left (negative AD shock) due to a fall in such AD components as consumer spending (C) and private investment (I). Tight monetary policy, which central banks are forced to implement to fight inflation, could exacerbate the reduction in investment spending. As a result, many countries have yet to return to employment levels and hours of work at the end of 2019 (before the COVID-19 crisis).While Europe and Central Asia have been the hardest hit economically by the conflict in Ukraine, although employment is projected to fall in these regions in 2023, unemployment will rise modestly, due to limited growth in the working-age population. In general, the trend of population aging in developed countries and in many emerging markets is shifting supply curves in labor markets to the left, which may offset the effects of lower labor demand on the size of equilibrium wage rates, but will negatively affect the number of jobs. In connection with the reduction in the supply of labor, the real options effect, which leads to the fact that firms are reluctant to hire new workers in conditions of uncertainty, is superimposed by the reluctance of firms to part with valuable employees.Unemployment in Russia in February 2023 decreased to 3.5% from 3.6% recorded in January, having updated its historical low for the second time since the beginning of the year (over the period of observation of the indicator since 1991). This paradoxical result became possible, firstly, due to the fact that the size of the labor force decreased due to mobilization, and, secondly, due to the fact that the employed included those who entered the military service under the contract, previously working in informal sector.
Author: Brendan Burchell
Publisher: Psychology Press
ISBN: 9780415236539
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 244
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Book Description
Table of Contents List of illustrations List of contributors Acknowledgements Introduction 1 1 More pressure, less protection 8 2 Flexibility and the reorganisation of work 39 3 The prevalence and redistribution of job insecurity and work intensification 61 4 Disappearing pathways and the struggle for a fair day's pay 77 5 Job insecurity and work intensification: the effects on health and well-being 92 6 The intensification of everyday life 112 7 The organisational costs of job insecurity and work intensification 137 8 Stress intervention: what can managers do? 154 9 What can governments do? 172 Appendices 185 Notes 189 References 206 Index 222.
Author: Malak Kandoussi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Recent events suggest that uncertainty changes play a major role in U.S. labor market fluctuations. This study analyzes the impact of uncertainty shocks on unemployment dynamics. Using a vector autoregression approach, we show that uncertainty shocks measured by stock market volatility have a significant impact on the U.S. unemployment rate. We then develop a quantitative version of the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides (DMP) model, in which uncertainty shocks hit the economy. Given the significant nonlinearities of the DMP model, we show that the introduction of uncertainty shocks not only allows this textbook model to account for observed characteristics of the U.S. labor market dynamics, with reasonable values for calibrated parameters, but also for the impact of rare episodes such as economic crises.
Author: Peter B. Doeringer
Publisher: M.E. Sharpe
ISBN: 9780765632128
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 258
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Book Description
This book discusses the institutional aspects of the American labor market. The introduction assesses the major changes since 1971.
Author: Xavier Giroud
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Local labor market shocks are difficult to insure against. Using confidential micro data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Longitudinal Business Database, we document that firms redistribute the employment impacts of local demand shocks across regions through their internal networks of establishments. During the Great Recession, the massive decline in house prices caused a sharp drop in consumer demand, leading to large employment losses in the non-tradable sector. Consistent with firms smoothing out the impacts of these shocks across regions, we find large elasticities of non-tradable establishment-level employment with respect to house prices in other counties in which the firm has establishments. At the same time, establishments of firms with larger regional networks exhibit lower employment elasticities with respect to local house prices in the establishment's own county. To account for general equilibrium adjustments, we aggregate non-tradable employment at the county level. Similar to what we found at the establishment level, we find that non-tradable county-level employment responds strongly to local demand shocks in other counties linked through firms' internal networks. These results are not driven by direct demand spillovers from nearby counties, common shocks to house prices, or local demand shocks affecting non-tradable employment in distant counties indirectly via the trade channel. Our results suggest that firms play an important role in the extent to which local labor market risks are shared across regions.
