Uncertainty and Expectation

Uncertainty and Expectation PDF Author: Gerald Ashley
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470864702
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 188

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Book Description
In this entertaining and thoughtful book, Gerald Ashley sets out to explain what trading is, and lays out a modus operandi for being a trader and investor. He draws upon market anecdotes and examples from the past, seeking to debunk many myths surrounding financial markets, and to try and make the reader understand the real processes, risks and rewards that drive investment. In particular he examines ideas in market and individual investor behaviour, and questions the usefulness of many of todays standard investment techniques including benchmarks, charts, analysts and 'gurus'. He also lays out simple precepts for understanding investment risk and suggests ideas for managing your investments in today's markets.

Uncertainty and Expectation

Uncertainty and Expectation PDF Author: Gerald Ashley
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470864702
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 188

Get Book Here

Book Description
In this entertaining and thoughtful book, Gerald Ashley sets out to explain what trading is, and lays out a modus operandi for being a trader and investor. He draws upon market anecdotes and examples from the past, seeking to debunk many myths surrounding financial markets, and to try and make the reader understand the real processes, risks and rewards that drive investment. In particular he examines ideas in market and individual investor behaviour, and questions the usefulness of many of todays standard investment techniques including benchmarks, charts, analysts and 'gurus'. He also lays out simple precepts for understanding investment risk and suggests ideas for managing your investments in today's markets.

Nonlinear Expectations and Stochastic Calculus under Uncertainty

Nonlinear Expectations and Stochastic Calculus under Uncertainty PDF Author: Shige Peng
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3662599031
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 216

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Book Description
This book is focused on the recent developments on problems of probability model uncertainty by using the notion of nonlinear expectations and, in particular, sublinear expectations. It provides a gentle coverage of the theory of nonlinear expectations and related stochastic analysis. Many notions and results, for example, G-normal distribution, G-Brownian motion, G-Martingale representation theorem, and related stochastic calculus are first introduced or obtained by the author. This book is based on Shige Peng’s lecture notes for a series of lectures given at summer schools and universities worldwide. It starts with basic definitions of nonlinear expectations and their relation to coherent measures of risk, law of large numbers and central limit theorems under nonlinear expectations, and develops into stochastic integral and stochastic calculus under G-expectations. It ends with recent research topic on G-Martingale representation theorem and G-stochastic integral for locally integrable processes. With exercises to practice at the end of each chapter, this book can be used as a graduate textbook for students in probability theory and mathematical finance. Each chapter also concludes with a section Notes and Comments, which gives history and further references on the material covered in that chapter. Researchers and graduate students interested in probability theory and mathematical finance will find this book very useful.

Post Keynesian Economics

Post Keynesian Economics PDF Author: T. Palley
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230374123
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 253

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Book Description
This book provides an important and original statement of Post Keynesian macroeconomic theory, focusing on the significance of privately created inside debts and income distribution for the determination of economic activity. The material is presented in a clear and accessible format

Term Expectation and Uncertainty in Human Decision Behavior

Term Expectation and Uncertainty in Human Decision Behavior PDF Author: Jerry D. Tate
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 28

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Book Description


Optimal Control, Expectations and Uncertainty

Optimal Control, Expectations and Uncertainty PDF Author: Sean Holly
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 0521264448
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 258

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Book Description
An examination of how the rational expectations revolution and game theory have enhanced the understanding of how an economy functions.

Understanding Uncertainty

Understanding Uncertainty PDF Author: Dennis V. Lindley
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118650123
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 434

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Book Description
Praise for the First Edition "...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty." —Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made. Featuring new material, the Revised Edition remains the go-to guide for uncertainty and decision making, providing further applications at an accessible level including: A critical study of transitivity, a basic concept in probability A discussion of how the failure of the financial sector to use the proper approach to uncertainty may have contributed to the recent recession A consideration of betting, showing that a bookmaker's odds are not expressions of probability Applications of the book’s thesis to statistics A demonstration that some techniques currently popular in statistics, like significance tests, may be unsound, even seriously misleading, because they violate the rules of probability Understanding Uncertainty, Revised Edition is ideal for students studying probability or statistics and for anyone interested in one of the most fascinating and vibrant fields of study in contemporary science and mathematics.

Risk, Uncertainty and Profit

Risk, Uncertainty and Profit PDF Author: Frank H. Knight
Publisher: Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN: 1602060053
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 401

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Book Description
A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

Uncertainty, Expectations, and Financial Instability

Uncertainty, Expectations, and Financial Instability PDF Author: Eric Barthalon
Publisher: Columbia University Press
ISBN: 0231538308
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 445

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Book Description
Eric Barthalon applies the neglected theory of psychological time and memory decay of Nobel Prize–winning economist Maurice Allais (1911–2010) to model investors' psychology in the present context of recurrent financial crises. Shaped by the behavior of the demand for money during episodes of hyperinflation, Allais's theory suggests economic agents perceive the flow of clocks' time and forget the past at a context-dependent pace: rapidly in the presence of persistent and accelerating inflation and slowly in the event of the opposite situation. Barthalon recasts Allais's work as a general theory of "expectations" under uncertainty, narrowing the gap between economic theory and investors' behavior. Barthalon extends Allais's theory to the field of financial instability, demonstrating its relevance to nominal interest rates in a variety of empirical scenarios and the positive nonlinear feedback that exists between asset price inflation and the demand for risky assets. Reviewing the works of the leading protagonists in the expectations controversy, Barthalon exposes the limitations of adaptive and rational expectations models and, by means of the perceived risk of loss, calls attention to the speculative bubbles that lacked the positive displacement discussed in Kindleberger's model of financial crises. He ultimately extrapolates Allaisian theory into a pragmatic approach to investor behavior and the natural instability of financial markets. He concludes with the policy implications for governments and regulators. Balanced and coherent, this book will be invaluable to researchers working in macreconomics, financial economics, behavioral finance, decision theory, and the history of economic thought.

Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics

Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics PDF Author: Fredj Jawadi
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319987143
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 214

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Book Description
Written in honor of Emeritus Professor Georges Prat (University of Paris Nanterre, France), this book includes contributions from eminent authors on a range of topics that are of interest to researchers and graduates, as well as investors and portfolio managers. The topics discussed include the effects of information and transaction costs on informational and allocative market efficiency, bubbles and stock price dynamics, paradox of rational expectations and the principle of limited information, uncertainty and expectation hypotheses, oil price dynamics, and nonlinearity in asset price dynamics.

Unsettled Expectations

Unsettled Expectations PDF Author: Eva Mackey
Publisher: Fernwood Publishing
ISBN: 1552668983
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 310

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Book Description
What do local conflicts about land rights tell us about Indigenous-settler relations and the challenges and possibilities of decolonization? In Unsettled Expectations, Eva Mackey draws on ethnographic case studies about land rights conflicts in Canada and the U.S. to argue that critical analysis of present-day disputes over land, belonging and sovereignty will help us understand how colonization is reproduced today and how to challenge it. Employing theoretical approaches from Indigenous and settler colonial studies, and in the context of critical historical and legal analysis, Mackey urges us to rethink the assumptions of settler certainty that underpin current conflicts between settlers and Indigenous peoples and reveals settler privilege to be a doomed fantasy of entitlement. Finally, Mackey draws on case studies of Indigenous-settler alliances to show how embracing difficult uncertainty can be an integral part of undoing settler privilege and a step toward decolonization.