Author: Dennis V. Lindley
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470055472
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 268
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Book Description
A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill." Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules--craftily laid out in the book--that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science. With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability and: * Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, its truths, and its falsehoods * Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century about uncertainty * Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face of uncertainty * Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentieth century * Shows readers how to discern if another person--whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist--is talking sense, posing the right questions, or obtaining sound answers Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts and operations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for all students who have probability or statistics as part of their course, even at the most introductory level.
Author: Joseph B. Kadane
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1439861625
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 494
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Book Description
An intuitive and mathematical introduction to subjective probability and Bayesian statistics.An accessible, comprehensive guide to the theory of Bayesian statistics, Principles of Uncertainty presents the subjective Bayesian approach, which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods.
Author: Kristine C. Harper
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 022659792X
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 328
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Book Description
Weather control. Juxtaposing those two words is enough to raise eyebrows in a world where even the best weather models still fail to nail every forecast, and when the effects of climate change on sea level height, seasonal averages of weather phenomena, and biological behavior are being watched with interest by all, regardless of political or scientific persuasion. But between the late nineteenth century—when the United States first funded an attempt to “shock” rain out of clouds—and the late 1940s, rainmaking (as it had been known) became weather control. And then things got out of control. In Make It Rain, Kristine C. Harper tells the long and somewhat ludicrous history of state-funded attempts to manage, manipulate, and deploy the weather in America. Harper shows that governments from the federal to the local became helplessly captivated by the idea that weather control could promote agriculture, health, industrial output, and economic growth at home, or even be used as a military weapon and diplomatic tool abroad. Clear fog for landing aircraft? There’s a project for that. Gentle rain for strawberries? Let’s do it! Enhanced snowpacks for hydroelectric utilities? Check. The heyday of these weather control programs came during the Cold War, as the atmosphere came to be seen as something to be defended, weaponized, and manipulated. Yet Harper demonstrates that today there are clear implications for our attempts to solve the problems of climate change.
Author: Walter Lefferts
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : United States
Languages : en
Pages : 368
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Book Description
Author: Andrew Sobel
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0471406163
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 258
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Book Description
Professionals who work with clients or large accounts can create lifetime relationships based on these well-researched secrets. Based drawing from extensive interviews with client executives, Making Rain offers a series of provocative insights on how to shed the expert-for-hire label and develop long-term advisory relationships. Exploding the popular myth of the "Rainmaker," a dated and dysfunctional figure that clients no longer welcome, Andrew Sobel argues that any professional can learn to "make rain" on an ongoing basis with existing clients by developing a special set of skills, attitudes, and strategies. These innovative tips and techniques from a recognized leader in the field of professional services will enable any consultant, salesperson, or service professional to create enduring client loyalty.
Author: William M. Adams Adams
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317964969
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 241
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Book Description
First published in 1992, this title offers an experienced and constructive evaluation of the ways in which water resources have been developed in Africa. Adams argues that the best hope of productive development lies in working and engaging with local people and using local knowledge of the environment effectively. Modern, large-scale developments that have largely been ineffective are examined, and emphasis is placed on the importance of using the skills and concerns of those affected, such as small farmers, to develop ingenious water projects – an approach that can be applied worldwide. This is an interesting and relevant title, which will be of particular value to those with an interest in the developments in water resource conservation over the past two decades.
![Hints for an essay on anemology and ombrology. With a weather almanac. [Afterw.] Ombrological almanac PDF](https://books.google.com/books/content/images/frontcover/EvQNAAAAQAAJ?fife=w80-h100)
Author: Peter Legh
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 536
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Book Description
Author: Charles Yoe
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1439857490
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 586
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Book Description
In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know—and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don’t know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner that is consistent with the risk models of all communities of practice. It answers the questions "what is risk analysis?" and "how do I do this?" Distilling the common principles of the many risk tribes and dialects into serviceable definitions and narratives, the book provides a foundation for the practice of risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all walks of life. In the first part of the book, readers learn the language, models, and concepts of risk analysis and its three component tasks—risk management, assessment, and communication. The second part of the book supplies the tools, techniques, and methodologies to help readers apply the principles. From problem identification and brainstorming to model building and choosing a probability distribution, the author walks readers through the how-to of risk assessment. Addressing the critical task of risk communication, he explains how to present the results of assessments and how to develop effective messages. The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. It describes the principles in a manner that empowers readers to begin the practice of risk analysis, to better understand and use the models and practice of their individual fields, and to gain access to the rich and sophisticated professional literature on risk analysis. Additional exercises as well as a free student version of the Palisade Corporation DecisionTools® Suite software and files used in the preparation of this book are available for download.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Atmospheric ozone
Languages : en
Pages : 96
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Book Description
Author: Michael A. Toman
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1351161598
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 583
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Book Description
Over the years, a large and growing literature on the economics of climate change has developed. Within this volume the contributors have included a wide range of journal essays that consider the impact of climate change on specific sectors; goods and services; the costs and benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation; and policy design for mitigation, including both domestic instruments and issues related to international agreements.
