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Author: Myles Lavan
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1009302035
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 323
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Book Description
Historians constantly wrestle with uncertainty, never more so than when attempting quantification, yet the field has given little attention to the nature of uncertainty and strategies for managing it. This volume proposes a powerful new approach to uncertainty in ancient history, drawing on techniques widely used in the social and natural sciences. It shows how probability-based techniques used to manage uncertainty about the future or the present can be applied to uncertainty about the past. A substantial introduction explains the use of probability to represent uncertainty. The chapters that follow showcase how the technique can offer leverage on a wide range of problems in ancient history, from the incidence of expropriation in the Classical Greek world to the money supply of the Roman empire.
Author: Myles Lavan
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1009302035
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 323
Get Book Here
Book Description
Historians constantly wrestle with uncertainty, never more so than when attempting quantification, yet the field has given little attention to the nature of uncertainty and strategies for managing it. This volume proposes a powerful new approach to uncertainty in ancient history, drawing on techniques widely used in the social and natural sciences. It shows how probability-based techniques used to manage uncertainty about the future or the present can be applied to uncertainty about the past. A substantial introduction explains the use of probability to represent uncertainty. The chapters that follow showcase how the technique can offer leverage on a wide range of problems in ancient history, from the incidence of expropriation in the Classical Greek world to the money supply of the Roman empire.
Author: Arthur Levine
Publisher: JHU Press
ISBN: 1421442582
Category : Education
Languages : en
Pages : 334
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Book Description
How will America's colleges and universities adapt to remarkable technological, economic, and demographic change? The United States is in the midst of a profound transformation the likes of which hasn't been seen since the Industrial Revolution, when America's classical colleges adapted to meet the needs of an emerging industrial economy. Today, as the world shifts to an increasingly interconnected knowledge economy, the intersecting forces of technological innovation, globalization, and demographic change create vast new challenges, opportunities, and uncertainties. In this great upheaval, the nation's most enduring social institutions are at a crossroads. In The Great Upheaval, Arthur Levine and Scott Van Pelt examine higher and postsecondary education to see how it has changed to become what it is today—and how it might be refitted for an uncertain future. Taking a unique historical, cross-industry perspective, Levine and Van Pelt perform a 360-degree survey of American higher education. Combining historical, trend, and comparative analyses of other business sectors, they ask • how much will colleges and universities change, what will change, and how will these changes occur? • will institutions of higher learning be able to adapt to the challenges they face, or will they be disrupted by them? • will the industrial model of higher education be repaired or replaced? • why is higher education more important than ever? The book is neither an attempt to advocate for a particular future direction nor a warning about that future. Rather, it looks objectively at the contexts in which higher education has operated—and will continue to operate. It also seeks to identify likely developments that will aid those involved in steering higher education forward, as well as the many millions of Americans who have a stake in its future. Concluding with a detailed agenda for action, The Great Upheaval is aimed at policy makers, college administrators, faculty, trustees, and students, as well as general readers and people who work for nonprofits facing the same big changes.
Author: Robert G. Sutter
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 1538105357
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 337
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Book Description
This comprehensive and balanced assessment of the historical and contemporary determinants of Sino-American relations, now updated through 2017, explains the conflicted engagement between the two governments. Offering a welcome richness of discussion and analysis, Sutter explores the twists and turns of the relationship over the past 200 years.
Author: Stephen Dunn
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1134469462
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 257
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Book Description
This important new book introduces, analyzes and takes forward a post-Keynesian theory of the firm. It makes a vital contribution to the conceptualisation of uncertainty that is consistent with the methodological presuppositions of Post Keynesian economics. The author attempts to make a positive contribution to the development of Post Keynesian economics by refuting allegations of incoherence, detailing some of the salient implications of a transmutable conception of economic processes and then starting to explore what this means for how Post Keynesians conceptualise uncertainty. The book argues that the Post Keynesian distinctive view of time, understood as a non-deterministic open systems process, is a core and defining characteristic which is linked to its theoretical discussion of money and the principle of effective demand. Covering areas such as the coherence of Post Keynesianism, the future of Post Keynesian economics and Keynesian methodological debates, this book is useful reading for all Post Keynesian scholars with a strong interest in economic methodology and the philosophical underpinnings of economics.
Author: Annika Witte
Publisher: Göttingen University Press
ISBN: 3863953606
Category : Petroleum
Languages : en
Pages : 278
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Book Description
The discovery of oil in Uganda in 2006 ushered in an oil-age era with new prospects of unforeseen riches. However, after an initial exploration boom developments stalled. Unlike other countries with major oil discoveries, Uganda has been slow in developing its oil. In fact, over ten years after the first discoveries, there is still no oil. During the time of the research for this book between 2012 and 2015, Uganda’s oil had not yet fully materialised but was becoming. The overarching characteristic of this research project was waiting for the big changes to come: a waiting characterised by indeterminacy. There is a timeline but every year it gets expanded and in 2018 having oil still seems to belong to an uncertain future. This book looks at the waiting period as a time of not-yet-ness and describes the practices of future- and resource-making in Uganda. How did Ugandans handle the new resource wealth and how did they imagine their future with oil to be? This ethnography is concerned with Uganda’s oil and the way Ugandans anticipated different futures with it: promising futures of wealth and development and disturbing futures of destruction and suffering. The book works out how uncertainty was an underlying feature of these anticipations and how risks and risk discourses shaped the imaginations of possible futures. Much of the talk around the oil involved the dichotomy of blessing or curse and it was not clear, which one the oil would be. Rather than adding another assessment of what the future with oil will be like, this book describes the predictions and prophesies as an essential part of how resources are being made. This ethnography shows how various actors in Uganda, from the state, the oil industry, the civil society, and the extractive communities, have tried to negotiate their position in the oil arena. Annika Witte argues in this book that by establishing their risks and using them as power resources actors can influence the becoming of oil as a resource and their own place in a petro-future. The book offers one of the first ethnographic accounts of Uganda’s oil and the negotiations that took place in an oil state to be.
Author: Henry N. Pollack
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139435442
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 259
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Book Description
Is the world warming due to the Greenhouse Effect? Can nuclear weapon arsenals be relied upon without periodic testing? Is the world running out of oil? What action should be taken against an outbreak of foot-and-mouth or BSE? Why can't scientists provide certain answers to these and many other questions? The uncertainty of science is puzzling. It arises when scientists have more than one answer to a problem or disagree amongst themselves. In this engaging book, Henry Pollack guides the reader through the maze of contradiction and uncertainty, acquainting them with the ways that uncertainty arises in science, how scientists accommodate and make use of uncertainty, and how in the face of uncertainty they reach their conclusions. Taking examples from recent science headlines and every day life, Uncertain Science ... Uncertain World enables the reader to evaluate uncertainty from their own perspectives, and find out more about how science actually works.
Author: Arie Kruglanski
Publisher: Random House
ISBN: 0241467721
Category : Self-Help
Languages : en
Pages : 211
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Book Description
TO ACHIEVE THE EXTRAORDINARY, FIRST EMBRACE THE UNKNOWN . . . Discover the definitive guide to our fear of uncertainty, and how we can stop it from holding us back 'Groundbreaking' MARTIN SELIGMAN 'One of my very favorite psychologists in the world' ANGELA DUCKWORTH 'This is the book we've been waiting for' CAROL DWECK, bestselling author of Mindset: The New Psychology of Success ____________ Do you fear uncertainty? Why is the unknown so paralysing? And how can we use doubt to our advantage? Our safe modern world has wired us to fear the unknown, rather than use it to our benefit. But what if there was a way of turning that uncertainty into our greatest strength? Imagine being able to make important decisions without anxiety. Imagine being the calm at the centre of every storm. In Uncertain, the world-renowned psychologist Professor Arie Kruglanski shows us that there's only one certain way to face the unknown, and that is to fundamentally change the way we perceive it. This definitive book will transform the way you think about the unknown. Suddenly, you'll stop fearing uncertainty and learn to not only face it, but also harness the power that comes with it. Don't let uncertainty rule your life. Instead, embrace it and achieve the extraordinary. ____________ 'This groundbreaking book is the place to go to discover how to embrace uncertainty and turn it to your growth and benefit' Martin Seligman, author of The Hope Circuit 'One of my very favorite psychologists in the world tackles a subject that is both timeless and timely [and] shows us that though uncertainty is inevitable, how we react to it is not' Angela Duckworth, bestselling author of Grit 'This is the book we've been waiting for. With his tremendous spirit, wit, knowledge, and wisdom, Kruglanski give us a book that helps us understand and navigate the uncertain world we live in. It's both based on science and filled with humanity-with deep compassion and benevolent guidance. It is a book for our time' Carol Dweck, author of Mindset: The New Psychology of Success 'If you're not sure if you need this book, then you do. Original, insightful, and thought-provoking, the world's expert on the psychology of uncertainty reveals what science can tell us about our lives on the razor's edge' Daniel Gilbert, the New York Times bestselling author of Stumbling on Happiness 'If there's anything I'm certain about, is that you'll love this book' Ayelet Fishbach, author of Get It Done
Author: Melanie E. Kreye
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 131700549X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 139
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Book Description
Uncertainty affects us in our everyday lives, and in a wide range of situations but how do individuals and indeed organisations respond to uncertainty and how does it impact their decision-making and actions? Based on the latest developments in academic research, the author offers solid advice on how to manage uncertainty in every-day life, bringing a new perspective to these issues and extrapolating this to offer implications for an organisational and managerial context. The author brings this emerging area of research to a wider audience by: Tying together insights from various fields including psychology, engineering, business and management. Creating a framework for usefully applying the research concepts in every-day life. Extrapolating insights from the psychology of individual decision makers to the organisational context and managerial decision-making. Creating highly applicable and impactful recommendations for how managers, organisations, and every day people can understand and manage uncertainty in their life. The book is divided into two main parts. Part I deals with the behaviour of individuals facing uncertainty and includes accessible explanations and examples of every-day applications, while Part II deals with behaviour in organisations facing uncertainty, where insights from Part I are combined and related to the organisational and work context to explore how, for example, (mis)-perceptions and decision-making biases impact managerial life. This is a must read for both managers and those who are seeking to better understand their own behaviour and management approach.
Author: Frédéric Pajak
Publisher: New York Review of Books
ISBN: 168137286X
Category : Biography & Autobiography
Languages : en
Pages : 193
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Book Description
An illustrated artist's memoir of the motivations, feelings, ideas, figures (including Samuel Beckett and Walter Benjamin), travels, and love affairs that have influenced his life. The writer and artist Frédéric Pajak was ten when he began to dream of “a book mixing words and pictures: snippets of adventure, random memories, maxims, ghosts, forgotten heroes, trees, the raging sea,” but it was not until he was in his forties that this dream took form as Uncertain Manifesto. The utterly original book that he produced is a memoir born of reading and a meditation on the lives and ideas, the motivations, feelings, and fates of some of Pajak’s heroes: Samuel Beckett and the artist Bram van Velde, and, especially, Walter Benjamin, whose travels to Moscow, Naples, and Ibiza, whose experiences with hashish, whose faltering marriage and love affairs and critique of modern experience Pajak re-creates and reflects on in word and image. Pajak’s moody black-and white drawings accompany the text throughout, though their bearing on it is often indirect and all the more absorbing for that. Between word and image, the reader is drawn into a mysterious space that is all Pajak’s as he seeks to evoke vanished histories and to resist a modern world more and more given over to a present without a past. With the support of the Swiss Arts Council Pro Helvetia
Author: Daniel Kahneman
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107268168
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 574
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Book Description
The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Individual chapters discuss the representativeness and availability heuristics, problems in judging covariation and control, overconfidence, multistage inference, social perception, medical diagnosis, risk perception, and methods for correcting and improving judgments under uncertainty. About half of the chapters are edited versions of classic articles; the remaining chapters are newly written for this book. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas of research and application rather than describing single experimental studies. This book will be useful to a wide range of students and researchers, as well as to decision makers seeking to gain insight into their judgments and to improve them.
